Last night was going excellent until the 80% chalk which I had down as a fade decided he would get bailed out with not one, but TWO overtime periods and that just ruined everything for me. The WR model on the Dashboard remains fucking on fire as it pulled out a 0.3% gem in the top three. I will keep cautioning though in the first 2-3 weeks that there will be some stars who dont appear at the top because of roles changing and tonight we have an example of that with North Carolina’s top offense on the slate and our first real glimpse at seeing Sam Howell perform without all his weapons from a year ago who are now in the NFL (Williams, Carter, Brown, Newsome).
Here is a list of the games for this Friday evening
- Duke vs Charlotte
- Michigan State vs Northwestern
- Old Dominion vs Wake Forest
- South Dakota St vs Colorado St
- UNC vs Va Tech
- South Dakota vs Kansas
- Northern Colorado vs Colorado
As you can see, we have a couple more FCS teams included in here and wow what a way to spend your Friday night if you want to watch South Dakota vs Kansas play football! Below are the games which I would focus on the most.
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
This game features the two biggest name schools (from a football standpoint) and the best known Quarterback in Sam Howell. North Carolina has a bunch of under priced weapons on this slate as they are filling in for players who graduated to the NFL. Expect this to be a popular game and one which is higher scoring and close. They played in a shootout last year.
Duke vs Charlotte
Duke is a terrible football team, no way around it but somehow they are a -6 point favorite here and I am hammering the 49ers side (that’s Charlotte btw). I’m strongly considering team stacks on this slate tonight with Charlotte being one that has a unique QB-RB stack due to price. Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds ($5,000) and RB Shadrick Byrd ($4,200) can get you a combined 40 points tonight or upside and on a slate where we don’t need value even that is hard to overlook as a nice combination. Duke wins through the ground if they win.
Sam Hartman – Wake Forest – $8,900
Is he ovepriced since he never runs? Yes. Is he going to get you 250 and probably 3 touchdowns? Yes. So this is the Sam you need tonight. Hartman isn’t the skill level or behind the O-Line that Howell has but he has something the other Sam doesn’t and that is the best WR on tonights slate in Jaquarii Roberson. The 30% target share which he’ll throw to Roberson against O-DUH who is playing up in level tonight should be featured often and heavy allowing Hartman and Wake to roll big tonight.
Brendon Lewis – Colorado – $6,600
Another heavy favorite as the Buffalo are 35 point favorites and probably cover today against Northern Colorado. Lewis has rushing upside and the ground game is the attack spot for Colorado. I will opt to roll with Broussard as the RB stud tonight but I can see Lewis being the vulture who limits him some. This honestly smells like the type of game where they are able to impose their will up front with an O-Line vs D-Line advantage and let Lewis get some comfortable runs and big plays. He appeared in their bowl game last season and sparked off a 44-yard TD rush to ignite things for the Buffalo in a blowout.
Sam Howell – North Carolina – $8,400
Welcome to the Sam Howell show for 2021 as he is projected to be a top Quarterback option once again for us every single week in DFS play. He will open against a Hokies defense which has certainly not been the same over the last few season as they were for many years but they’re not a dominant push over in the passing game. None the less, Howell is one of a few solid QB choices tonight and should accumulate enough volume to have a good floor game tonight.
RB is deep enough tonight to load up on 3 running backs and don’t be worried about a RB+QB on the slate tonight.
Jarek Broussard – Colorado – $7,900
Normally I am not a big fan of playing guys who are heavy favorites in a blowout spot like this but Broussard should hit 100 yards before they opt to let some other kids get work in. Northern Colorado wasn’t very good at stopping the run against lesser competition historically and should not be in line to slow down Broussard who averaged 5.7 YPC and faces a defense which at best allowed 5.8 YPC back in 2019 when they last played. This is an auto play and take him even at limited work.
Mateo Durant -Duke – $7,200
My guy Deon Jackson is gone now but Durant is a solid returning back who should still get a good portion of carries in a system which rotates RB’s. The Charlotte rush defense is terrible but the only way Duke can win this game in my opinion is through the ground game.
Ty Chandler – UNC – $5,200
One of the reasons UNC was so good on offense a year ago was how dominant their run game is. They face a VT team who I sneakily liked to attack on the ground — especially when VT was at home as they will be tonight. This is a fantastic value play tonight and one you can pair with Howell even if you want to just load up on Tar Heels.
Shadrick Byrd – Charlotte – $4,200
This is actually a game I expect to be close and a good back and forth spot. Nobody thinks Duke is good and Charlotte being only 6.5 point dogs at home tonight are a really good spot to buy into for an upset. Duke has been terrible stopping the run in years past which opens the door for Byrd who is a transfer from Iowa and should get > 50% of their backfield carries tonight.
Jaqaurri Robinson – Wake – $8,600
Pay for him, they will feature him early to get him his stat padding game against a bad team.
Victor Tucker – Charlotte – $5,300
Tucker returns with a near 30% target share a season ago. You put that on my slate with a 5k range price tag and on a team I like to win in an upset and I am buying into it.
Tre Turner – VT – $6,200
The slate feels thin at WR for me so lets focus on a game where gameflow could help out with volume. VT does have a decent enough offense to keep up with Carolina and that will have to be done through the air. With Turner and Tayvion Robinson returning to the Hokies they should once again see 40%+ of targets and Turner seemed to have good chemistry with Burmeister late last season.
Josh Downs – UNC – $7,200 & Khafre Brown – UNC – $3,000
With all the targets vacated from this offense the common safe approach is to take Josh Downs as the next man up. He projects to become WR1 for North Carolina and would be the high end player to take a shot on. If you want to get a little bullish though the $3,000 min price on Khafre Brown is almost a no brainer for lineups that pay up for both Sam’s at QB. He should see a good bump in usage and at min price only needs a few catches to pay off.
OTHER INFORMATION
CORE BUILD
Either Sam (Howell or Hartman) to me will be fine, but I like the idea of rolling w/ Hartman. That said, pairing one of them with Brandon Lewis allows to get Jaq Roberson, so do that.
- Brandon Lewis
- Jarek Broussard
- Jaqaurri Roberson
POTENTIAL SLATE BREAKER
- Brendon Lewis
BETS
- Charlotte +6
- Colorado -35.5
- SDSU/CSU UNDER 51