Overview
Two races to go before the Xfinity Series playoffs begin and on Saturday afternoon the drivers will take on the short track of Richmond Raceway in Henrico County, Virginia. Richmond is a .75-mile flat asphalt short track and it’s very unique with a “D” shape making it a short track that tends to race as a superspeedway in some instances. In this race the drivers will go 250 laps totaling 187.5 miles so dominator points will be a more significant factor here. The last time the Xfinity Series was here we had two drivers lead a substantial amount of laps. Ross Chastain led 58 and the eventual race winner Justin Allgaier led 135. The race prior (literally one day before) we had four drivers lead 39 or more laps with Allgaier leading the most (78) and emerging victorious in that trip as well. Richmond is an aggressive, exciting track and as we inch closer to the playoffs that’s exactly what I expect this race to be.
Most comparable tracks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
Dominators
These are the drivers that we can typically expect to, you guessed it, dominate the race. When we think dominator we are looking for guys that will be in a position to lead a hefty amount of laps as well as be able to turn over fastest laps.
Austin Cindric ($10,300)
The pricing on Cindric is egregious in my opinion. At the Xfinity level, he’s been incredibly consistent with an average finish of sixth over six races. In the first race here last year he was able to lead 64 laps but ironically enough on the pole he only led eight passes. Starting on the pole on Saturday, I like his chances to lead a good chunk of laps and finish in the top five.
Justin Allgaier ($9,700)
I’ll go on the record saying that I’m not a “Justin Allgaier guy” but there is no denying the success he’s had at Richmond and on short tracks in general. In this series at Richmond, he has 10 top 10’s, seven top five’s, and two wins (both last season). With the two wins in the two races prior to those, he had finishes of third and fourth. In the third-place finish, he led 86 laps and he’s, in fact, led at least 78 laps in three of his last four Richmond races. He’ll roll off fifth on Saturday.
Noah Gragson ($8,700)
Gragson will start third in a fast car on Saturday as he rides in on the momentum of a win last week at Darlington. Gragson led 16 laps in the second Richmond race last year and has fared well at both Richmond and Phoenix over his Xfinity career. With nothing to lose and his first win of the season under his belt Gragson could be dangerous as one of the more aggressive drivers in the series.
Also consider:
Daniel Hemric ($10,000) – Starting 12th
Justin Haley ($8,100) – Starting 4th
Place Differential Targets
This is where the focus should be and where the money is going to be made. Finding the drivers with place differential that can stay out of trouble and see this race to the end is paramount.
Ty Gibbs ($11,200)
Starting 15th, Gibbs is in that “no man’s land” area we typically see where there’s not a ton of place differential and they won’t quite have enough time to get to the front and potentially dominate. That narrative can go out the window with this race. Combine Gibbs’ talent, the equipment he’s using, and the length of this race and there’s no reason to think that he can’t race up to the front. The only factors separating Gibbs from being a slam-dunk play are his salary (third-highest) and the lack of experience he has with the track. If Gibbs was price around where Cindric is I’d be all over it in GPP’s.
Sam Mayer ($8,500)
It’s already been announced that Mayer will drive full-time in the Xfinity Series for Jr. Motorsports next season but until then he’ll bound back and forth from JRM and others for seat time. On Saturday he’ll drive the 99 car for B.J. McLeod and start way back at 38th. While the car might have subpar equipment there’s a ton of P.D. upside for a talented driver such as Mayer at a reasonable price.
John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700)
JHN is making a rare appearance this season out of a truck racing just his second Xfinity race of the season. In three career Xfinity races at Richmond, JHN has an average finish of 11th and although he’s not in the best equipment driving the Sam Hunt Racing 26 car starting back at 27th there’s still room for place differential points.
Landon Cassill ($7,800)
Cassill continues to be a solid performer considering the chances and rides he gets. While he doesn’t bring a ton of sponsorship/funding, something that has unfairly bumped him out of rides in the past, he seems to run solid races whenever he has the opportunity and keeps the car clean. Cassill has three DNF’s this season, two of which were caused by crashes and the other an engine failure. With those three blunders, Cassil still has an average finish of 21st with seven top-17 finishes. He’ll start 31st on Saturday.
J.J. Yeley ($7,400)
We can look at Yeley and find a lot of comparisons between him and Cassill. Yeley might be a little older at this stage of his career but he’s still making the most of his chances now driving for Rick Ware Racing. This will be Yeley’s 10th Xfinity race this season with one of those coming at Phoenix, a race in which he started 33rd and finished 13th. Yeley will start 29th.
Value Place Differential Plays:
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400), Starting 24th
Brandon Brown ($6,900), Starting 17th
Speedy Notes
Driver(s) I have most exposure to: Austin Cindric
Driver I’m fading that worries me: Justin Haley
Driver(s) I have zero interest in: Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
GOOD LUCK!!