The massive Saturday slates are winding down this year, but we still have a few weeks left and this is a massive one indeed.
Two games have totals north of 70, two games are in the upper sixties and then there are a considerable amount of mid to upper 50 games with fairly close spreads overall. It should be a solid day for game stack lineups in the larger field tournaments and is also a slate where you have to pick your value wisely but its not a multi-value player slate.
What I mean by that is, there’s really not a lot of depth at the value discussion this week.
SMU vs Memphis
Everyone knows that Memphis has a rough time of thing when it comes to Mustangs and if you do not get the Movie reference there then think long and hard and then if you still do not get it please reconsider your life decisions and go watch Gone in 60 Seconds, thank you.
On this fine Saturday, the Eleanor is going to be one Tanner Mordecai, the Junior QB rolls into town completing over 67% of his passes with 32 TD on the year. While the opponents aren’t very stout for SMU so far, neither is Memphis as they give up 270 yards through the air per game and 17 touchdowns on the season. We should see Mordecai push over 300 yards and 3 TD in this one and he has great value at WR with Rashee Rice and Danny Gray. Do not overlook Senior Reggie Roberson who also have 5 touchdowns on the season and is equally involved.
The Memphis run it back on Memphis has to be Calvin Austin due to his 35% target share. With a high price tag his ownership is staying down a little bit on this large slate, so if you have two SMU receivers then you just gotta gotta gotta have Calvin Austin and just ride all in on this game.
Wake Forest at UNC
We have the marquee game of the day but a tough one to DFS stack. This slate is void of heavy value at running back specifically so its hard to come out and justify locking in Hartman-Roberson-Howell-Downs as your QB1-WR1 combination on both sides without stomaching some pepto-bismol elsewhere. But I really love the Ty Chandler ground attack for UNC against Wake and will be taking the Tar Holes to win this game outright and cover the -2.5. You want exposure here for sure, stacking it is advised on second or third lineups.
Other games with high scoring upside
- Liberty vs Ole Miss … Liberty ground game, which is through their QB or value RB today
- Penn State vs Maryland … Like the air attack a lot for Penn State
- Baylor vs TCU … Good value at QB potentially in this game
Despite some high total games and Quarterbacks who can air it out, we don’t have an automatic team to target due to a bad pass defense. So I see this slate playing out for a rushing Quarterback to dominate as QB1.
Malik Willis, Liberty – $9,300
I am a little shocked that Ole Miss is favored here by 10 because Liberty is a really sneaky spot for Ole Miss to handle – but we still want to jump on the Liberty side. QB Malik Willis is in a great spot to have a big dual threat type game for Liberty since he averages 5.4 ypc on 14 carries per game and the Ole Miss weakness is most certainly defending the rush.
Tanner Mordecai, SMU – $9,000
Here’s your easy path through the air QB. He should shred the Memphis defense through the air and has one of the highest completion rates in the country.
Gerry Bohanon, Baylor – $7,600
TCU cannot stop anyone on the ground right now and this late into the season things like that do not suddenly change. Baylor is led by RB Abram Smith, who we rode to a big game last week for the second week in a row – however he is the same price as Gerry B. and at a deeper position. The thing about this game which stands out to me is that data wise, Baylor should be more than a 7 point favorite even on the road, which tells me this will be a closer game than it should and Baylor ends up having to win this through their QB.
Sneaky call has Bohanon rushing a touchdown in along with two through the air.
Value Options – These are okay to consider as QB1/S-Flex plays today
Sean Clifford, Penn State – $6,000
Due to recent struggles and injuries we have seen Clifford really drop off on his price all the way down to where I can’t ignore him getting 4x today. The Maryland defense is middle of the road but should have no strong answer for stopping Johan Dotson from busting a big reception in this game and I would anticipate Clifford getting some rushing yards here too, but not that many.
Chandler Morris, TCU – $4,500
I hate writing up four Quarterbacks let alone five, but with the potential for needing some value and having a $4500 starting QB possibly we gotta give a long consideration to Morris. His path to getting you value far exceeds any other player on this slate who is below $5,000.
Ty Chandler, UNC – $6,600
In the big game of the day down in Carolina, I would lean on the ground game not only because of match-up but also DFS Pricing. Chandler is a really good back behind a solid offensive line and Wake Forest has been beaten on the ground in recent weeks and should be once again here
Abram Smith, Baylor – $7,300
Another week to strongly consider Smith as he has yet another fantastic rushing matchup. I dont know why he is going so low owned this week but he’s in another smash spot.
Georgia Backs: James Cook – $5,900 & Zamir White – $7,100
Nobody is really excited that we have Mizzou vs Georgia on this slate. Some kid from Athens could wake up on Saturday morning, eat his pancakes, watch some cartoons and then stroll down to the stadium and probably rush for 150 and 3 scores against the fucking Missouri Tigers. The only concern here would be Georgia just limiting their backs to no more than 1 TD each on the way to a 79-3 win.
TJ Green, Liberty – $4,700
The only value running back I have a ton of confidence in today would be Green in a high paced game against a poor rushing defense. We know that most of the ground damage for Liberty is done by Malik Willis who leads the team with 14 rushing touchdowns on the season. Green however could be called upon more this week since most teams take the strategy of slowing the game down against Ole Miss through the ground. High risk here as he could wind up only with 5-6 carries, but he has big play potential with them and isn’t going to cost you a ton.
Low owned Stud of the day
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati – $8,300
Is this statement time for Cincinnati? They sure need to make a big one and I gotta imagine we can see them just continue to run up the score all game long to make a statement. We have seen Ridder play better in recent games but this one if Cincy’s defense does what I think they will should result in short yardage fields for the offense and Ford punching in 2 or 3 home touchdowns. In four home games this season Ford has 10 touchdowns compared to just 4 in their four road games. His last two home games, both blowouts, resulted in 338 yards on 35 carries for 6 touchdowns.
FADE
Jaylen Warren – Oklahoma State
Warren is getting a ton of volume and has a very reasonable price tag this week, so if he is your last player and he fits and you don’t want to change anything else then fine. But this is not the path for Oklahoma State to beat West Virginia. The Mountaineers are stout against the run allowing just 2.9 ypc on the ground and in their home environment I anticipate WVU shutting down Oklahoma State’s dynamic back. I would much rather have Leddie Brown for $6900 here in this same game. Warren projects around 20-30% ownership today and Chandler/Brown are better pivots in my mind.
David Bell – $7,400
I haven’t pulled the ownership projections yet but I really hope everyone see’s Michigan State and moves on to other spots. Bell is going to absolutely MURDER the Spartans who are coming off a big win vs Michigan but still suck ass against the pass.
Jahan Dotson, Penn State- $7,600
Take Dotson even if you do not correlate him with Sean Clifford because of solid QB options elsewhere. The other night in the MACtion we saw Khalil Pimpleton have a multi touchdown game through the return game and I can just see Dotson doing something similar in the passing game or on a quick screen where he catches it and is just running around college park, MD like he is on the outerloop of the beltway.
Chris Olave – $6,900
This smells like a get right game for Olave. Although he has continued to find the end zone each week for 9 times total this season he has gone two games in a row with under 50 yards total receiving and under 3 receptions in each. Nebraska is a slower team but struggles to defend premium WR and Ohio State should make a statement here through the air on them.
Rashee Rice – $5,600
Hard to play Mordecai naked and his top WR option is between Rashee Rice and Danny Gray, but as I mentioned above we shall not forget about Reggie Roberson here as well. All three are okay to consider and good luck with your roulette wheel.
Also on my radar
Michael Mayer (Notre Dame)
- Michael Mayer to me should have a really big game and come in around 2-3% ownership. Nice Flex play.
Parker Washington (PSU)
Tyquan Thornton (Baylor)
Taylor Morin (Wake)
DEEPEST POSITION
In total depth WR is the deepest position to expand your player pool with today as it has a ton of spots. Quarterback obviously has high priced guys at it which look great but Running Back is where I struggle to find value.
VALUE POSITION
No specific position, so here are the punt/value plays to look at outside of the TCU Quarterback status.
- WR – Montorie Foster – Michigan State – $3,000 chalk play
- WR – Sean Dykes – Memphis
- WR – Samori Tourre/Zavier Betts – Nebraska
- RB – Trestan Ebner – Baylor
- RB – TJ Green – Liberty
BETS
- UNC -2.5
- Purdue +3
- Cincy -22.5
- Ohio State -15
- PSU/UMD Over 55.5
CORE BUILDS
This is a great slate for throwing in a few extra lineups, but I will most definitely stick to balanced build on my MAIN lineup today which will be in cash and across many contests.
But these are the A-B-C alternative type builds
A: Receivers win in College.
- Building around David Bell and Calvin Austin to start feels tough but these two guys have 30-40 point potential today.
B: There are enough RB in good spots today to justify having 4 RB in a lineup together. We always get suckered into the 2 QB play but RB are on a roll in college this season.
- Abram Smith, Zamir White, Ty Chandler and a value like TJ Green (Liberty) gets you building a solid core.
C: Two game stacks together with 1 QB from each.
- The QB-WR-Opp & QB-WR-Opp Build.