We are one week away from me being in a much much much happier place in terms of content production on weekends. We’ll have two weeks of College under our belt and the 2021 data will start to integrate in. The NFL will have had its initial burn as well and we’ll then officially be into a routine mode which is very big for me.
That said, I feel like we had a great first real week of the College Football season. Personally I was someone who grew up (In DFS sense) on college football DFS on FanDuel and used to love gaining tickets for their King of the Campus contest. Long gone are the days when that leadership at FanDuel was there and so I haven’t played much there for CFB in recent years because they run these all day slates and it doesn’t match the breakdowns I am doing in this article. So why do I bring this up? Because last week I used my analysis but also the now added FanDuel slates on the Dashboard to look across Early and Late slates to find a FanDuel lineup using the optimizer. And what do you know, it took down the Grand-Daddy $33 for a $2500 return last week. Not bad eh? DK was just over a 2x return as the Maryland stack came through but ultimately a few one offs were not as explosive as I had hoped.
Lets keep it rolling this week and then when the routine hits we’re going to have those 4-5 figure days like we always do with College.
This article will cover the MAIN DraftKings slate games which includes
- Oregon vs Ohio State
- Pittsburgh vs Tennessee
- South Carolina vs East Carolina
- Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
- Florida vs South Florida
- Rutgers vs Syracuse
- Toledo vs Notre Dame
- Ball State vs Penn State
- California vs TCU
- Texas A&M vs Colorado
- UAB vs Georgia
- and Iowa vs Iowa State
Phew… What a mix match of teams.
This is your prototypical early season slate where we have lots of lopsided games in terms of DFS exposure. I could make a case maybe for an upset here or there popping up but for the most part there are some strong home favorites that should produce DFS results greater than chasing an upset scenario. I mean, the best game just based off a close spread and total would be South Carolina vs East Carolina and no I am not in the mood to stack Cocks and Pirates this early in the season thank you.
Overall this is more of a ‘team’ stack or one off kind of slate in my mind but there are some favorable run it back singular plays in these top 3 spots for me today.
Oregon vs Ohio State (-14.5)
I can hear Gus Johnson’s voice as I try to picture this game being played today at high noon at the shoe as both big name schools come in with a game under their belt. However, it is Ohio State who has a clear advantage in this one not only with depth and home field advantage but also because Oregon is potentially without their best defensive-end in this game which doesn’t bode well for getting after CJ Stroud and the Ohio State passing attack. O-O-O… O-laaaaaveee. The Olave ($7,200) and Garrett Wilson ($5,900) show is going to be a problem all season long for just about anyone they have to face and should be front and center to go up to ~20 DK points today. But if things are going to really go well for Ohio State then we’re going to see Miyan Williams have another good game and being at home this week he would be a nice third leg in a stack with Stroud & either of the WR.
For the Ducks, Johnny Johnson III ($5,100) is the most consistent weapon for them but they are likely to try and rely upon CJ Verdell and the legs of Anthony Brown to do damage, so Brown would be the likely run it back S-FLEX option here at $6,900.
Ball State vs Penn State (-22.5)
This is all Penn State as their bounce back season rolls along off a big week one victory over Wisconsin. One could point to a let down spot here and I do see that for Notre Dame in their similar setup coming back home to take on Toledo — but Penn State has the better stack scenario with QB Sean Clifford ($8,100) and the top WR overall on the slate in Johan Dotson ($7,000). They should carve up Ball State for at least one big play in this one, and it’s a matter of how much does Clifford want to stat pad for Dotson today because his 30%+ target share is going to be front and center for at least one half and should produce a 100 yard game.
We have a run it back star for Ball State in Justin Hall, but you gotta suspect Penn State will do everything to try and take him out of the game, so I would consider YoHeinz Tyler a nice little contrarian pivot for only $4,200 if stacking this game.
Texas A&M (-17) vs Colorado
I have done enough DFS content to know that simply listing a game or team within 5,000 feet of the phrase “stacks” auto triggers every human (or robot?) reading this into thinking HEY — THAT GAME IS GOING TO GO OFF TO THE MOON, :rocketship.emoji!!!!:
Well, no, that isn’t what I am proclaiming here, but this is my sleeper game of the week to be very competitive and potentially produce an upset and if that game script flips in favor of Colorado then yes we could have a potential DFS gold mine game that is going way under owned. Texas A&M is coming off an easy win where they played sloppy and has to travel on the road into altitude with a Freshman QB in Haynes King. He’s going to have to depend on Isaiah Spiller ($6,700 is too cheap), Ainias Smith ($7,600) and Jalen Wydermyer ($5,000) who are all very capable of giving him a strong supporting cast to win this game as -17 point road favorites.
But I can’t see them covering, and even with the Aggies having a strong defense, this is the type of game where they have a little early bump in the road defensively. It’s not a look ahead game but the Brendon Lewis-Jarek Broussard combination for Colorado having a good rushing day tomorrow would not shock me.
Immediately with no great ‘game stack’ scenarios, we down grade most Quarterbacks today because the upside is not only limited but to me it presents fewer scenarios to lock in two Quarterbacks. This is a deeper slate at RB & WR so I would only have 1 QB in any lineup which isn’t a game stack as referenced above.
Sean Clifford – Penn St.
Penn State has a lot more to prove in beating up on a MAC team than Notre Dame does and for that reason Clifford is the QB who I have the most confidence in finishing with 300+ yards and 4 touchdowns this afternoon. He’s a proven QB who has a glorious passing game advantage as Ball State allowed 65% completion % a year ago and almost 70% in their first game this year. For $8,100 he doesn’t give you any rushing upside, but he’s as safe as they come.
C.J. Stroud – Ohio State
Stroud is going to have the same reasoning behind him most of the time when he is on our radar and that is — if you are going to roll two Ohio State WR for great reasons then just take the Quarterback along with them. I would not make Stroud my primary Quarterback today unless you are going for a full Ohio State stack in this game, in which case it’s Stroud + Brown as a 2-QB play.
Brendon Lewis – Colorado
Lewis is my value/sleeper Quarterback today, as I mentioned I like the Buffalo to be a bad spot for the Aggies this early in the season and Lewis gives you a sub 6k Quarterback with some rushing ability while playing at home.
Wait, Leddie Brown isn’t on this slate??? Damn, cancel the contests…. I kid, I kid. We have some strong work horses here even without the chosen RB cover boy.
Kevin Harris – South Carolina
Poor Kevin Harris, the team around him is dog shit in terms of proven talent but he is not a bad football player by any stretch. And while we generally prefer home running backs, Harris has been no stranger to being their work horse on the road where he logged season best performances of 100, 171, 126, 243 and 210 yards in five road games during 2020. He’s a road warrior who should see the ball 17-25 times if South Carolina has any desire of winning this football game.
Zamir White – Georgia
Second RB is a big question mark and I have my fade below, but often times when you want to fade a high priced stud you should do it with another one who is going to be much lower owned. Georgia QB J.T. Daniels is likely to miss this start today and Georgia is almost assured to lean on their ground game at home vs UAB who is going to feel like facing the Citadel after they just went up against Clemson a week ago in a 10-3 game. Zamir dominated the touches out of the backfield in that game and even if it balances more to a 50/50 share with James Cook he should still do heavy damage vs UAB who allowed 4+ on the ground a year ago and 4.7+ against a terrible Jacksonville State in their first game. Zamir is my contrarian stud to have a solid game.
Isaiah Spiller – Texas A&M
Spiller and Kyren Williams are neck and neck for the third RB today in my view but it’s Spiller who is in a much better game to potentially have to pay off and as one of the top backs in the nation he should be our chalky take the points and move on today because $6,700 is the mistake pricing today.
FADE
Breece Hall (Iowa State) – I made a fairly bold statement in the article a week ago and it was that Breece Hall is this year’s Chubba Hubbard. Which was not intended to be a compliment because as you recall Hubbard had a rough final season at Oklahoma State a year ago and I just got this gut feeling that Hall, who logged a ton of work a year ago (279 carries for 1572 yards in 2020) would just struggle out the gate this year. He went for 69 yards on just 3.0 ypc a week ago and now
There is a clear big 3 for me today at WR.
Taj Harris – Syracuse
When I saw my boy Harris was on this slate and at home I immediately knew he would be in the write-up somehow. Then when I saw his cheap $5,100 price tag against Rutgers who let up 60% of their touchdowns defensively in the passing game a year ago while allowing 60% completion percentage, then well, I knew we had our top guy. For those who don’t remember, Harris is the alpha of alpha’s and should see all the targets today for Syracuse.
Jahan Dotson – Penn State
I whiffed on our slate breaker play out of the gate a week ago, but Dotson is getting that label today. His big play ability is one of the best in the nation and should continue to have a terrific start to 2021 against Ball State’s lowly ranked pass defense.
Garrett Wilson – Ohio State
We want to spend up at QB1 and probably have two higher priced Running Backs today, which makes Wilson fit in more as the ‘optimal’ WR pick. His ownership should be 2 to 3x that of Chris Olave however so I shouldn’t have to tell you how much of a leverage scenario that is, but I think you are mostly hoping Wilson gets hurt or the TD variance goes your way. They should remain just about even every game out, so $1300 is a nice savings for Wilson.
Taysir Mack – Pittsburgh
There’s some good value on this slate at WR but Taysir Mack is one of the ones flying under the radar. Pitt has a veteran Quarterback so going on the road against a poor passing defense should yield a safe spot for Mack and Addison to have solid games today. His $4,400 DK price makes him a great FLEX option.
Other value WR options
- Jalen Wydermyer ($5,000) – Texas A&M
- Johnny Johnson III (5,100) – Oregon
- Parker Washington ($4,000) – Penn State
Stars getting overlooked
Justin Hall – Ball State
Chalk Report
Isaiah Spiller being about $1000 too cheap is likely the projected highest owned player on the entire slate and in a potentially really good game. I wouldn’t miss out on him. Aside from that it’s going to be spread out across Ohio State, Penn State and Breece Hall / Kyren Williams at RB. Your leverage position today is going to be RB fading one or two of the chalkier RB’s and likely taking a gamble at Quarterback if you want to come off PSU or OSU but I don’t see that being the right move so I’m not recommending it. Pivot at RB.
Fade of the Day
Breece Hall
The Gladiator Play (Lower owned guy who can break slate)
Zamir White rushing for 150 & 3 TD
Where to allocate Salary?
Running Back
The Tailgate Core (Core for DraftKings Lineups)
Sean Clifford – Isaiah Spiller – Zamir White – Taj Harris – Garrett Wilson
Favorite Bet(s)
Ohio State -14.5
Georgia -23.5
Colorado +17
Best FD Players
This is the part of the article where I just realized I need a view on the Dashboard (which, if you aren’t using it, then what are you doing?) that breaks down the full FanDuel slate. I will put a ticket in with the developer to do that. Ah yes, he just responded to me and said **** off. No, I kid, I am the developer in charge of that mess, so I’ll try to work on that for next weeks slate.
Spiller and Wilson are your top plays on FanDuel. Kevin Harris is a whopping 10.3k there so my second RB would have to be Zamir at 9k.