Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh is a SNEAKY elite offense which has a lot of what the Florida Gators had last year in that they’ve got multiple weapons on the outside and a QB who is good enough at the college level to get his skilled players the ball in big spots. You can say that the Hokies are good against the pass — which they are — but they really haven’t faced a great passing game like this since week 1 vs UNC and they have still given up 2 TD per game in each of the last three.
- Kenny Pickett, Taysir Mack & Jordan Addison
Meanwhile for the Hokies, WR Tre Turner is seeing just under 30% target share and is a measly $5,000 on DraftKings this weekend for some reason. Turner along with Tayvion Robinson will give enough volume here for QB Braxon Burmeister ($6300) to be a good value QB play today.
- Braxon Burmeister, Tre Turner & Tavion Robinson
Desmond Ridder
This is going to be very simple. Ridder is a stat padder who can light it up every single week because of his rushing ability. Cincy is at home against a bad rush defense and bad defense overall in UCF. Ridder didn’t dominate last week, so he’s going to fix that this week. This is a 5 TD smash spot that you just take and move on.
Kenny Pickett & Braxon Burmeister
The hardest decision I will have today is Ridder or gamestack these guys. I wont have Sam Howell on my main lineup even though that connection is a solid one today but its gonna require you to get a little crazy with your value at RB and thats not the main lineup build. This game stack though could be and I see a good 24 & 22 type outing from these two to give you a nice balanced build.
Just note that Ridder is going off though.
Best Value: Jack Tuttle (Indiana)
Isaiah Spiller
Spiller is one of the best DFS backs in the country and he’ll get a boost in rushing advantage with Mizzou being horrible (5.76 ypc) defensively against the run and giving up 60% of touchdowns on the ground. If ever there was a game when Texas A&M had to be smart, get in and get out without having a trap let down this is it. Give him the ball 20 times damnit.
Jaylen Warren
On the flip side of Texas A&M having a let down after a big win and just riding their back, we have the Longhorns defense which has to be reeling still from their choke job last week. So fire up some Oklahoma State ground exposure and if you aren’t using Spencer Sanders then you gotta like Jaylen Warren.
9am Update — Ty Chandler
I forgot to come in here and get this update in, but its where I was thinking all along. The play in the Miami/UNC game is to not ride the high priced passing combination of Sam (Aaron Rodgers) Howell and Josh (Davante Adams) Downs. But rather the play here is the running game with Ty Chandler for much lower price than the other two and Miami’s defense is just going to lay down the entire game allowing Chandler to hit value better than the higher priced plays.
Kenneth Walker
The builds I find myself want to focus on in a main lineup is going to be balanced this week. Walker is about as consistent as they come since he gets over 20 carries per game at over 7 YPC and will be featured heavily against Indiana.
Abram Smith
I think Baylor is going to roll right over BYU. I have gotten to watch a good amount of BYU for whatever reason this year and they have gotten by in home games when they otherwise should not have. Their defense is not great and Baylor is going to do damage here. The question we have to decide is ride the ground game data where Abram Smith will get 10+ carries in a timeshare or ride WR Tyquan Thornton who is cheap as well at WR and seeing a boost in targets. Tough call but Baylor one offs are good today.
Ty Fryfogle – Indiana – $5,300
There’s a path where Fryfogle has a 10 catch, 120 yard 3 TD afternoon today and for his price it’s too tempting to not take him here. The path is that Michigan State is not a good defensive team and is playing higher scoring games which makes the game flow great, but it really boosts with Michael Penix being out at QB and Jack Tuttle coming in. That should lead to Indiana getting quick screens or outside passes to their WR which bumps up his volume and allows him to get into the open field to turn a 2 yard catch into a 27 yard touchdown right to left on your TV’s.
Tre Turner – VA Tech – $5,000
If you are in on the VT-Pitt game then you plug in Turner and if you are out then you probably should still plug in Turner. I see this being a good back and forth game and Turner is the top Hokie to trust.
Jordan Addison – Pittsburgh – $8,000 & Taysir Mack – $5,400
Addison is having a dominant season and not getting the national notoriety for it. Not only has he caught a tuddie in every single game, he has gone over 110 yards in each of the last three while on 6 catches in each of his last 4. He’s the big play and red zone threat for Pittsburgh and VT has nobody who can stay with him because DeAngelo Hall aint walking through those doors this weekend. Meanwhile Taysir Mack is a HUGE discount and another one of those balanced lineup type plays I am in love with today.
Treylon Burks – Arkansas – $6,600
Burks has to score, period. The passing volume just wont be there for him to have a huge yardage game but he should have his usual 6-7 targets for 70 yards or so. But at his rising price he’s going to HAVE to get into the box.
VALUE
Brian Thomas / Jaray Jenkins – LSU – $3300 …. LSU Star receiver Kayshon Boutte is out for the season, which means we get a ton of volume to spread around everywhere else.
DEEPEST POSITION
Running Back
VALUE POSITION
None specifically.
BETS
Baylor -5.5
VT / Pitt OVER 56
UNC -7.5
UCF / Cincy OVER 55.5
MSU / Indiana OVER 48.5
DFS LINEUP REMINDERS
College Football remains a sport you want to focus on a game stack where you can. The Super-Flex position allowing us to pair two Quarterbacks from the same game is often what folks refer to with a game stack but it can actually be done many different ways.
The simplest method that I find to consistently work however is to ensure that my secondary plays in a lineup are also correlated within the same game together. If you are new to College Football DFS and just trying to get your feet settled into a consistent approach then follow this template — which on a slate like today should wind up being the right template.
We will identify three games to our lineup as the core build.
- Game A – Pick 3 players from this game, this will be the premiere game with the QB that we want to lock in on. We will pair that QB with a pass catcher (ideally a WR on the full PPR site of DK) and then run it back on the other side. If you want that run it back to be the other QB then they go into the SFLEX obviously.
- Game B – Pick 2 Flex players, no QB in your second favorite game. Usually for me I find this to be two WR but having a RB stud (often times at home is good here) and then a WR from the other side plays out well.
- Game C – Find your favorite one off RB play and plug them in as RB1. If there is an obvious correlation with this play in the same game then put that player in the FLEX.
You should wind up with a template like this:
| QB | Game A |
| RB 1 | Game C |
| RB 2 | |
| WR 1 | Game A |
| WR 2 | Game B |
| WR 3 | Game B |
| FLEX | Game C |
| S-FLEX | Game A |
The salary for WR2 and WR3 are critical here. You can’t go to a game that has two 7k+ wide receivers and expect this build to work. Often times that’s going to be a 5700 and a 5100 player, but it also could dictate the WR 1 player you took from Game A and if that should be more of a value.
The bottom line here is that we’re focused on three games. We want those three games to have the best tempo and action in them and this lineup should have the most tournament upside. As you are moving along with this, if you find that there is an optimal player who is cheaper and fits better than one of the correlations — then that is where you make the pivot to help with salary.