I started writing up my article earlier this week than I have all season this year, but this is back to how I normally did it where I started breaking down things on Wednesday rather than waiting until Friday to ultimately finalize the article. So in a way I am tempting fate and we’re going to get some massive COVID or injury news late on Friday night which throws everything into a bind or we’ll just win $100,000 this week and everyone will yell at me if I don’t do things the same way again the rest of the season.
There is no major information that you need to be aware of but there is a wild Jets-Falcons game over in London at 9:30 am on Sunday morning, then 8 games early at 1PM and then four games late at 4PM.
- Julio Jones is OUT again for the Titans but it looks like AJ Brown is going to be a go… I am not immediately looking to rush to roster a guy coming off a hamstring injury in DFS but Brown should only help the Titans offense out.
- Dalvin Cook is questionable as you likely know. If he plays, we fade. If he sits I am still fading Mattison, but do not hate that play this week. I don’t want to deal with the two splitting carries however.
- Saints and Washington could have some early showers which if they linger would create a sloppy field but likely isn’t much to be concerned with.
Kyler Murray (DK: 8000, FD: 8500) … Kyler has faced San Francisco four times with the last three resulting in rushing totals of 67, 91 and 75 yards. He generally has been a cheat code at scoring via the ground in home games. San Francisco is neither a terrible or a fantastic match-up, which puts them square in the middle and to me is going to result in the Cardinals trusting their star Quarterback to get things done in the red zone. San Francisco has given up modest scores to Hurts (21), Rodgers (19), and Wilson (22) but Kyler is higher than all three of those generally and should result in a 25 point game on what appears to be a bleak Quarterback slate. Kyler is a better play for his price on FanDuel this week.
Dakota Prescott (DK: 6900, FD: 8100) … The only time Dak has not been a top QB this year as the last time I was on him. But we’re getting a much less contrarian spot at home against the NY Giants this week. The G-Men cannot stop the passing game for most teams from keeping the chains moving and I have a strong correlation build this week that makes Dak the top QB-WR combination on the board with CeeDee Lamb. Dak is a strong buy at $6900 on DraftKings.
Trevor Lawrence (DK: 5800, FD: 6900) … My model has guys like Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston and Jacoby Brissett ranking high as of the early part of this week – but while each of them have decent matchups I will take the value and semi-breakout spot that we are getting with Lawrence. He is coming off an extended rest which is like a rookie QB getting his first bye week, he has a coach who has been grinding things out during the bye to get his team their first big score of the season and he’s got two dynamic WR in Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault that can take apart one of the worst secondaries in the league right now. You won’t find much better value at QB this week in my mind.
Also Love: Joe Burrow (Bengals) — See Below
Projected QB Chalk – Prescott, Jones, Murray, Lance
Another week where QB chalk doesn’t matter, which is the norm because YOU CAN ONLY ROSTER ONE GUY SO WHY DO YOU NEED A LISTING OF EIGHT QUARTERBACKS TO PLAY! Sorry for screaming.
Alvin Kamara (DK: $8600, FD: $8600) … With the Saints losing a game they had last week to the NY Giants and their BYE week coming up, this sets up as the prime scenario for Alvin Kamara to be featured quite often as the player they need to get them a road victory. A lot of noise was going around the fantasy community earlier this week about how Kamara had 0 targets for the first time in his career and logged a career high in carries. Well, that’s true yes, but he had targets which were hauled in as backwards passes on swing passes so he technically did have catches and the injury early to Tony Jones Jr meant that a game plan which was more run heavy than some of us thought (ahem, Winston played well just didnt have the volume) meant that Kamara had to log more rushing attempts. Washington is very banged up all around but their LB and secondary is exceptionally thin and I refuse to believe that the Saints will just come out and ignore Kamara in the passing game this week.
Damien Harris (DK: $5500, FD: $6500) … On paper this is a dumpster fire of a game but how do you not like New England to roll here in Houston? New England just faced arguably the two best rush defenses in the entire league in the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The ghost of Jim Brown wouldn’t have produced offensively in those spots, but now we’re getting another week where the RB depth chart in New England features Harris, Brandon Bolden, JJ Taylor and Pardon Me I fumbled again Stevenson.
You think Mac Jones is going to throw for 300 yards against Houston? pfft. No shot off that emotional game last week. This is turn around and hand the ball off to your second year back facing a rushing defense that has given up 4.5 YPC and given how often teams are controlling the ball against them, those carries are adding up big time each week. New England is sleepless, they’ll find your weakness, and it’s running it right upside your gut, now Testify.
Derrick Henry (DK: $9000, FD: $10400) … D-Henry on the road and D-Henry vs AFC South. We’ve got a scenario where Henry most certainly is someone I would expect to score a rushing touchdown, get 90 to 110 yards and have a great chance at a second TD. Had Dalvin Cook been cleared as a full go he would have been the likely chalk, but now it’s entirely back on the D-Henry train given his volume.
Mid Range and Value Backs
Kenneth Gainwell (DK: $4900, FD: $5700)
This is the changing of the guard in Philadelphia. Gainwell was equal to Sanders a week ago and should be an integral part of the Eagles game plan this week — which is gonna have to be win on the ground.
Trey Sermon (DK: $5000, FD: $5800)
Figures to get good volume again. Just need the TD variance to finally swing his way and with Trey Lance likely starting that TD variance takes a hit. He’s a third FLEX option only for me.
Projected RB Chalk – Henry, Cook/Mattison, Damien Williams, Barkley, Najee Harris
Great position to make a pivot play. Kamara is getting overlooked although he won’t be 3% owned he will be lower owned as everyone just looks at what happened last week and assumes that it’s gonna happen again this week. I mean, did you eat the same thing today that you ate yesterday? Actually, don’t answer that…
This is the position I really dove into first for Week 5 because it stood out to me as being one of the better positions on the slate once again. The theme of WR dominating 2021 should continue again this week.
CeeDee Lamb (DK: $6200, FD: $6900) … A big thank you to Amari Cooper for not going on “the list” last week after he exited early with an injury only to come back in and haul in a touchdown to save his day. But we are done with Mr Cooper now that the Giants are coming to town and we want all the CeeDee Lamb we can get. For whatever reason the Saints continue to not attack over the middle of the field in their passing game (likely because they have nobody running those routes) but the Cowboys will not be limited the same category this week. The Giants have consistently been letting Quarterbacks complete at a very high rate against them and I have a ton of confidence in Dak Prescott finding Lamb multiple times this week after he has seen just 8 targets combined in their last two games. This is a get CeeDee right spot.
Marvin Jones (DK: $5700, FD: $6600) … Jones had seen 9-11-8 targets through the first three weeks but dropped down to just 3 in their Thursday Night week four game against the Bengals. This was mostly attributed to Laviska Shenault seeing a bump in targets based on attacking the Bengals secondary cornerbacks (more on this later). Back at home against a Titans defense which offers a favorable matchup giving up 266 yards per game through the air and a 62% completion percentage we should see Jones back into that 7 catch for 75 yards category and a good chance for a touchdown here.
Tyler Boyd (DK: $5300, FD: $6300) … We dont want yardage guys against the Packers right now in the passing game. In my view we are better off taking the volume of receptions and on the Bengals side that is Tyler Boyd who with Higgins out has seen a re-jump in his targets. Green Bay is banged up defensively with Jaire Alexander nursing an injured shoulder and Kevin Smith was questionable last week and is still a little banged up for this game. The Bengals should be able to move through the air and Burrow has a little welcome to the top tier moment if he can out duel Rodgers here. Look for Boyd to have another high target/catch game.
Davante Adams (DK: $8200, FD: $8200) … It is always nice when a player is the same price on both sites and so we can throw out “price” when it comes to analysis on Adams because you might feel sick about paying up that much when there’s so many WR options — but then you aren’t having to necessarily pay for a Kelce at TE this week, so what’s wrong with looking at a guy getting double digit targets, including all the red zone looks, against a team who basically when teams want to pass they pass, when teams want to run, they run. You want to throw a 1 yard touchdown twice to Adams? We can do that too. He’ll get you 2x for sure. He could get you 4x too.
Darnell Mooney (DK: $4700, FD: $5600) … Without David Montgomery the Bears are going to have to get creative to find ways to extend drives. Now I am not going to assume that they do some logical thing here but in a world where they did do the logical thing that would involve scrapping trying to just methodically march down the field and take more big play shots vertically because if you can hit a couple of those then maybe you can find a way to put up 20 on the Raiders suddenly back to earth not-very-good defense. Mooney has to be that guy, his speed in this Vegas track should be on display and we saw when Fields did play he seems to have the arm to hit him deep. For sub 5k this week, he’s a nice lower end value play.
Low end Value WR
Allen Lazard (DK: $3700, FD: $5100) … The Bengals are getting carved up on the outside this year. Without a consistent pass rush and without good coverage on the backend this defense has given up 69% completion rates which is not ideal when facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. We know that Davante Adams is the main dog in this offense and it’s hard not seeing him hit good value but do not overlook Lazard for a couple big shots down the field as well this week.
Curtis Samuel (DK: $3000) … Min price for a guy who has given the Saints fits from his old NFC South days. With Washington having a ton of injuries, we basically will take anyone on this offense who is getting any touches on DK for min price and Samuel should get plenty + a touchdown.
Projected WR Chalk – Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin
Jakobi Meyers – no. Just no. RB and TE for the Patriots and if you want to go with a Patriots WR then by all means, have fun with that boat that has no paddles in it on the creek named Shits… The rest are all true #1 or close to it, the one I caution with is McLaurin because the Saints have brought his name up about 5 times in press conferences this week and they’re not going to let the Washington only WR beat them all game long when they are healthy in the secondary.
Mike Gesicki (DK: $4200, FD: $5600) … I expect Miami to be a sneaky competitive team this week against Tampa. The Bucs obviously coming off the huge emotional game up in New England for Brady and Miami off a series of ugly games is needing a right the ship kind of spot in Tampa. The Bucs continue to have a hard time covering TE with their line backers, who are aggressively used in blitzing and to pick up RB out of the backfield. We should see Brisset continue to try and attack underneath with no vertical arm and that will open up Gesicki to have likely his best game of the season this week. He’s gone for 18.6 and 16.7 the last two weeks with Jacoby under center and easily could hit a 20 point mark this week.
Jonnu Smith (DK: $3300, FD: $4900) … New England is going to remain powered through their two TE on offense and facing a Houston team which has been below avg against TE for years is a good spot to take some value shots. There’s no sense in paying up for TE this week in my mind and even though this game looks f-u-g-l-y on paper there’s a lot to like about Jonnu’s 3300 cheap price tag on DK. He’s still seeing the red zone usage and can easily hit 3 or 4x this week with another TD.
TE Darts
A lot of other TE recommendations this week will outline 4 or 5 more Tight Ends, but your main or up to three lineup build recommendations from me are Gesicki and Jonnu. For those who like to have a larger TE pool these are the guys I would take longshots on to hope that one of them falls into a second touchdown.
- Juwan Johnson (NO) … Expect 3 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown
- Cameron Brate (TB) … With Gronk out Brate seems to be Brady’s go too TE.
- Austin Hooper (CLE) … The Chargers defense is very good but something smells like a Browns break out game is coming.
- Evan Engram (NYG) … Always does well in Big D, limited targets to compete with due to guys being out.
Projected TE Chalk – Ricky Seals-Jones, Jared Cook and okay I am done looking at TE chalk because I am just laughing….
Denver Broncos (DK: $4200, FD: $4400) … You put this elite level defense on the field against the walking statue that is Ben Roethlisberger and I don’t see how they aren’t walking away with 5 sacks this weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $3300, FD: $4000) … Another popular play should be the Steelers at home against likely Drew Lock. Good value pivot on DK off the Broncos while staying in what should be a low scoring game with these offenses.
Minnesota Vikings (DK: $3000, FD: $3900) … As I said three weeks ago, this defense is viable when at home against a bad offense. They have that this week in Jared Goff and the Chip-n-Dale receivers that he comes into Minnesota with. Seriously, the names on this WR core is like the names of the cast of a bad Amatuer night at a Strip Club for Women. Vikings should be a safe middle of the road play with some turnover upside.
Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $2200) … A DK only value play this week.
Projected DEF Chalk – Washington on DK for only 2300 (dont hate it tbh, they will get 3 sacks). Philly is also dirt cheap at 2200 and New England is facing Houston.
Fear not, the title of the article remains, but lets move the AMBUSH section at the end after providing the glimpse of what our player pool is. These are my favorite plays/themes/thoughts for the upcoming week. Some folks call this a CORE or a LOCK or whatever you want to give it a special label for, these are … The the plays to Ambush The Competition with this week.
Ambush Play #1 … Turn it up
I hope Neil Young will remember, a southern man dont need his kind anyhow. I can assure you that this was not by design but given how dominant Alabama Running Backs have been of late it should come no surprise that we have a week where I am on just about every star former Alabama Running Back.
Yes, Alvin Kamara was technically an Alabama Running Back so we are going with it and holy hell that is scary to think about. An honorable mention to Mark Ingram but this week belongs to Kamara, Henry, D. Harris and N. Harris as the four running backs that we’re going to trust and expect to top 20 fantasy points.
- Kamara catches 6 passes, 2 touchdowns and has 150 all purpose yards.
- Derrick Henry has a 62 yard touchdown run in the first Quarter but only finishes with 125 rushing yards
- Najee Harris has 18.7 DK fantasy points
- Damien Harris scores twice, rushes for 130 yards and blows the piss out of Alexander Mattison chalk.
Ambush Play #2 … Stack of the Week
Last week Joe Burrow had a Thursday Night game and it was against the lowly Jaguars, but none the less it was a game where the Bengals had to scratch and claw their way (bad pun, I know) to a narrow 3 point win on Thursday Night Football. I have long said that Quarterbacks make their big jump in their second season as a starter. Well, something beyond that is when they pop their cherry with a Thursday night win. Winning as a Quarterback in the NFL does wonders for the players confidence and someone with the skill set, moxy and not to mention — weapons — like Burrow has that only means one thing.
It’s time for Neo Burrow to go break the fucking Matrix and drop a can of whoop ass on the Packers and their banged up secondary. Burrow has three weapons that are going to give Green Bay hell and the fact that Joe Mixon is likely out only furthers the desire to say screw it, give us the need for speed here and go full Top Gun on the Packers ass. Yes, I just totally crossed the Matrix over to Top Gun and now will come back full circle with a Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure reference as Burrow and his triplets are just going to have the Packers secondary spinning all game long.
This is our top game stack of the week. Beating out other sexy ones like Niners-Cardinals, Giants-Cowboys (LOL at stacking Giants/Cowboys) and others. Making tough calls in NFL DFS is what wins people money and fading Davante Adams is not something I am here to recommend but more so I am recommending that you find the value in this Packers-Bengals game and that involves Robert Tonyan and Allan Lazard for the Green Bay Packers. Adams for sure makes sense but so too are the secondary WR weapons and Rodgers desire to involve Tonyan as well. Look for Green Bay to have tons of offensive success this week and when that happens we should have a higher chance of getting the secondary guys involved over Jones and Adams.
But it is the Bengals side which I think we can go Heavy on this week, and by Heavy I mean Burrow-Boyd and either Chase or Higgins. Obviously, lets just cut right to it and say yes, Chase is the play with Boyd (who I dont think is going to suddenly go back to nothing with Higgins back in the lineup).
Then on the Green Bay side we have options beyond Adams to trust them for allowing higher priced non stack players in your lineup. Burrow throws for 4 TD as the Bengals push the Packers in a thriller, 34-31…
Ambush Play #3 … I see Darnell Mooney Scoring
Dont play the Allen Robinson targets, it’s bound to waste your money, there’s a Mooney scoring on the right side of your screen. Without the services of David Montgomery as I mentioned above it should open up the desire for the Bears to air it out a little bit more and against a favorable passing defense and in a stadium which has shown to be a fast track that means more shots to Darnell Mooney. Darnell Mooney anytime touchdown and as a good mid range value play on DraftKings this week.
Ambush Play #4 … Feed the Hungry
We don’t need to look back far into history to find a reminder of where we should be going in Week 5. Just on Thursday night we saw that the squeaky wheel Robert Woods was oiled up, fed, whatever you want to use to describe the volume that Woods got on Thursday night which should serve as a strong reminder as to just how silly it is to take what you have been seeing in a short period of time and assume that players are no longer going to be involved. Such is the case for CeeDee Lamb this week as Amari Cooper has been the play the last couple of weeks but now Lamb is going to remind everyone why he was the WR who saw his stock rising all summer long in this offense. Lamb has a big game and the Cowboys put aside the Giants in a lower scoring game than people expect — but one in which Lamb is not able to be slowed down.
Ambush Play #5 … Gesicki and the Dolphins pull off the Upset
Lock in Mike Gesicki as your top TE this week on a week where TE looks bleak.
Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. Alvin Kamara?
Usually this is a write up spot served for Quarterbacks, and Joe Burrow kind of fit this mold but it’s Kamara who is grossly being forgotten about. Yeah yeah, so he didn’t have an official target last week. That’s nice, he’ll have five in the first half this week. New Orleans isn’t walking out of FedEx Dump without Kamara touching the ball a ton.
Favorite Bets?
Lions +10.5
Bengals +3
Dolphins ML
Patriots -8.5
What is the longshot milli-maker stack of the week?
Trevor Lawrence – Marvin Jones – Laviska Shenault – Derrick Henry
1PM ONLY Build?
Bengals and Packers Stack
4PM ONLY Build?
Kyler – Hopkins – Aiyuk (SF/Arizona) along with Mooney/Jacobs (Bears/Raiders)