And away we go with more rivalry and Senior Game narratives this weekend before we get into heavy Championship and Bowl season. This is when we continue to strike gold.
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Some one off game stacks stand out well today, which is good news for the multi-entry folks who want to try and have a couple sweats going. Otherwise it’s a one off day for those of us who build one lineup. Here are the multi-entry spots to build around.
Florida St vs Florida
This looks like it will be the Anthony Richardson show now for the Gators which going against Jordan Travis gives us two guys who can use their legs and are both sub $7,000. That immediately tells us this game has game stack potential and when you add in that Florida has allowed 17 passing touchdowns and Florida State has allowed 23 passing touchdowns then we can go WR hunting to pair with them as well.
- Jordan Travis & Andrew Parchment
- Anthony Richardson & Jacob Copeland (or consider Senior Kemore Gamble)
Texas Tech vs Baylor
This is mostly one sided as Baylor should just roll right past Texas Tech, but do not be afraid to run it back with a cheap SaRodorick Thompson or Erik Ezukanma
- Gerry Bohanon + Abram Smith + Tyquan Thornton/RJ Sneed
- Erik Ezukanma
Maryland vs Rutgers
If Rutgers defense shows up they’ll run Maryland out of the building, but if they dont …. well then strap something on and hold on tight my friends because Rakim Jarrett is coming off a low 2 target game in Week 12 vs Michigan and he is going to go buck wild with Baby Tua for the Terps.
The Rutgers side is mostly Bo Melton, a 25+% target share at home on Senior day vs a bad Maryland defense. We can take a gamble on a Rutgers stack around Noah Verdal + Bo Melton as well, but only in the context of hoping for chaos here.
- Tua + Jarrett
- Verdal + Melton
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And just missed the cut
- Alabama vs Auburn
- VT vs UVA
- Wake vs Boston College
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There is an overwhelming theme with the group of Quarterbacks today. They all wanna run, run, run. All of the Quarterbacks who grade our favorably are those with just enough rushing upside to make it such that we should expect our optimal QB pairing (yeah, its probably a 2 QB day) to wind up with two guys who both ran for 40-50 yards and a touchdown.
Anthony Brown, Oregon – $7,700
Oregon cost themselves a playoff spot last week, but in a huge rivalry game at home the Senior dual threat QB should lead the Civil War charge for the Ducks. This is likely going to wind up being the game of the day if Oregon State can push the tempo with Oregon, so it’s very hard to ignore Brown since he is the primary focal point in the Ducks offense.
Sean Clifford, Penn State – $6,100
Another week of Clifford chalk is likely upon us but it won’t be 30% because of so many options. He has a clear path to getting a solid floor game through the air as Michigan State isn’t exactly going to change their stripes and become an elite pass defense. So one connection to Dotson is all we ask for here and I would suspect that Dotson plans to play in their Bowl Game too so we’re not gonna see some one half and then oh man, I’m going to the NFL type scenario here from his star receiver. So a sure thing 50 yard touchdown bomb, plus 30 yards rushing and another 150 through the air for $6,100 as a floor and yeah he’ll do just fine.
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College – $7,800
They fixed the price on Jurkovec and thus he will drop down to sub 10%, but a guy who runs it 7.8 times per game for 6.5 YPC and 1 TD per game at home against a defense which has given up 21 rushing touchdowns, 213 ypg and > 5 ypc on the season. Jurkovec should more than make up for the price increase.
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Also Like: Gerry Bohanon, Jordan Travis, Anthony Richardson
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Pat Garwo, Boston College – $6,100
Garwo could be on his way to becoming the next A.J. Dillon as he is pushing 30-24-24 attempts over their last three. I strongly feel the key to the DFS slate as a whole this week is winning what happens with Boston College/Wake. Do you fade the game? Do you ride the BC gashing Wake on the ground scenario? Is it Jurk at low ownership? Is it chalky Garwo? Honestly, it’s all variance but the trend is going towards Garwo getting 20+ carries against a team who gives up 6 yards per carry. He should exceed value.
Chase Brown, Illinois – $6,800
I usually hate these type of plays but Brown cannot be ignored. He is averaging around 17 for 100 on the season but just has 4 touchdowns playing for a below average offense. That touchdown variance gets a major uplift today at home against a 70/30 split team like Northwestern. 70/30 means that NW is giving up 70% of their touchdowns on the ground this season and so we have a mid range RB + at home + favored + facing a bad rush defense = strong TD upside game for Brown.
Raheem Blackshear, Virginia Tech – $5,900
UVA is a horrible rush defense. Over their last four games they have given up 7ypc in 3 of those 4 games, which should prove favorable for the Hokies offense led by Blackshear and Malachi Thomas.
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SLEEPER OF THE DAY
Brian Robinson, Alabama – $8,600
Robinson has averaged 27.8 fantasy points in road games for the Crimson Tide this year and I expect a little bit of a struggle for ‘Bama against their in state rivals which means he becomes their go to player in a close game down the stretch.
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Jahan Dotson, Penn State – $7.900
My dog could catch 5 passes for 100 yards against Michigan State, and he has a torn up knee, so Dotson might do that here too and maybe he pulls an Elijah Moore and pee’s on the Michigan State fans like a dog? Ok, don’t do that Dotson…
Bo Melton, Rutgers, – $5,100
Senior day home narrative against yucky Maryland defense. Bo knows.
Tyquan Thornton, Baylor – $7,000
Another senior in a home game against a defense which has no secondary able to slow him down from getting 7-70 and a touchdown floor.
John Metchie, Alabama – $7,500
I am not a heavy MME guy but if I were to do 50 lineups or so today they would have either Brian Robinson, John Metchie or fellow WR Jameson Williams. One of these players winds up having a huge day and even if Robinson is the guy like my gut says, Metchie can still produce a solid floor as the leader in target share against a defense which gives up 67% completion rates.
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VALUE / Senior Narratives
Shameen Jones – Rutgers – $3,400
Jake Ferguson – Wisconsin – $3,200
RJ Sneed – Baylor – $4,500
Trevon Bradford – Oregon State – $6,000
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DEEPEST POSITION
Quarterback
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BEST VALUE
This is a spread it out slate, but Quarterback has nice value on it.
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EXPECTED CHALK
Penn State Passing game
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BETS
- Baylor -14.5
- FSU/Florida OVER 59
- Oregon -6.5
6 Point Tease
- Boston College +11 / Virginia Tech +13
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CORE PLAYS
- Anthony Brown
- Johan Dotson
- Bo Melton
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