Happy Thanksgiving! This year we have three games which are severely lacking the high end drama all around. Between some injuries, COVID and some bad teams it just looks like three games which we wouldn’t be having much fun with on a full main slate.
But that’s alright and if anything it just balances out the slate a little bit to allow us to have flexibility with our lineups rather than worrying about having to have 3-4 core players that the entire field has.
Don’t sweat ownership too much on these three game slates, but also do not be afraid to take the good player who is 20-30% owned. It might sound like high ownership, but that’s where we want to be rather than on the guy who is 60-70% owned and just an average player.
The other ownership thought that I’ll share is that you want to understand how many top end players you have to beat when going with a lower end/cheaper type play. If say there is just 1 good TE then that’s an easier path to fading that player for someone else. Where as if there are 3-4 top end players at a position, it’s going to be harder for a longshot to hit there without the top end players “getting theirs”.
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Injury News
Chicago
- Andy Dalton will start
- Allen Robinson looks to be trending out, which makes me like David Montgomery even more.
- Akeem Hicks is also trending out
Detroit
- Jared Goff is a game time decision, I suspect he plays
Las Vegas
- Nothing new here
Dallas
- Amari Cooper is OUT again due to COVID
- CeeDee Lamb looks to be getting better from his concussion. He is on the Jerry Jones treatment plan clearly.
- Tyron Smith trending towards playing.
Buffalo
- They’re healthy for DFS purposes
New Orleans
- Alvin Kamara trending in a bad direction – but unless they clearly rule him out, he is someone to consider being active but limited
- Adam Trautman is on IR now.
- Taysom Hill is at or near 100%
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Weather Information
Three domes. No issues.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
It’s a mid week holiday game, nobody is having look ahead spots here, but the Bills do have a big game next week against the Patriots.
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Now is their time
Can the Lions get their first win on Thanksgiving against the lowly Bears with Andy Dalton? I think so. The Lions under first year head coach Dan Campbell have been more competitive than their winless record (and one tie) indicates. They made a miracle comeback in week one against the Niners, they had the Ravens beat before Justin Tucker nailed the longest field goal in NFL history, gave the Rams a big score and they had the Steelers down but not out in a rainy and sloppy Heinz Field a few weeks ago. Mix in some other competitive games along the way and one thing is clear — this team is playing hard.
They’re like my old 4th grade basketball team I coached. We just weren’t very good, but dangit when it became our “Super Bowl” and we needed our first win of the season late in the year I got the kids rallied and we pulled off a victory. How did I do it? I told the kids I would buy them a Bowling Party if we won. Not only did we win, but we then pulled off a first round upset in the playoffs…. Just don’t ask how the next playoff game went, but hey, my 5th grade team went undefeated for the championship so there’s hope Lions fans!
Anyways, as I was saying, the Lions are getting their win this week and it’s going to have to come from everyone getting the job done, but on this Thanksgiving slate we do not want to be sitting around waiting for our lineups to accrue points with only players in the late games. You don’t sit around and wait for everyone else to get to Thanksgiving dinner before you start feasting my friends. No sir, the supply chain is getting worse, the malls are being robbed, the gas is going up, we need our fantasy points now and we need our fixings immediately. Load up on some Lions and get your stomach ready for the afternoon nap.
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Afternoon Snoozefest
Casual fans will be all over the Raiders-Cowboys game this afternoon. We’ll see Michael Gallup likely come through a week after being the heavy value chalk, but this is a game where I highly encourage you to take what is obvious and move on but consider a side of a sneaky spot.
The obvious play would be Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys, who loves to Eat on Thanksgiving and jump into that Salvation Army bucket as we all know. The Raiders give up 4.5 ypc on the ground and with Dallas’ O-Line having a big advantage that should be their path to damage in most of thi sgame.
For the Raiders it is Darren Waller, who has had a down season all around but to me both he and Dalton Schultz in this game are the TE who should see the most volume on the slate. The TE position is actually pretty good for this Thanksgiving.
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Happy Taysgiving!
When the Saints lost Jameis Winston to an ACL injury the media talking heads and spreadsheet fantasy analysts who only play seasonal football could not understand why the Saints then decided to go with Trevor Siemien. They then had their pants get buldged at the idea of the Saints paying Taysom Hill $10 million a year for the next four years possibly while he isn’t starting over Trevor.
They’re going to eat crow.
The reason Hill wasn’t starting the last three games is because he had a really bad concussion back in week 5 against Washington — one which resulted in no fine or suspension because the player did not taunt or say mean words to Taysom after he did it. So that is why Hill (who wasnt in the game when Jameis got the ACL injury) was limited the following week against Atlanta and only came in late on one drive to give the Saints a desperate spark as a passer. The following week at Tennessee is when Alvin Kamara missed time so they needed another FLEX player in Hill and then he rolled his ankle which led to them sitting him as the #2 last week vs Philadelphia in a clear ‘fuck it, we’re hurt, lets punt it’ game.
But the plan here was to switch over to Taysom and they cannot wait much longer to do this. Hill is no doubt going to be the full time Quarterback come next week when they take on Dallas and he should move into a role where he is the primary QB option for the Saints, the primary RB option for the Saints and just the primary player on offense all around this week in the night capper.
I mentioned above about how we have to identify the weak position when considering a long shot play and that is what we have with Quarterback. The heavy ownership will go to either Josh Allen or Dak Prescott. Allen is the one who should be ranked #1 for everyone, but that is entirely contingent upon how the Saints offense does. If the Saints offense is playing better then Allen won’t do much because all the numbers about the Saints defense struggling lately are due to them just being on the field the entire game. So this is a double bonus for us. If/when Taysgiving commences it will result not only in Hill producing the fantasy gold for New Orleans, but also limiting Allen’s upside because when the Saints O plays well, their D plays better.
Happy Taysgiving everyone.
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Taysom Hill
The first decision on going all in with Taysom comes down to looking at other QB options on this slate. Let’s immediately cross off Andy Dalton (15 point ceiling), Jared Goff/Tim Boyle (they might throw 2 TD, but wont have 300 yards passing or any rushing upside), and I also don’t see Derek Carr reaching his 300 yard average against Dallas who is going to control the clock all game long. So this leaves us with Dak and Allen as the guys Taysom has to beat out.
He can beat Dak — who is going to give it to Zeke at the goal line — and I already covered that he can beat Allen. The Bills got gashed on the ground by the Colts which is the path to beating them, and Hill should be able to get 50-60 yards rushing with potentiall 2 rushing TD upside. I definitely see him being able to put up a 20 spot and you have the luxury of waiting until late in the day to make your choice on sticking with a combination like Hill naked plus Stefon Diggs (from the Bills) or going with Allen + Manny Sanders as the price combinations are the exact same.
I believe 100% that New Orleans is going to shift to Taysom down the stretch, it’s his turn now that he is healthy.
Josh Allen
I am all in on Taysom, but Allen is the only other QB who I would consider using.
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D’Andre Swift
Will they, could they, should they. All three check the box as yes when it comes to the Lions usage of D’Andre Swift in their home Super Bowl of the season. Swift gets 16 rushes per game, 5.3 receptions per game and has been above or at 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He’s the most consistent thing we have on this entire slate and likely catches a touchdown in addition to rushing one in.
Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke is quietly one of the better pass catching RB in the game and with Cooper out again we should see him and Pollard be featured here in the passing game on some screens. The Cowboys in my mind are going to win this game comfortably and should get 70-90 yards with a touchdown out of Zeke. That’s more than enough to consider him one of our CORE RB plays and we dont have a ton of WR options to consider so playing 3 RB makes sense.
David Montgomery
He should be the bulk of their offense. RB always do well against the Lions and with Andy Dalton starting at QB this is a give the ball to D-Mont 15-20 times and move on spot for the Bears offense.
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Darnell Mooney
This is a very bleak slate for Wide Receivers, but Mooney is clearly performing like a WR #1 right now and Allen Robinson’s lack of health only furthers his role in this offense. He saw a career high 16 targets last week and should not match that this week but he should also have better than a 33% catch rate on those targets vs the Lions as well. His ability to stretch the field on a good playing surface only furthers him as a core play.
Michael Gallup
Last weeks chalk should be immediately at the front of your list again this week. It’s just a terrible WR slate overall and so I don’t want to pay too much around for various options and we gotta assume Lamb isn’t 100% this week. If Lamb does play then it really opens things up even more for Gallup.
Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders only spent one season in New Orleans, so it’s not a huge “revenge” type narrative for Sanders but he’ll no doubt draw some of the weaker coverage assignments when the Bills spread the fields out on the Saints. If you have a bunch of secure WR in your lineup then plug in Gabriel Davis who likely catches a big bomb, but if you want volume then Sanders would be the player I would trust to have a 5+ catch game down in the Superdome.
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Other WR: Stefon Diggs, Hunter Renfrow, Marquez Callaway
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Darren Waller
The volume he will see is just too good to fade on a short slate in my mind. Near 10 targets per game and facing a favorable defense to TE
Dalton Schultz
The only team worse than the Cowboys at defending TE on this slate would be the Raiders. If Lamb sits then consider Schultz a big boost as he saw a jump to 8 targets last week and would be in line for another good game here.
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I really don’t have a defense that I am in love with here but the three home teams to me are the only ones to consider and they’re all about the same.
Dallas Cowboys
Carr makes mistakes and has the third highest sack taken percentage on the slate.
New Orleans Saints
Saints defense has had some bad home games of late but their sack rate should bounce back after chasing Jalen Hurts around without much luck last week.
Detroit Lions
I can totally see their defense scoring in the upset.
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Favorite CORE Build
QB: Taysom Hill
RB: D’Andre Swift
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
TE: Darren Waller
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Favorite Showdown Captains
CHI vs DET: Swift
LV vs DAL: Elliott
BUF vs NO: Taysom
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Thanksgiving Parlay
Lions +3
Cowboys -7.5
Saints +5.5