The extended lock out really put a hamper on my pre-season plans for breaking down content, but we are finally in that sweet spot of being two weeks out from Opening Day and thus it is time to put down some notes and thoughts for the upcoming season.
AL EAST CLIFF NOTES
What you need to know
- The Jays and Red Sox once again have high powered offenses
- The Yankees once again are relying upon too many overrated players, while the Rays are the Rays.
- The Orioles did something really stupid with their Stadium to the left field wall to reduce offense from RH hitters. Congrats to John Means.
Pick to Win the Division
Toronto Blue Jays – I like what Toronto has done with their pitching and it extends beyond the starting rotation which exported Robbie Ray as he departed for Seattle and imported Kevin Gausman. To me that’s close to a wash in terms of what they will get and combined with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios and future stud Alek Manoah they have enough durable arms that will give them a ton of innings allowing the Bullpen to fill in when need be. The pen is loaded with guys who have been around long enough as well so we have established players that just need to fiddle out their roles. The lineup obviously needs no further promotion and even with the loss of Marcus Semien they should once again be one of the top HR teams in all of Baseball.
They are not a SLAM dunk to win the division, but I trust them more than Boston, Tampa and New York (in that order).
Pick to finish last
Baltimore Orioles – This isn’t a knock on the Orioles as much as it is a reality check that they just aren’t there yet. Their April schedule is brutal, the lineup is still going to struggle at times and the pitching is 1-2 years away from being relevant. But make no mistake, this roster and farm system is very talented for the long run and they will be making noise very soon.
Three Pitching Takes
Alek Manoah … He is the closest thing to Jose Fernandez we have seen. There will be at minimum half a dozen double digit strikeout games this year.
Gerrit Cole … After some struggles and a really bad stretch last year with the spidey-tack this should be a very calm and consistent season for Cole who finishes with 16 wins, leading all AL East pitchers.
Tampa SP Struggle … This is finally the year their SP magic fails to make wonders. They will be back to the opener role as a consistent process faster than you can blink and the Ryan Yarbrough/Shane McClannahan experiments go south on them in a hurry. Tampa SP finish with the 4th highest xERA in the division.
Three Hitting Takes
Teoscar Hernandez … An all-star who will become more of a consistent threat and valued as one of the best power hitters in the game. Expect a 30+ HR and 100+ RBI season putting him in some ‘MVP’ conversations. But let’s be frank – he can’t win MVP on this team.
Josh Donaldson … The bringer of rain historically has not hit well in New York but should do just fine going on the road within the division. At this stage in his career however he is not a 162 game guy much less not a 120 game guy. The Yankees are going to get a sneaky good season from Gleyber Torres which pushes someone like LeMahieu over to 3B possibly and JD to the bench when he is “tired”. Donaldson has under 80 RBI this season.
Rougned Odor … Finishes with 20+ HR
Player to have a down season
Brandon Lowe – Tampa Bay
I totally get that Wander Franco makes this lineup that much better because of his insanely low strikeout rate, but on the flip side Brandon Lowe’s extremely high K% and relying upon hitting RHP fastballs is not a spot I want to be chasing. He had 39 HR a year ago in his first full season of playing time but it came with 167 strikeouts and a reduced overall AVG. I don’t hate Lowe the player, but I think it’s a down season compared to last years results.
Sleeper/Breakout Candidate
Bobby Dalbec – Boston Red Sox
Me and Bobby McGee as we call him will turn 27 this season in his third season in the Majors. A lineup that has JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Trevor Story doing a lot of damage in it will no doubt produce value elsehwere and Dalbec is my favorite breakout player in this division (which is honestly kind of lacking in the ‘breakout’ department for hitters)
Prospect You should know
Grayson Rodriguez – SP – Orioles
He is one of a few young Orioles SP prospects who have shown all the tools of being legit starters in the big leagues. There’s good power in this arm and so I am curious to see how he does when he gets the call. I still won’t like using rookie pitchers in DFS, but for seasonal and dynasty purposes, he is a must to consider.
FINAL STANDINGS
- Toronto
- New York
- Boston
- Tampa
- Baltimore