The days are getting shorter but the college slates are getting larger. A massive sized slate on DraftKings which honestly could do without a few of these games, most notably.
- Nebraska vs Wisconsin
- Rutgers vs Penn State
- Illinois vs Iowa
In terms of viewership entertainment, these games are the most interesting to me
- Michigan State vs Ohio State
- Iowa State vs Oklahoma
- Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame
- SMU vs Cincinnati
- Virginia vs Pitt
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Michigan State vs Ohio State
Both teams had strong get right spots a week ago against mediocre defenses, and now they bring their own mediocre defenses in to square off in a High Noon battle at the horse shoe this week. I want to say (and believe) that this game will be one where the two defenses find a way to step up their game against strong offenses and the game finishes under the 68.5 over/under. That said, it’s still too good of a match-up for the offenses to not consider some spots here in DFS.
The Ohio State passing game is the obvious leap off the page scenario. Yes, the Stroud-JaxSmithNjigba-Wilson-Olave core is our obvious spot to consider. Michigan State’s pass defense isn’t going to magically get good and should not be expected to slow down this group. Stroud has latched onto Smith-Njigba, which makes sense given that Olave/Wilson are going to be in the NFL next season and he’ll need to be connecting with JSN more but we cannot ignore Olave at $6,400 considering he was the one who had 2+ touchdowns not go his way last week when Wilson went bonkers. It was JSN who went bonkers two weeks ago, Wilson last week and there’s a long fly ball to left field and so that will make it a 4 touchdown game for Chris Olave this week…
…Alright, maybe not four, but you get the idea, we want the OSU passing game. The duck is going to quack here (meaning, if it looks like a duck and acts like a duck then its a duck… get it? No reason to get cute)
- CJ Stroud (9500)
- Chris Olave (6400)
- Jeremy Ruckert (3700)
- Jayden Reed (6500)
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Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame
Upset alert, I like Georgia Tech to cover the big 17.5 point spread and possibly be in position in a one score game late to make this one interesting. Notre Dame is actually a very good team to stack in DFS when they get a up-pace game like this. Their production is Kyren Williams, Michael Mayer, Kyren Williams, more Kyren, a little more Mayer, and then some more Kyren Williams.
If Georgia Tech stays involved it will be using Jahmyr Gibbs any way they can. He’s involved in the passing game and is basically their entire offense that I can trust, so it makes this an easy 3 man game stack
- Kyren Williams (8000)
- Michael Mayer (5600)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (6600)
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SMU vs Cincinnati
If you are someone who prefers the 3:30 pm slate on DraftKings then this is your game. It’s a great slate to build two lineups for the main slate as well with the second one being a pivot off the Ohio State/Michigan State game. Cincinnati at home is going to play their pre-bowl Super-Bowl type game and SMU being a heavy pass team could help make this into a nice shootout.
Love the Ridder-Pierce side and think that Tanner Mordecai is going to be productive enough to warrant a full game stack here.
- SMU: Tanner Mordecai, Reggie Roberson
- Cincinnati: Desmond Ridder, Alec Pierce
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CJ Stroud, Ohio State – $9,500
Let’s see… He’ll throw one to Ruckert, he’ll throw one to Olave, he’ll probably throw one to another WR and one more to one of those guys I mentioned already…. Doing some math here, carry the one, round up, divide by 2.83 and yep, CJ Stroud is gonna be just fine.
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College – $4,500
This is just a ridiculously stupid mistake by DraftKings which they should have corrected. If he was $6,400 he would be somewhat curious of a play and if he was $5,400 he would be obvious chalk that we might consider fading. But he is $4,500!!! Against a below average defense in Florida State that has allowed 22 passing touchdowns on the season through 10 games, a QB rating of 133.6 and has to travel from warm Florida to cooler Massachussets for this game. Jurkovec went 13-20-310-2 against Georgia Tech last week. He probably does better this week and is just the free square we’re gonna take in S-FLEX. Thanks for ruining the slate DK.
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Just missed the cut: Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Tanner Mordecai
You don’t want to pivot off Jurkovec in my mind, he is a S-FLEX value play to treat just like he is a RB or a WR who is going to touch the ball a ton for very cheap. So your decision today is just QB1 and Stroud is going to get into the 20’s which means any pivot off him has to be someone who has 30 or 40 point upside today. That narrows down the pool to these guys mentioned above.
Desmond Ridder is the top choice of these other studs in my mind — it’s a passing game spot against SMU and a game I expect to be high scoring
Kenny Pickett is probably the most talented and has the best WR1 option of the next group. He doesn’t run much but could sneak away with a rushing touchdown vs a bad rush defense.
Tanner Mordecai is the deep sleeper. I like the game for points, I like the other side and we know SMU loves to throw the ball (38+ times/game). He could have a big day solely on winding up throwing it 50 times.
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Leddie Brown, WVU – $6,200
Better off paying up at Wide Receiver this weekend and when they give us the gift of Leddie Brown at home vs Texas for $6,200 we just take it and move right along to the next offering.
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame – $8,000
The second worst rush defense today is Georgia Tech’s, so Kyren Williams is going to have no problems getting his 20 carries for 125 yards and a score. You can’t convince me he isn’t the top RB at the end of the day, it’s only a matter of paying up for him to have a HUGE game. I expect this game to remain close, so Kyren has big 2 TD upside.
Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh – $5,300
I am extremely confident that Pitt will have a rushing touchdown from one of their RB vs UVA. The Virginia defense has given up around 7 yards per carry in three of their last four games and Abanikanda when healthy has controlled the backfield more than other options for Pitt. The challenge for the Panthers RB’s though is their QB is so good and is going to continue to raise his draft stock with his arm. But we’re not asking for much at $5300 and Abanikanda projects to have a 3x day.
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Contrarian RB of the week
Jahmyr Gibbs, Georgia Tech – $6,600
Most will look at Notre Dame as the opponent and just assume they’re going to win easily on Georgia Tech however I see a closer game with the Rambling Wreck using Gibbs as the difference maker. He has a slate high 15% target share for running backs and Notre Dame has also given up most of their touchdowns via the ground this season. Those two factors have me projecting Gibbs with a high PPR game, plus a rushing score on the road in a game that I feel is going overlooked.
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FADES
Roschon Johnson (Texas) – At $3,800 he will be a popular play filling in for Bijan who is out for the season. But this isn’t a smash game like the MSU/OSU game which has someone in it at this same price point that I love. I’ll pass on Roschon getting a 9 or 11 because we have other value options instead.
Will Shipley (Clemson) – Yes, Wake has been bad against the run all season, but Clemson is not a team I want to trust with someone over $6,000 anymore. Give me Gibbs over Shipley all day.
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Chris Olave, Ohio State – $6,400
Spin the roulette wheel with Wilson, Olave and Jaxon Smith Njigba. They’ll all see roughly the same amount of targets for sure, and thus I am expecting the law of averages to come around for Olave this week.
Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh – $7,100
With some other guys banged up Pittsburgh’s offense is going through their best player in Addison lately. The only negative on Addison is that teams destroy UVA on the ground, so it’s a big question if we see Pitt try to use their rotational backs to do the work here or if Addison can get that extra volume he needs to out do the OSU/MSU type guys, but I would rather have him than other one off WR’s on this slate like Dotson, Hutchinson, Bell, etc.
Jayden Reed, Mich St – $6,500
The Spartans have more weapons on offense for Ohio State to worry about than their opponent Purdue did a week ago. And in that game David Bell still managed to “get his”, so Reed will no doubt “get his” against Ohio State this week. Since he is under 7k, he’s definitively a core type play.
Reggie Roberson, SMU – $4,900
2% owned WR who has slate smashing upside. With the volume that SMU throws, Roberson’s 15% target share is more like 30% for many other teams. Cincinnati has a great defense but they’ll likely focus on stopping Rashee Rice which opens up Roberson to have a big play or two in this game. His price tag is extremely good and it’s a slate to go deep at WR on, so we’re locking in a fourth WR for sure.
Alec Pierce, Cincinnati – $7,600
Cincinnati is the most likely team to compete with Ohio State for most points scored on this slate. If they do such, it will be Ridder having a massive game through the air with Alec Pierce hauling in two touchdowns. SMU struggled to defend the Memphis passing game consistently on key third downs on the road a couple weeks ago and this is a much better team they will face this week. Cincy’s last chance to make a HUGE splash and they’re at home where they should play extremely well.
Zay Flowers, Boston College – $6,700
I am highly anticipating that Boston College Quarterback Phil Jukovec is a chalky play given his bad price-tag. Jurkovec was back last week but only went to Flowers four times which is lower than his normal average — yet he connected for 2 catches, 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is a spot where the reception volume should come up and the touchdown upside remains, so he’s a nice correlation play with the chalky Jurkovec.
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VALUE
Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State – $3,700
Good news for us is that Ruckert only saw one target last week, so everyone might be cautious with trying to use him but I can honestly say he is one of my favorite lock plays on this slate. Maryland was able to destroy Michigan State with the TE last week and with all the attention going to the big 3 WR for Ohio State it should be Ruckert who gets completely ignored down in the red zone. I don’t know that I have been more confident in a first touchdown going to a random one off player like this all season. Ruckert hauls in a 6 yard touchdowon to start things off, finishes with 4 catches for 60 yards on the day and is the perfect value play in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Beaux Collins, Clemson – $4,500
It has been a lost season for the Tigers but we are seeing more out of Freshman Collins who is a big framed WR, filling in a long line of Clemson WR’s who have big frames. Beating up Wake Forest is better done on the ground but I cannot trust anything with Clemson’s rushing game consistently – so consider Collins here to continue a recent strong stretch.
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DEEPEST POSITION
Wide Receiver, by a country mile.
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VALUE POSITION
No specific position, but my two value plays are Jurkovec / Ruckert
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BETS
Boston College -1.5
Oklahoma -3.5
West Virginia -2.5
Wake / Clemson UNDER 56.5
Georgia Tech / Notre Dame OVER 58.5
SMU/Cincinnati OVER 65 as this winds up being the game of the day.
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CORE BUILDS
Primary Lineup – CJ Stroud + P.Jurkovec + J.Ruckert + Leddie Brown
Second High $ Tournament Lineup – Ridder/Pierce & Mordecai/Roberson + Jahmyr Gibbs
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