Friday night lights, the College Football variety. Here is the quad group of DFS games tonight.
Liberty, Liberty, Liberrrty vs Syracuse (TAJ HARRRISSSSSSSSSSSSS)
Middle Tennessee State vs Charlotte
UNLV vs Fresno State
Wake Forest vs Virginia
Wake Forest vs Virginia
Two offenses that are led by reliable Quarterback options in a game with an extremely high 68.5 over/under (10 points higher than the rest of the field) and in a spot where I am extremely confident in one side to roll through this game.
Virginia is a good football team and Brennan Armstrong is going to be a problem all year long for opposing defenses. The 6’2 Junior QB who has some rushing ability was stuffed by UNC in a shootout last week where he resulted in -16 yards on 8 carries. It was a script that forced him to throw to keep up and that’s a little excessive as he threw 54 times but still managed to post his third straight game over 67% completion and second straight with 4+ touchdowns. I love Armstrong and the Wahoos at home here to have success through the air and ground.
On the flip side Sam Hartman will account for 2 touchdowns with one of them certainly going to Jaquarri Roberson, his stud WR that he will need on the road on a hostile environment. Just plug those two in along with Amstrong and move on tonight.
Brennan Armstrong (UVA)
Armstrong has the highest upside on the slate, should play fast and play well at home.
Sam Hartman (WAKE)
Perfect storm scenario for Hartman as a game stack S-FLEX Quarterback vs Virginia. The way to beat the Cavs is actually through the ground and UNC was able to do that last week but ultimately wound up trusting their star QB to make some dominant throws. What I see happening here is Hartman gets enough via the ground, including one rushing TD, to go along with having to pass as Wake cannot slow down UVA and thus he winds up with a game that has 225+ yards passing and 50+ rushing with a touchdown via the ground and the air. We will take that floor with some additional upside.
Ronnie Rivers (FRESNO)
Fresno is coming off a big upset last weekend over UCLA in Southern California. They return home as heavy favorites against a bad UNLV team which is giving up 4.84 yards per carry on the ground. Spin up some Ronnie Rivers on DK who for some reason is only $5,600 despite being the clear lead back for Fresno once again getting a 5:1 carry split over anyone else in this backfield. UNLV has a bad pass defense, so I wouldn’t expect Fresno to only do it on the ground but Rivers does get 10% of their targets, so there’s a great chance we see him get a touchdown both through the air and on the ground.
Shadrick Byrd (Charlotte)
Such a great name if you ask me. He’s getting 10+ carries and is a nice value ($4700) running back at home for a team who faces a defense that is on the + side when factoring the number of rushing touchdowns they allow. Lock him in as your value RB tonight.
Christian Beal-Smith (Wake)
Worthy of consideration in a full game stack scenario
Taj Harris (Syracuse)
Harris at home for only $5,000. He will get twice that in targets, so simply off catches he gets you 2x.
Jaquarri Roberson (Wake)
Consistently in College DFS whenever there is a short slate you wind up needing the stud WR and this is that guy.
Josh Kelly (Fresno)
I mentioned how Fresno could probably do whatever they want against UNLV here. UNLV gives up 73% completion rate and Kelly has seen 8+ targets in two of their last three games. He is the most likely to score the first TD tonight for Fresno.
Demario Douglas (Liberty)
25% of targets for Liberty against Syracuse defense which has benefited from not giving up a ton of yards in lower scoring games thus far but certainly isn’t playing much coverage defense yielding 70+% completion rate.
Chalk Report
Wake and UVA will be popular, but I don’t know how much Hartman really gains in this matchup, so going a little over on that game stack is a solid move tonight.
Fade of the Day
MTSU Players
Where to allocate Salary?
N/A on this slate.
The Tailgate Core (Core for DraftKings Lineups)
Armstrong, Hartman, Roberson, Harris
Favorite Bet(s)
UVA -3.5
Charlotte -3