A ten game slate on this Thursday is actually not as large as normal Thursdays and that is nice.  One thing I am encouraging myself and you to do with the larger slates in NHL this season will be to apply the Tier approach on the games to start your research.  At the end of the day whatever games you wind up putting in tiers is not the issue as much as making sure you define tiers to help narrow your exposure.

Tier 1 (most desirable) games for me today include

• Colorado at Florida
• Vancouver at Chicago
• San Jose at Ottawa

Tier 2 games for me today include

• NY Rangers at Nashville
• Calgary at Detroit
• Edmonton at Arizona
• Washington at New Jersey

Tier 3 (not desirable) games for me today include

• Anaheim at Winnipeg
• Carolina at Montreal
• NY Islanders at Columbus

TOP STACKS

Senators — Norris, Tkachuk, Chabot, Batherson

It would be incredibly stupid to sit here and reference team stats through two or three games at this point, but San Jose only allowing 3 total goals combined in their first two games is a stat that I would expect to double tonight.  We get a full PP1 and top line correlation here for a great price.

Blackhawks — Dach, Kane, Jones

Chicago was ran off their home ice on Tuesday night by the visiting Islanders, but this is a much more favorable matchup against the Canucks as the Hawks should have better control of the puck and tempo.  Patrick Kane is the primary target we would want from Chicago tonight but it’s a nice spot for Seth Jones and a cheap Kirby Dach ($3.6k) to correlate with Kane in a 3 man stack.  Of all the games to try and ‘run it back’ with players from both sides this is the top one tonight.

Capitals — Eller, Mantha, Carlson

Road teams are where I look for value on the second line and Washington usually does well vs New Jersey.  Look for Eller-Mantha to be the good value correlation and John Carlson is one of many top pay up defenseman in a great spot.

Avalanche — Kadri, Compher, Burakovsky

Another road value spot to look at.  This game is very tempting to jump into but hard for the high priced guys in my mind to pay off, so look for the value here.

FAVORITE KEY SKATERS

Nazem Kadri

We should expect Kadri to draw more favorable match-ups than the MacKinnon line tonight, and avoiding Barkov’s line and Ekblad on defense is a nice boost.  The secondary defensive pairings for the Panthers have been extremely vulnerable thus far and I can see us getting a nice value from Kadri in a game which should feature 5+ total goals in it tonight.

Other Centers:

• Connor McDavid (EDM) … Out of the pay up options McDavid gets the nod over MacKinnon and Barkov.
• Elias Lindholm (CGY)
• Tomas Hertl (SJ)
• Elias Pettersson (VAN)

Patrick Kane

Chicago is typically a better team at home and Tuesday was just a really tough spot for them.  Kane had 40 points in 28 home games a year ago and should continue to be well above that point per game mark when they can dictate favorable matchups.  Vancouver is the type of team he should rack up a 3+ point night against.

Other Wings:

• Brady Tkachuk (OTT)
• Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
• Brock Boesser (VAN)
• Anthony Mantha (WAS)
• Nils Hoglander (VAN) – Value

John Carlson

The Caps and Carlson have routinely owned the New Jersey Devils and the Devils are once again a bad defensive team in 2021-2022.   For $5,900 Carlson is one of my key three without hesitation on a night where paying up on defense looks very favorable.

Other Defenseman

• Cale Makar (COL)
• Samuel Girard (COL)
• Seth Jones (CHI)
• Thomas Chabot (OTT)
• Ryan Pulock (NYI)

GOALIES

Mikko Koskinen – Edmonton

Arizona is a terrible roster and should be picked on.  End of analysis.

Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus

Anytime Elvis is $7,000 I gotta give it consideration.  The Isles are certainly a tough team to go against but they aren’t one which should push him into the high risk category.  If Columbus can steal this win he’ll pay off immensely.

SLAP SHOTS …

LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT:  

Josh Norris – Brady Tkachuk – Drake Batherson (OTT)

ONE OFF STUD FORWARD:

Patrick Kane (CHI)

ONE OFF VALUE FORWARD:

Nils Hoglander (VAN)

FAVORITE DEFENSE: 

John Carlson (WAS)

BEST LEVERAGE PLAY:

Elvis Merzlikins (CLS)

BETS:

Columbus ML

Sharks/Senators OVER 6

Canucks/Blackhawks OVER 6