Largest DFS slate of the season and pricing is very good this week on DraftKings. When I say largest slate I mean it as we have fourteen total games, with the last one kicking off at 4:00 PM EST. So basically just wipe away your Saturday if you’re planning on watching all the games while you sweat your DFS lineups.
Which to be honest, is not a bad thing to consider doing.
WEATHER
Miami at Pittsburgh– This is a really good game, aaaaaaaaaaaand of course we have rain in it. It looks like it isn’t terrible, but something to monitor…
Despite a huge slate of games there is not a group of gamestack eligible spots that stand out today. There are some teams in really good spots to which you can stack but overall nothing stands out above the rest as the singular spot to latch onto for a full run it back scenario. That said, with fourteen options there is a high probability that one of them will get there and so these are the games which I would focus your core exposure on.
TCU vs Kansas State (-3.5), Total = 58.5
- Both teams will do their damage through the ground which might present a scenario where the game is moving faster than you would like — however there’s gonna be lots of first downs through the ground game and so that will stop the clock enough for this one to finish around 31-27 as the final score.
- Kansas State of course runs through RB Deuce Vaughn and he is priced up finally at $9.4k, but given how much damage he does through the air I can confidently recommend Skylar Thompson who also will rush it some (3 TD on the season) and at $7,300 is in line for a nice mid range game today.
- The TCU side depends on the health of RB Zach Evans, but either way I love this spot for WR Quentin Johnston @ $7,000. His 25% target share should do very favorably considering KSt give sup 70% completion percentage on the season.
Miami vs Pittsburgh (-9.5), Total = 61
- Miami has allowed a ton of offensive production all season long and despite Pitt having quality talent in their secondary they have still been a team who gives up enough touchdowns through the air that you can consider options against them.
- The Pitt side is where we begin, Jordan Addison is another high talent WR who has the potential to blow up but is also nursing an injury and is a GTD. If he were to sit then we have massive value in my mind with Taysir Mack and Melquise Stovall. But if Addison is a go then he’s your primary Pitt option in this game.
- Miami should be in catch up mode late and we should see potential for one of Rambo, Harley, Smith or Mallory have a high target game. With Rambo drawing the Pitt primary coverage I would look at Mike Harley for $4,200.
Duke vs Wake Forest
- We have the late slate hammer as this is your 4pm game and there’s sure to be some exposure and goodies in this one. Wake Forest has the best WR on the slate in Jaquarri Roberson, and while he might feel like chasing to you just know that he’s in that mode of someone who is getting 20+ DK fantasy points every single week. So fading him in a good game like this isn’t something you should do hoping that he has some terrible floor game.
- Duke is going to need a huge game from RB Mateo Durant, and they should get it. Duke loves to run and teams do that extremely well against Wake Forest.
- Update — Jake Bobo for Duke will see 25% of their targets, and although we like the ground game normally for Duke, that’s a very good value today as well. In a late hammer game stack there’s a good mix to pair Bobo with Jaq Roberson instead of riding Durant.
It is very hard for me to pay $10,000 for Caleb Williams, but he should have a major bounce back game this week. While there are so many options on this slate and you might want to find a value Quarterback to lock in, I am more confident in taking the sure things today as QB1.
Desmond Ridder (Cincy)
And when we think of sure things, Desmond Ridder should be that for $8,300. The rushing upside has not been present with Ridder in 2021 and I do not expect that to start at Tulane — however he should have a fantastic day passing the ball to Alec Pierce against Tulane. Some concern here for me that Cincy comes out flat given that it’s an 11am road start but one player who should not be flat is Ridder and if their defense does give up some points to Tulane then he’ll have a 300 & 4 TD day.
Max Duggan (TCU)
Duggan meanwhile is not in that ‘consistent’ type mold of a Ridder, Hartman, Brown, Williams. But this is our mid range QB who draws a funnel scenario for him to have a good volume day passing the ball while offering some rushing upside inside the 20 for that 6 point rushing TD.
Kenny Pickett (Pitt)
If Addison is in only. Pickett is one of the better pro-style QB that is available and he should shred a Miami defense which is very close to just not showing up for games anymore.
Mataeo Durant (Duke)
He gets 23+ carries per game, rushes for over 5 yard per pop, is facing a defense which gives up 200 rushing yards per game and over 40% of their TD given up do come on the ground. So there’s literally no negative scenario for Durant unless you think Duke is down 40-0 at the end of the first quarter in a ‘rivalry’ type spot.
Abram Smith (Baylor)
I suspect we see ownership going to the more talented Bijan Robinson for Texas, but the home running back for Baylor is the play. At just 7.2k you are getting someone averaging more YPC and facing a much less tougher defense which has been blow out the stadium on the ground. Smith should see double digit carries and is my favorite play to have 100 yards & 2 TD by halftime.
Deuce Vaughn (Kansas St)
Nothing negative to say about Deuce Vaughn, who I think will come in lower owned than he should given his high price tag.
Will Shipley (Clemson)
This will be the highest owned player on the slate and he offers some salary relief at $5,700 and should see 90% of Clemson’s carries against a bad Florida State defense. Clemson has had a lost season so it’s very annoying to see them having the highest owned player and I honestly believe this turns into a Justyn Ross smash pivot this week at low ownership, but if you just want to take the chalk mid range RB as your Flex in a balanced build then Shipley is a good play
Contrarian play of the day
Kenneth Walker
The Wolverines/Spartans clash of the glove is something which I project to be one of the more entertaining games on the day. Both teams do one thing and that is run the damn ball. But Walker is the side which is getting overlooked at a sub 7k price tag as his Heisman stock vanished with a few lack-luster games. This is the time for Michigan State to ride him and keep the Michigan ground attack off the field on the sidelines.
Flex Values
Stephen Carr – Indiana
Justice Ellison – Wake Forest
Israel Aranikanda – Pittsburgh (*Also Questionable*)
Jaq Roberson (Wake Forest)
One thing that I look for in WR with College is the threat of someone else taking over. Roberson has no threat of anyone else either taking his target share or a stud running back taking away the volume. He will get his 20 and you will be fine playing him.
Jordan Addison (Pittsburgh) … if he sits then Taysir Mack who should be very popular at his price for good reason.
The next thing I search out for is someone who has the talent and ability to break the slate – like Roberson did last week. In this scenario Addison with his 20% target share, NFL frame and matchup against the Hurricanes has that potential. He comes in with a questionable tag and so we have to monitor before game time if he is going to play.
Alec Pierce (Cincy)
There is ZERO reason to play Ridder without Pierce this week. They are like white on rice in this match-up and Pierce has strong 70 yard touchdown vibes. For his price and big play ability, Pierce is one of my favorite plays overall this weekend.
Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Johnston should see a bump in receptions and that’s going to put him easily into the top tier this weekend. The Kansas State defense gives up 70% completion rate but one thing that worries me will be Duggan keeping it for a rushing touchdown. So if you roll Johnston I would pair him with Duggan and hope at worst case you got 6 points for a Duggan touchdown.
Ty Fryfogle (Indiana)
A recent staple in the article and someone who we have been waiting for his easy game to go off. That easy game is coming today vs Maryland. Of all the sub 6k options on this slate, Fryfogle should produce the best results.
This is a solid WR slate, but pricing is tough on some guys, here are other players who I think should play well:
Xavier Hutchinson (Iowa St), Marvin Mims (Oklahoma), Mike Harley (Miami)
Value Punts (See Below on how to use these)
Josh Whyle (Cincy)
Duece Watts (Tulane)
Charlie Kolar (ISU)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (UMD)
How to build lineups this week
This is going to be the most important part of my article this week. In my mind you have three methods to approaching a lineup build this week.
- You can go the game stack route. I will not be doing that as my priority, but that’s the quick and dirty way and so lets get that out of the way.
- Go balanced build, which is going to require fading some of the higher priced players on this slate and is a logical build but staying down the middle.
- And then Door #3 which I think is the right method this week. You need to punt WR3 and you need to punt the FLEX. When I say punt, that means cheap WR because we do not punt RB in college football on a big slate like this and you get more value in a 3k-4k WR who can catch 3 balls for 52 yards and a touchdown than you do a 4200 RB who gets 7 carries for 47 yards. It’s just that simple.
CORE A (The Ambush Main Core):
- QB – Desmond Ridder (Cincy)
- RB – Abram Smith (Baylor)
- RB – Mateo Durant (Duke) or Jake Bobo. One of these MUST be in your lineup today
- WR – Quentin Johnston (TCU)
CORE B (Balanced):
- QB – Desmond Ridder (Cincy)
- RB – Abram Smith (Baylor)
- WR – Ty Fryfogle (Indiana)
- WR – Alec Pierce (Cincy)
CORE C (Gamestack):
- TCU … Duggan, Johnston, Vaughn (KanSt)
- Cincinnati … Ridder, Pierce, Whyle, Watts (Tulane)
FAVORITE BETS
West Virginia +7.5
Colorado/Oregon UNDER 49
Pittsburgh -9.5 … If Addison plays
TCU/Kansas State — Monitor this for an in game over. If you get a total at halftime which is below 55 then jump on it (assuming nobody important has a massive injury)