CFB Tailgate – Dec 4th

Championship Saturday is upon us with eight really good games that will stretch from Noon EST to 8PM tonight.  There are likely to be extra “late” type slates that open up if you are into wanting more action than just the MAIN slate of games and I honestly understand you when you will inevitably click on them.  I do…  Let’s glance at the eight games –>

• Baylor vs Oklahoma State – Big XII (Dallas)
• Kent State vs Northern Illinois – MAC (Detroit)
• Utah State vs San Diego State – Mountain West (Carson, CA)
• Appalachian State vs Louisiana – Sun Belt (Lafayette)
• Georgia vs Alabama – SEC (Atlanta)
• Houston vs Cincinnati – AAC (Cincinnati)
• Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest – ACC (Charlotte)
• Michigan vs Iowa – Big 10 (Indianapolis)

As you can see we have three games which are being played at the host school’s stadium (Mtn West, Sun Belt & AAC), while the rest are neutral site games.  None of these games have any weather concerns.

Couple Sat Morning thoughts

• The SEC Championship is a ticking time bomb at my gut all morning.  The SEC had a DOWN year offensively if you think about it.  The best offense at times was Tennessee and even Ole Miss/Miss St who were perennial high scoring offenses had a down year.  So why would this one explode??  Because I don’t think either defense is as all world as everyone thinks against the pass and we’re going to see both passing offenses have solid games.  Just my gut feeling
• So there are 2 big games (ACC/MAC) and then the SEC game on the radar today.
• I crossed off the under play on the App St/ULL Game.  Outside of the big 3 mentioned above this one has lots of juice in it and the ULL side is where I want to be.  Levi Lewis is a longshot sneaky play here and Chris Smith (RB) is another value RB to consider.

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Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest

If you want the game with the best QB and WR to potentially make plays this is the one to invest in.  I was actually a little shocked the total on this game was well over 70 because Pittsburgh has a decent enough defense to not be constantly giving up plays and the Wake Defense’s weakness is on the ground — which Pittsburgh lacks any desire to do.

That said, this one is very straight forward.  You want to pay for the QB and stack them with pass catchers.

For Pitt, Jordan Addison is one of the best WR in the country and priced appropriately at $9,300, I don’t think we are using him at that price in main lineups because it would be suicide.  So consider Senior TE Lucas Krull at $3,900 to open up salary relief allowing for a full Pickett-Addison-Krull stack.

For Wake, Jaquarri Roberson at sub 7k is always in play, he should avoid some of the better coverage spots on the Pitt defense and would be my pick over AT Perry.

Kent State vs Northern Illinois

Welcome to the MAC Championship game and it should be heavily owned given that the total is 74 (and climbing) while no other game has a total even in the 60’s this week.  I like the ground attack for Kent State, which really is not saying much since they averaged 5.3 ypc (3rd best) and the Northern Illinois defense gave up 5.7 ypc on the season which ranked 120th in the nation.  Ironically they just met on November 3rd with Kent State winning 52-47 off a whopping 362 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns.

Northern Illinois rested some players in their final game last week and I like them to come out and play good ball control to try and keep their defense off the field as much as possible.  Really, that is the only path where this game winds up not being a massive TD fest.

• Dont mind Jay Ducker here for NIU

Georgia vs Alabama

It just feels like SEC Championship games in the Georgia Dome (or whatever they call it) is always a sneaky game for some big plays from the WR Position.

Georgia is a disaster to project but star WR George Pickens who has been out with an ACL injury all year returned a week ago and appears full go this week giving us a talented player at min price while seemingly being off everyone’s radar.  Look for the WR in this game to do the most damage on both teams.

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Kenny Pickett – Pittsburgh – $9,700

With some decent value at RB on this slate I feel comfortable paying up at QB with the guy who has some strong factors going for him this week.  The Pittsburgh WR attack is healthy, the opponent is going to air it out as well and the opponent is also suspect to allowing rushing touchdowns to the opposing Quarterback — something we would like to get for his high price tag.

Dustin Crum – Kent State – $8,300

A fast paced game most likely should see Crum get plenty of production even if he’s handing it off along the way quite a bit.  Crum will run as well, averaging 11 carries per game and over 4 yards per cary.  He found paydirt with his legs 11 times on the season and should figure to possibly vulture one away from Cooper too. You can definitely play them together.

Rocky Lombardi – Northern Illinois – $7,500

He is going to have to improve on his accuracy for them to steal this game, but I like thier chances a ton to do that.  NIU cannot win without him being very good.

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Marquez Cooper – Kent State – $6,500

In that game back on November 3rd, Cooper finished with 173 yards on 23 carries and 2 touchdowns, so the fact that he is only $6,500 this week is just pointless as he figures to see similar volume and production.  If he isn’t 80% owned I would be shocked to be honest.  Take it.

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The next player you decide to put into your lineup is likely going to determine if you are winning 15x+ or not today.  The second RB on this slate in my mind is going to default to a value play for many but I believe you should be chasing a primary workhorse option over the split backfields for your 2nd RB.

In other words, you could go NIU (Ducker/Ratkovich), Pitt (Abanikanda/Davis) or App St (Good luck, it should be Peoples, but who the heck knows) or you can trust one of these workhorses.

Jaylen Warren – Oklahoma State – $6,600

The offense for the Cowboys should run through him like it did early in the season.  There is an outside shot that Ok State gets into the CFP playoff with some wild magic (Iowa beating Michigan) and they seem to have been taking the gas off Warren of late and he should be well rested to control the game.  His highest touch game of the year was vs Baylor when he saw the ball 36 times and while I don’t think he matches that, he would be someone we want at over 20~ touches in this game.

Jerome Ford – Cincinnati – $7,100

The fact that Cincinnati is getting a true home game makes me think they’re going to finish it off and make the committee put them in with a 20 point victory.  That cannot happen without Ford finding the end zone twice and the Bearcats defense should do a good job of taking away Houston’s primary offensive weapon giving them plenty of possessions and likely some short field scenarios for that 2 TD Ford game.

Camerun Peoples – Appalachian State – $4,000

This is a very risky play given the unknown of what App State is going to do usage wise, but it’s a low price tag with plenty of upside.  When App St. gives Peoples the carries he has produced on the season and it’s only been the last two weeks where they have been spreading the love around.  In a big Champ game like this I would think there’s reason to believe they go back to Camerun and Nate Noel ($4700) as the 1-2 backs and at their prices they are decent plays with my lean going to Camerun Peoples.

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Jaquarri Roberson – Wake Forest – $6,500

The Panthers defense has only given up 21 passing touchdowns on the season but over half of those have come from opposing players who line up in the slot.  This was a spot I tried to attack earlier in the season and ran into a big windy game.  That won’t be the case this week in Charlotte where it will be mid 70’s and clear all game long.  This game cannot shoot out without Roberson going off.

Deven Thompkins – Utah State – $7,400

Show me a sure thing 2 TD game and I will show you my bank account for a deposit.  This game has no business with a 50 total and the San Diego State defense was a MASSIVE funnel to the pass allowing 83% of their touchdowns through the air while holding teams to a pathetic 2.61 yards per carry on the ground.  The Utah State offense will connect with their Senior WR1 not once, but twice.

Trayvon Rudolph – Northern Illinois – $6,900

So how exactly does Northern Illinois slow this game down to keep their terrible rush defense on the side?  Ball control, but not through their ground game because that’s not their strength.  It has to be the passing game with Trayvon Rudolph leading the team at 25% target share.  Kent State gave up nearly 300 yards per game passing and a 63% completion rate on the season.  He should see a high # of targets like he did when they met previously and for sure his 300 yard receiving game that he had then is going to be on the radar of many.

Jordan Addison – Pittsburgh – $9,300

Pittsburgh won’t win a shootout without Addison having a 2 TD game.  If you can force him in he won’t kill you but I see other WR that are worth using here so a balanced type lineup can get by without Addison.

One thing to note, when Pitt played UNC earlier he finished 6-84 and UNC like Wake is a team you can dominate on the ground.  If we see a similar attack by Pitt then Addison would likely just be “average” by his standards.

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VALUE

Lukas Krull – Pittsburgh – $3,900

Senior TE for Pittsburgh is involved enough with a 12% target share and given their volume that means he should see 4-5 targets in this game with strong TD upside.  We need a value WR/Flex on this slate and picking one from this game is not stupid.

George Pickens – Georgia – $3,000

Pickens is a very talented WR and he has missed the season due to an ACL injury but made his debut last week against Georgia Tech.  He will be active and should see enough usage in this game to justify this $3,000 price tag.  Heck, I used him in the exact same scenario a couple years ago when he was suspended the first half of the game and he still came through, so there’s something about Pickens in the Georgia Dome that just screams must start.

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DEEPEST POSITION

Wide Receiver

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CONTRARIAN SPOT

Your second RB is where you should be contrarian this week.

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BEST VALUE POSITION

3rd Wide Receiver

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Sub 5% owned longshot values

Camerun Peoples & Nate Noel (App St)

Taylor Morin (Wake)

Shocky Jacques-Louis (Pitt) – Senior WR who is in play if Taysir Mack is OUT

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Good Players who are contrarian

Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)

Jerome Ford (Cincinnati)

Blake Corum / Hassan Haskins (Michigan)

• Haskins is contrarian, Corum is not.  But I am not touching Corum.

Tyquan Thornton (Baylor)

John Metchie (Bama)

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BETS

Bet the board Saturday…

• Northern Illinois +3.5
• Oklahoma State -5.5
• Appalachian State / Louisiana UNDER 53
  • Gimme Louisiana-Lafayette +3 here.
• San Diego State -6
• Georgia / Alabama OVER 49.5
  • Monitor this one in game, could start slow and you can buy a lower number in game.
• Houston / Cincinnati UNDER 52.5
• Iowa +10.5
• Pittsburgh -3

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CORE PLAYS

Marquez Cooper

Jaq Roberson

George Pickens and/or Lucas Krull