Welcome to The Tailgate, I have finally broken down and given my College Article a Brand name much like we have Dongers Club, Ambush and Slapshot. I believe in every writer who is a part of The Ambush eventually having a style to contribute as their own brand and part of this is to establish who is providing what content for you over time. For the record if you think this name is dumb, just know that The Dongers Club is a known brand in multiple countries and municipalities — even Ohio, so I’m sure something as simple as The Tailgate can catch on for College Football Saturdays (and Thursdays, and Fridays, and … well, you get the idea). The runner up names were The Cathedral and Girls of the Big XII, but the Big XII, but it seems some magazine beat me to that idea long ago. So let’s kick off the Tailgate.
There are various CFB writers out there and I know some of them personally and believe they provide great insight on games. This is never going to be an article that is designed to raw dump every single player who is available and their stats across every game. Often times on the Main Saturday afternoon slates in fact we have 10+ games of which I’ll rule out 3-4 of them easily because we don’t need them — not even if we are doing more than a single lineup. This section is where I dive into the games that are going to be of most interest because the upside of stacking a game in College Football is greater than any other sport…. Well, cricket might be better, but I haven’t seen DFS cricket thankfully.
Top Game
West Virginia at Maryland
If this game was later in the season I would have drool all over my face at the prospects of a big time game, but Week 1 is going to produce more body tap blows than big knockout swings so it probably just settles in at the end of the day. West Virginia has a workhorse RB (featured below) who I love riding because he’ll get 80%+ of their carries, lots of goal line work and doesn’t wear down as the game moves along in Leddie Brown ($8,000). His match-up today couldn’t be much better as the Terps have consistently been weak vs the run allowing 230+ a season ago.
Maryland meanwhile is probably the sneaky stack on this slate. Tua’s younger brother Taulia (no I don’t bother trying to copy paste the last names or properly typing them) has two dynamic weapons at his disposal in Dontay Demus (6’3) and Rakim Jarrett (big play), not to mention one of the better TE Chigozeim Okonkwo who sat out 2020 and is a bargain today at $3,800. This is an offense that when the OL gives them a good effort will put up some huge games. This easily can turn into a Maryland blowout if the WVU offense turns the ball over.
WVU Plays: Leddie Brown (RB), Sam James (WR)
UMD Plays: Taulia Tagovailoa (QB), Dontay Demus Jr (WR), Rakim Jarrett (WR), Chigoziem Okonkwo (WR/TE)
Sneaky Game of the Day
Lousiana vs Texas
Let’s see what we get out of Texas with Sarkasian as their new head coach. Gone is my boy Sam Ehlinger but the weapons around new QB Hudson Card remain fairly good to consider and are reasonably priced on DK as well.
Lousiana is a very good pass defense returning and should funnel things to the ground for the Longhorns and Bijan Robinson as the lead RB in this offense. But the mid range value in Joshua Moore ($6,000) and Jordan Whittington is where I can see Texas having a good day.
All that said, the real juice is Louisiana Lafayette dual-threat Quarterback Levi Lewis, a $7,100 Senior QB looking to establish his mark as the true leader in this offense.
Game I am not hyped up about …
Alabama vs Miami
This is obviously the marquee game of the day. The problem in this spot is that Nick Saban has had an awfully long time to prepare for how to slow down D’Eriq King, who is a fantastic college Quarterback in DFS senses and is almost a year removed from an ACL injury. Alabama is not going to be the same team you have grown accustomed too in the last few seasons. They are going back to ground and pound offense with a kick your face in on defense and we’re just deeper and better than you overall style of play. So while this game has a ton of luster to it for viewing purposes and it might sound like the tempting DFS spot to go all in on, I can promise you this is just a 2 to 3 player spot at best.
Taulia Tagovailoa – Maryland – $7,200
Tau and Levi Lewis are my favorite QB per $ today and I would most certainly be playing Tau in a spot with 1 or 2 of his pass catching options. He has 4+ TD ability in my mind and if you trust what I wrote about Maryland then NOW is the time to capitalize on them at lower ownership.
Levi Lewis – Louisiana – $7,100
If they let him run he can carve up Texas on the ground. With Mitchell and Ragas gone this offense has opened up lots of opportunities and should remain a team that is efficient on the ground. The Longhorns defense does have some strength in the middle, but that tends to lean more for QB’s to get yardage outside than the traditional running game – which is why I like Lewis here. In his last two games at the end of 2020 Lewis ran 18 total times.
Spencer Rattler – Oklahoma – $9,700
Poor Tulane was going to have a nice Saturday afternoon home game down in New Orleans where Oklahoma had to come in and fight off the Louisiana heat, the hangover effect and an 11am start time on the road to cover against a sneaky Tulane team. Throw all that shit out the window now. Oklahoma should shred Tulane and then maybe pull up on the gas in the second half because they feel sorry for them. All this leads to Rattler having a productive day, however as we have seen so far the stud QB are not winding up as your #1 must have QB in the last two nights.
Deuce Vaughn – Kansas State – $6,300
It sounds like we could see Deuce get more catches this season and with his play-making ability, the 5-6 RB has potential to be a slate breaker at this price. He scored in all but one home game a season ago and should have good success against a defense which has to improve upon their 5.46 ypc allowed last year. Kansas State isn’t a great team, but the can beat Stanford at home and should rely upon Vaughn to get that done.
Leddie Brown – WVU – $8,000
The only concern I would have for Brown is that the game does turn into a full blown shootout and his touches become a little sparse and less goal line work in the 2nd half. But he’ll get to 70-90 yards with no problem today and is the most reliable weapon for WVU.
The following three guys are all viable plays this afternoon for FLEX spot consideration.
CJ Verdell – Oregon
Bijan Robinson – Texas
Brian Robinson Jr – Alabama
FADE
Breece Hall – There’s a good reason to fade the Senior RB who is a veteran and well established this early in the season in a home game. If they give Hall the ball 25 times today I would be shocked against a very weak opponent.
This is a very spread out WR slate and this is not the strongest position on the board but it does have my favorite play of the day in the WV-MD game. I normally like to find guys who are under 6k for two of my WR positions because the bonus over 100 yards and the full PPR is so easy to make those guys hit value vs QB/RB.
Dontay Demus Jr – Maryland – $7,100
Maryland is going to be this years version of Minnesota/Indiana the last two seasons in the Big 10, that is my bold call. Two years ago we rode the Gophers offense with their big WR every week and last year it was Indiana who balled out every week. Now it’s Marylands turn, and yes I know Ohio State was the king of the castle, this is obviously in the “Non Ohio State” tier that I am referencing in the Big 10.
Skyy Moore – WMU – $5,900
Moore checks many of the boxes that I look for in a second WR. He is sub 6k, he is the #1 WR who gets over 20% of the targets (or should) and he is in a game which has high scoring potential in it as well. I honestly think the under is the better play in this game because Michigan isn’t going to be fast paced and neither is WMU that much but Moore is a very talented receiver who should be on our radar.
Malik Heath – $4,000 / Jamire Calvin – Miss St – $4,800
Mississippi State is going to throw the ball a ton once again this season, it’s just what Mike Leach does, so finding the right WR in this offense is always a gamble worth taking. Even more so when facing a defense that has weak coverage at CB and should allow a high completion % to passing games like this. I would expect things to be spread around so taking a shot on either one of these good value plays is fine.
Sam James – WVU – $3,900
When things are ugly for WVU they will need to air it out and Sam James seemingly is still attending classes in Morgantown and tempting me to roster him when he is a cheap value play like this. He has moved inside and in a game I am targetting that is pure gold for having a big PPR game. He’ll be in my WVU-MD gamestack core.
Stud who likely gets overlooked
Alec Pierce – Cincinnati – $7,200
The Bearcats offense gets to run through Desmond Ridder more this season but his $9200 price in a potential blowout has me limited on looking at him. Instead consider his top big play WR threat in Alec Pierce who missed a good amount of time in 2020 due to a foot injury but should be fully healthy to start things off and is a friendly target for Ridder. In 2020 limited action he averaged over 18 yards per catch and had a 45-yard strike in the AAC championship game and then the opening TD in their Bowl Game. He is going to be a star all season for this offense assuming he can stay healthy.
Chalk Report
The chalk in CFB DFS typically does decent which drives up the place line with higher scores, but it doesn’t mean that the chalk winds up being the HIGHEST scoring plays. Not sure if what I am explaining makes sense but lets take Deuce Vaughn today for example. He is going to be highly owned at RB and is someone I will be playing, but when he has a flame next to his name don’t take that as he was the top RB on the board — it just means he didn’t flop. The key in CFB is avoiding flops and finding the sneaky explosive slate breaker guys, who if DK had a cooler app would show like 4 flaming emoji’s and rockets and fireworks next to their name to show how well they did. Here’s the highest projected chalk plays.
Players in RED are 100% fades
- QB: Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young
- RB: Bijan Robinson, Deuce Vaughn, Breece Hall
- WR: Jordan Whittington, Jamire Calvin … There honestly isnt a heavy heavy chalk WR today. Do not fear here.
BETS
Maryland +2.5, I like ML here as well but take the points
Kansas State -3
Iowa -4
Alabama/Miami UNDER 61.5
Louisiana/Texas OVER 58
Marshall/Navy UNDER 47
Where to allocate Salary?
Not at WR that is for sure. The WR2 and WR3 positions today are where I would want to keep players under $6k if possible.
The Tailgate Core (Core for DraftKings Lineups)
- QB: Taulia
- RB: Deuce Vaughn
- WR: Dontay Demus JR
The Gladiator Play (Guy who can break slate)
Alec Pierce – Cincinnati
Tilt/Tilt Slate Plays (that would be the 7pm slate btw)
Follow the model’s here at DailyAmbush.com for the late slate plays. If I have a thought I’ll throw it in DISCORD for today.