Now we are onto the divisional round, action packed five game series and tomorrow is just looming with the full four game slate that I have been waiting for all season long. The two American League series will get going today and I believe that the White Sox and Rays are going to wind up winning their series but if anyone ruins the party it will be Houston.
WHITE SOX vs ASTROS
Look for the White Sox to trust their starting pitching to give them 6 innings each start so that they can get to the best bullpen in the playoffs. Chicago throws nothing but gas out of the pen and if they can get to the 7th inning with a lead they should be able to hang on throughout the playoffs.
In the seven regular season meetings between these teams Houston won 5 of the seven games with the White Sox offense only scoring more than 3 runs twice (both wins). That’s the magic number here this series too, if Chicago can score 4 runs they will win. If they don’t, they’re going to lose, so use that accordingly in your same game parlay builds.
Offensively for Chicago, were going to need to see Jose Abreu step up – he struggled big time throughout their season series and has never hit well down in Houston. The reigning MVP will need a clutch hit along the way for Chicago to win.
For the Astros, this is the final run for this core offense that includes Correa & Altuve together. Springer already defected and now Correa is going to be gone after this post-season run and it wouldn’t shock me if he was able to carry Houston to the World Series again with a hot streak. It’s very hard on a matchup with Lance Lynn to not like Yordan Alvarez. Overall, the signs point to Houston statistically as the better team, but my gut says that the White Sox pitching is going to come through in a big way and the White Sox advance.
Series Prediction: White Sox win 3 games to 1. Series MVP is Tim Anderson.
RED SOX vs RAYS
Divisional rivals who were fairly even throughout their season series and this series is not like the Chicago/Houston one in terms of starting pitching depth. Tampa is going to trust their young flame throwers to try and get by early and that should work against Boston because Tampa’s offense was very good against Red Sox pitching this year and if they can get the lead I trust Tampa to navigate through the late innings with their bullpen depth.
One key for Tampa is that they get to roll out McClanahan and Shane Baz in the first two games which are obviously at home in the Tropicana Field environment. McClanahan had a 5% higher strikeout rate at home and 10 of the 12 innings that Baz pitched were at home as well. But this isn’t the same Rays team as in prior seasons, this is a deeper lineup which is going to try and win by patching together a bullpen effort while out slugging you along the way. A healthy Meadows along with Nelson Cruz, Wander Franco and a career year Mike Zunino at the bottom of this lineup is what makes this Rays team dangerous.
I mentioned a month or so back that the Blue Jays looked like the 2014 Kansas City Royals to me and they fell just short of squeeking into the playoffs. Well, the Rays remind me of the 2015 Royals team that went on to win the world series with a really good 1-9 lineup, a good backend pen and just enough starting pitching. The Rays are experienced and they are the better team here for a reason. They’re winning this series in the end but Boston will keep it close.
Series Prediction: Rays sweep Boston 3-2. Series MVP is Yandy Diaz
THURSDAY DFS PITCHERS
Shane McClanahan – Most likely to get the win bonus today.
Lance Lynn
CORE HITTERS
Tim Anderson
Nelson Cruz – Chairman of the Dongers Club
Yordan Alvarez
Yandy Diaz
THURSDAY BETS
White Sox Money Line
Tampa Rays Money Line
No runs first inning in either game.
Nelson Cruz to HR
SHORT SLATE PLAYOFF DFS RULES/NOTES/TIPS
Identify your pitcher first: You can sacrifice a hitter spot to ensure you get the right pitcher and you should first ask if there is a pitcher you are confident is going to get the win. Since at most only 50% of a short field has any shot at a win, it’s rare that we find a scenario where the winning pitcher is a starter in the playoffs but when you have a feeling one of them WILL get that bonus then that is a HUGE component. With limited hitters to pick from and teams using pinch hitters/runners as well we’re okay with taking a 0 (or hoping for a PH appearance) to ensure that we got the pitcher we want.
BVP does matter: If a pitcher has seen a hitter a ton and hasn’t done well vs them, they’re going to avoid them with walks in the playoffs. Walks are points, we need everything we can get, but I wouldn’t let BVP factor in on the stud hitters as much as the cheaper guys.
Multi Entry Showdown: This is all about fun as there really isnt any more gambling scenario than a single game showdown in Baseball playoffs. Do yourself a favor and build 3-5 lineups if you aren’t doing an opto MME type build and spread out your captain exposure.