We have about three main weekends left of regular College Football action with an increase in mid week games as well. This is the home stretch and time to be smart about where you decide to opt into certain games based upon team incentives.
I am sensing a lot of lazy chalk today as folks are simply using pricing and numbers to build into a specific construct across spots without putting enough emphasis on game stacks and this sets up to be a week where you must be invested in a couple games within one lineup for maximum results.
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Oklahoma vs Baylor
I love this game this week, we have some higher prices but finally a real test where Oklahoma is going to be tested by a team (dont give me Texas, whatever) in a spot where Oklahoma is expecting the big test. The tempo should be good enough to justify paying for Caleb Williams and his five figure salary — which might seem bad, but it’s a fairly thin Quarterback slate overall. So we’re chasing the guy who can get us 40 while many others wont top 25.
- Playing Caleb Williams naked is NOT encouraged though. If he is going to pay off, he is going to have to drop a big score and thus it will result in 3 to 4 touchdown passes.
- Our obvious run backs with Baylor might appear to be RB Abram Smith and WR Tyquan Thornton. But to me it’s 100% the passing game and RJ Sneed at $4,500 is a good value who has big play potential. Take him and/or Thornton.
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Maryland vs Michigan State
This should be all one sided, but Maryland has the highest owned QB on the slate in Tua’s little bro because of his price and the Michigan state pass defense being bad. So if he can stay in the game the whole way, he should eventually put up some stats but make no mistake — going into East Lansing the Terps are going to get beat down like … well, I got no analogy, they are just going to get beat down.
- The stack for Michigan State is a RB + WR combination and Kenneth Walker + Jaylon Reed is a combination that many won’t go even though they’re locking in the QB on the other side.
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Purdue vs Ohio State
I’m just going to get straight to the point on this one. This is all about finding studs at good prices in a game with a good deal of points in it. Period. Purdue WR David Bell remains cheap at $6,700 so he is highly likely to hit good value.
- Ohio State WR’s Garrett Wilson $6,900 (DNP last week) and Chris Olave $6,600 are also too cheap. Both likely score and both likely go over 75 yards with 100 yard upside.
- The sneaky play of the day however is TreVeyon Henderson, the freshman is $8,500 but is prime to have 2 rushing touchdowns and 120 yards total on the ground.
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This is a very good game stack week. Just my gut feeling on things and these games are flying under the radar
- Georgia vs Tennessee
- Miss St vs Auburn
- UCF vs SMU
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I do not think you should auto play 2 Quarterbacks this week. For me I really like Oklahoma coming in under 10% ownership in a must win statement game and so Williams will be my main lineup play at an extremely high price point. If you go off Williams, you are spending down here and then just getting balance at RB and WR with no second QB in my mind.
Caleb Williams, Oklahoma – $10,000
I dont mind paying up for someone in a tough spot like this in college football. By “spot”, I view this as a massive game for Oklahoma.
Here’s the deal. They are 9-0 and completely forgotten. All the talk about Oregon, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Michigan State and how they should be ranked and yet nobody is talking about Oklahoma at 9-0 and Oklahoma State at 9-1. Yet, we have a scenario where between Ohio State/Michigan one of them is going to be eliminated for good when they face each other and Oregon is one slip up away from falling off too. So what happens when Oklahoma continues to win? Their next three games are Baylor, Iowa state and Oklahoma State. If they can run those three and run them impressively things can definitely align for Oklahoma to sneak into the College Football playoff.
In a big game like this Oklahoma should have enough possessions for Williams to produce a very solid game and he’s going to not be that chalky for someone with 40 point potential. Furthermore, there’s a MASSIVE decline after him in terms of players who could hit 30 points (let alone 40) this week.
Jordan Travis, Florida State – $6,900
Travis will have to rush in a touchdown to be a star but the path is definitely there for him to do that vs Miami. This could turn into a very ugly game for both offenses with production being randomly spread around and thus I am only looking at Travis naked. We do need to get confirmation that he is 100% going to get the run over Milton, but all signs point that direction for now.
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Just missed the cut: Will Rodgers (Miss St), Bo Nix (Auburn), Taulia Tagovialoa (UMD)
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Kenneth Walker, Michigan State – $8,900
The CFB committee took Michigan State’s loss to Purdue last week and used it as a bullshit reason to slide them behind Michigan this week. So I expect with Sparty at home against a walking dead Maryland defense they will just gash them left and right with Mr. Heisman hopeful Kenneth Walker.
Prior to last week vs Penn State (who has ZERO running game) the Terps had given up 4.3, 5.6 and 5.3 YPC in their prior three and 2+ touchdowns in each game. Projecting Walker, who averages 6.75 YPC and almost 1.5 TD per game to have 18 carries for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns this week seems like a very safe bet.
Tre Siggers, SMU – $5,900
A rough game last week in Memphis for SMU and losing two in a row creates an opportunity to go back to the well in a bounce back home game for them vs UCF. The UCF Knights defense is a strong funnel to the ground game and so if SMU wants to get back in the win column they will be advised to do such on the ground with Siggers who looks 100% to go in this game and has a better than 50% chance of scoring a rushing touchdown. He is worthy of using on a main lineup given his price tag.
Braeleon Allen, Wisconsin – $8,200
We don’t need to waste much time on the matchup analysis for Allen and Wisconsin. They’re getting the worst rush defense not only on the slate but likely what we will see all year right now as Northwestern just shouldn’t even be on the slate. 83% of the touchdowns NW allows come on the ground and they yield well over 200 yards per game to opponents. It’s kind of a sneaky spot for Wisconsin to just try and air it out to give Mertz some confidence but avoiding the running game entirely is just not an option. You can however be cautious with just locking in Allen as Wisconsin should cruise here and have other options out of the backfield to use.
Leddie Brown, West Virginia – $6,100
SOLD. My guy Leddie is too damn cheap once again and a high chance he scores a rushing TD because WVU really needs him when they are on the road. Good volume, cheap price, close game likely.
Breece Hall, Iowa State – $9,500
This is a Breece Hall game. I wasn’t high on the kid having a massive season this year but this is a game they ride him over and over again because there’s no chance in hell I trust Brock Purdy on the road even though the numbers point to Iowa State’s passing game being favorable. I would trust Hall more than those options.
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Contrarian RB of the week
TreyVon Henderson, Ohio State – $8,500
Do not over look Henderson just because Purdue was able to slow down on Kenneth Walker last week. Purdue still is a big funnel to the run giving up 4+ ypc and 60%+ touchdown rate. With Henderson averaging 7+ and Ohio State most certainly having control/lead in this game but not letting up I just envision him breaking a 38 yard touchdown left to right at the top side of your television screen late in the 2nd quarter to make this a 30-7 game – oh and that’s probably his second of the game. He’s our sneaky RB that is sub 10% this week.
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Jadon Haselwood, $6,000 – Oklahoma
This is 100% a gut/instinct/whatever you want to call it spot. If you are in on Oklahoma as I referenced above you cannot be playing the passing game as one offs here because of the price on Caleb Williams. Haselwood has been more consistently his guy and his 6’2 frame is something that I think could be a difference maker in this game.
A week ago Baylor was gashed by 6’4 Quentin Johnston (… side note here, Johnston has put up 0-0-0, 7-185-3, 5-113-0, 2-5-0, 5-142-1 in his last five games and can you identify the two where I touted him? ugh…) anyways, before that Xavier Worthy (6’1) went 4-115-1 vs Baylor. Before that they drew BYU and #1 Puka Nacua (no, I am not making these names up but fuck thats a money name) went 5-168-1. There’s a definitive trend here of 6 foot + #1 receivers consistently tearing up Baylor.
Baylor’s best DB is Jalen Pitre who plays the slot most of the time — where Haselwood will not be. Lock him in for a 6-140-1 game here.
TyQuan Thornton, $6,800 – Baylor
Teams score consistently through the air on the Sooners (70% rate) and the passing game for Baylor to me has to show up for the Bears to have any chance. Thornton is the obvious run back for the Bears with his 31% target rate and 7 touchdowns on the season.
David Bell, $6,700 – Purdue
Bell’s going to be higher owned than he should be in this game, but a lot of it has to do with him being $6.7k when he really should be 8k plus.
Chris Olave, $6,600 – Ohio State
The Ohio State is going to win this game and they’re going to score a good amount of points. With Olave and Wilson both on the field we should see Olave go back to being the red zone threat he has been all season long.
Bo Melton, $5,000 – Rutgers
I have great news. Go tell your wife or significant other the fantastic news. Hey honey, guess what. Guess what.. Guess what. Get her all excited. Then look her (or him) dead in the eye with a straight face and say.
It’s Bo Melton week, how you like dem apples.
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VALUE
Chigoziem Okonkwo – $4,200 – Maryland
Okonkwo has been on my radar multiple times this season and is getting a higher volume due to injuries and Maryland just giving up on running the ball. One way to get some exposure to the Maryland game is through their TE who has been very reliable all season long.
Mario Williams, $4,000 – Oklahoma
Shootout second option in Oklahoma stacks …
RJ Sneed, $4,500 – Baylor
Shootout second option in Baylor stacks ….
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DEEPEST POSITION
Running Back is the deepest, but Wide Receiver has the best PT/$
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VALUE POSITION
Quarterback outside of Caleb Williams
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BETS
Michigan State -12
Ohio State -21
Penn State ML
Oklahoma/Baylor OVER 62.5
West Virginia +6.5
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CORE BUILD
Caleb Williams + Jadon Haselwood + RJ Sneed + Bo Melton
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