Overview

It’s the last race before we get to the playoffs and things are getting tense for some drivers in the Xfinity series. Coming off of back-to-back wins, Noah Gragson is on the pole and getting hot at the right time after going winless all year up until taking down Darlington then Richmond last week. On Friday night the drivers will take on the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” of Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennesee. Bristol is a .533-mile high-banked oval that is one of the favorite tracks for fans and drivers alike. The drivers will go 300 laps, 159.9 miles pushing and sliding on one of the more physically grueling tracks around. With so many dominator points available with 300 laps on the docket, it’s impossible not to roster two potential dominators per lineup if not three. Track position is imperative here as more often than not over the years the drivers in starting in the front two rows have led the majority of the laps throughout the race. The driving will be aggressive on Friday under the lights as the Xfinity series drivers ramp up for the playoffs.

Most comparable tracks: Dover

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Dominators

These are the drivers that we can typically expect to, you guessed it, dominate the race. When we think dominator we are looking for guys that will be in a position to lead a hefty amount of laps as well as be able to turn over fastest laps.

Justin Allgaier ($10,800)

It’s almost a rule that when the Xfinity drivers hit a short track Allgaier is in the dominator discussion. Now, when it’s Bristol and Allgaier is starting on the front row he immediately becomes a top play. Also, he’s reasonably priced at $10,800 likely making him the highest owned dominator in the race. That doesn’t matter to me because he’s been dominant here in a Jr. Motorsports car even in instances which he doesn’t finish well either because of bad luck or wrecking out.

Here is a breakdown of Allgaier’s last seven races at Bristol:

Race	Starting Position	Laps Led	Finishing Position
8/18/17	4th	75	5th
4/14/18	2nd	47	2nd
8/17/18	10th	0	3rd
4/16/19	6th	138	30th (crashed on lap 226)
8/16/19	3rd	131	8th
6/1/20	10th	156	18
9/18/20	1st	126	5th

Clearly, we see that Allgaier hasn’t won any of these races however he’s dominated way more often than not leading 75 or more laps in five of the seven races and at least 126 in each of his last four.

Ty Gibbs ($11,500)

The ultra-talented Gibbs get his first shot at Bristol in an Xfinity car and there are a couple of factors that are worrisome. First, he may be incredibly talented in a great car but the lack of experience at Bristol does give me some pause. Also, with that pause, I look at his price tag as the most expensive driver on the slate but he does start on the second row in third. Gibbs led 67 laps last week at Richmond and finished fifth earlier this season at Dover after starting 15th. Talent could reign supreme here and we could see Gibbs get out in front early and dominate. It’s a risky proposition but one that I’m going to take in some lineups.

Noah Gragson ($10,200)

Starting on the pole is Allgaier’s Jr. Motorsports teammate Noah Gragson who comes in with all of the momentum after winning each of his last two races. Gragson won the June race here last season after leading 55 laps and starting ninth. He’s one of, if not the most aggressive driver in the series who’s not afraid of contact which is appropriate considering that when you have these machines whipping around this short track there’s bound to be some pushing and shoving.

Also consider:

Daniel Hemric ($9,200), Starting 4th

Harrison Burton ($9,600), Starting 6th

Place Differential Targets

This is where the focus should be and where the money is going to be made. Finding the drivers with place differential that can stay out of trouble and see this race to the end is paramount.

Sam Mayer ($9,900)

Mayer, the winner of the truck race last year will start 22nd in the Jr. Motorsports number 8 car on Friday. Mayer is already locked into a JRM ride for next season as he continues to get his feet wet at the Xfinity level. The 8 car has been solid for JRM this season mostly piloted by Josh Berry who won with the car at Martinsville, another short track, and finished second at both Darlington and Dover, the latter being the most comparable track to Dover as far as the style of banking in the corners. Mayer has top-five upside and I’d be surprised to see him finish outside of the top 10 at a track he’s had success at.

Brandon Jones ($9,400)

Yet another Joe Gibbs car, Jones rolls off 16th at Bristol in an all-time terrifying scenario. Rostering Jones is a gamble in these types of races because of his propensity to get over-aggressive and wreck out early. However, Jones has fared well of late at Bristol finishing 14th or better in four of his last six races there with three top 8’s over that span.

Landon Cassill ($7,700)

Cassill has a ton of experience behind the wheel and he more often than not keeps the car clean. Often getting an unfair shake because of lack of funding, Cassil finds himself often looking for rides more often than he’s looking for green flags. In any event, Cassil is in the 4 car for this race starting 35th. Dating back to 2008, Cassill has run Bristol at the Xfinity level seven times posting an average finish of 18th including a 10th place finish in the August 2019 race here. He should be one of the more popular place differential targets.

Brett Moffitt ($8,500)

Moffitt missed last weeked race but he’ll be back in the number 02 Our Motorsports car on Friday night. Moffitt has three top 10 finishes in this car this season and has had a ton of success at Bristol in the trucks series over the years. Starting 20th there are some solid place differential points to chase. I wish he was a little cheaper but we’ll have to live with $8,500.

B.J. McLeod ($7,200)

McLeod has driven the 15 car three times at Bristol since 2019 and has an average finish of 21st. Keep in mind that there is not a ton of upside here but starting 37th, if McLeod can finish 25th we’ll take it as a floor play.

Value Place Differential Plays:

Joe Graf, Jr. ($5,300), Starting 36th

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300), Starting 23rd

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,400), Starting 29th

Speedy Notes

Driver(s) I have most exposure to: Justin Algaier

Driver I’m fading that worries me: Austin Cindric

Driver(s) I have zero interest in: Ty Dillon

GOOD LUCK!!