2022 MLB Draft Targets

I started this breakdown back in January with the intention of releasing it at the start of March when I first though the CBA would be signed.  So it’s coming out a week or so later, but the analysis remains the same.

I will go through each position and identify the key players at that position whom I expect to exceed expectations as well as some sleepers and young prospects to keep an eye out for down the line.  The next article in this series will delve more into the players who I am avoiding a great deal as I find it more important to identify who NOT to pick or go after than simply just ranking someone else ahead of them and using it as a cop out if they still do well.  If you have someone ranked 13th at first base, you cannot pat yourself on the back when they finish 5th.  Sorry, that’s just my personality.

So here we go, the 2022 MLB Draft Targets – Starting  Pitching Edition.

For the purposes of keeping things simple to translate, I am blending 5×5 and Points formats together in the analysis on players.  You’ll see some which might tend to lean more 5×5 and some tend to lean more points based.

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Starting Pitching

There are definitely a lot of pitchers who I can look at and say yes I want to target that player.  So I am going to look at the two favorites of mine who are in different portions of the draft and should be evaluated with potential upside relative to where they can be drafted.

Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins

This off-season Sandy has been thrown around by analysts as the next big thing more than a visiting NL team throws around bottles and dolla bills in South beach on a Saturday night in the middle of the season.  For great reason, Sandy has 3+ pitches, is in a pitchers ballpark and is one of very few pitchers to be coming off a 200+ IP, 33 start season a year ago.  But this isn’t a scenario where he wasn’t built to handle the work load before, as in 2019 Sandy tossed 197 IP in 32 starts.

He will be 26 for the majority of the season and delivers quality in all categories.  He should have a good shot to win 10+ games if starting 30+ again, will rack up 160+ strikeouts as a floor with 210+ potential and carries very respectable low 3 ERA and roughly 1.15 WHIP across those 200 innings.  These are conservative estimates too.

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Dylan Cease – Chicago White Sox

I do not want to let too much of the cat out of the bag here but I’ll just say Cease is someone I am going to be EXTREMELY high on this upcoming season.  He will be 26 all season and this will be his fourth season as a starter and his second true full season after logging 165 IP a year ago over 32 starts.

What you might not know about Cease is that he was once committed to Vanderbilt University, known for being the pitching powerhouse in the SEC.  He, however, was selected high enough in the draft by the Cubs that he passed up going to Vandy and went straight into the minor leagues before having to go through Tommy John Surgery early in his career.  Cease was the other player involved along with Eloy Jimenez in what should wind up being one of the more talked about horrific trades this year when the White Sox got them both for Jose Quintana.

I say that because Cease is primed to take the next step in 2022.  His xERA in 2021 of 3.65 to go along with a .383 xWOBACON and he dropped his BB% down below 10%.  All combined Cease saw his K% jump above 30% for the first time in three seasons, lowered his walk rate and hitters had a .210 xBA against him over a full year.  Going into his 4th big league season, second 30+ start season and pitching for the best team in the American League I see no reason why we aren’t considering Dylan Cease as a sneaky Cy Young candidate this year.

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Later round players I am bullish on

Steven Matz – St. Louis Cardinals

When looking late in the draft I often prefer to look for a SP with some experience who is going to pitch for a good team.  Matz is not a name that many people get excited when they see him.  He’s a heavy ground ball lefty who needs his sinker to be effective others RH batters will give him a hard time and he’ll be out on the bench before the 5th inning is over.

But what Matz does provide is a guy who is going to provide you with 150+ IP wand has potential to help out in the Wins category while pitching in a very weak division.

Noah Syndergaard – LA Angels

Can he stay healthy?  There’s a good number of big name arms who are coming back this season besides Thor such as Justin Verlander, Chris Sale and Mike Clevinger.  Thor however is going into a stadium where I have noted that he should benefit pitching in front of the rocks that caused a batters eye issue for players against Jared Weaver back in the day.  Weaver and Syndergaard are of similar builds and both throw pretty hard.  But all that aside, his talent is too good for where people have him ranked right now.  Buy!!

Casey Mize – Detroit Tigers

One of the highest pitching prospects in Baseball has had time to go through the season, learn the process of pitching every 5 days and will be working with a solid new catcher in Tucker Barnhardt.  Mize is probably a year away from reaching the top elite level, but that next step should be taken this year by him.