Overview

After an entertaining XFINITY race yesterday from Phoenix the Cup drivers take to the track in the desert as the West Coast swing continues. Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile flat dogleg asphalt oval considered by some as a short track but unlike typical short tracks there is hardly any banking at Phoenix. Richmond Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon) are the two most comparable tracks to Phoenix where track position is everything as far as dominator points goes. Let’s get into more of that in the strategy section.

Strategy

As mentioned in yesterday’s XFINITY article, the pole sitter at Phoenix is often the one that has the immediate advantage as far as dominator points go, especially since the track was repaved in 2018. The drivers will run 312 laps for 312 miles, over 100 more laps than the XFINITY drivers yesterday making the dominator points that much more plentiful. Since 2019 the polesitter has averaged nearly 90 laps led in Cup races. In five of the seven races since that aforementioned repave the polesitter has either led the most or second-most laps in the race. Finding two of the three to four dominators of the race will be crucial as far as tournament lineups go. We’ll still want some place differential drivers as usual, especially in cash game lineups as there were more than a few cars that had poor qualifying efforts for a number of reasons. So, what drivers are we targeting?

Most comparable tracks: Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Dominators

Ryan Blaney ($9,600), Starting on the pole

Blaney has the advantage from the pole here as mentioned above with the polesitter having a distinct advantage of late. Not only is Blaney’s track position advantages, his speed thus far this season and practice times to this point have both been fantastic. Blaney had the fourth-best lap average in practice and was running well last week before getting into a collision with former teammate Brad Keselowski and getting knocked out of the race. Blaney had been running in the top ten and led 10 laps early in that race. In the two Phoenix races last season Blaney finished 10th and fourth leading 33 laps in the latter; a race in which he started in the fourth position.

Denny Hamlin ($10,100), Starting 2nd

Thus far Hamlin has not had a good season, notably stating that he “had the best car but the worst driver” in last week’s race when he literally blew the car up. Rest assured after decent practice numbers and a great qualifying effort that Hamlin will be ready to make amends for his gaffe in last week’s race. Phoenix has been a good track for Hamlin with finishes of third, third, and fourth in his last three appearances at a track in which he has two career Cup victories. Hamlin has had some massive dominating performances including efforts in which he’s led 143, 193, and 190 laps.

Also Consider

William Byron ($9,400), Starting 3rd

Alex Bowman ($8,700), Starting 5th

Austin Cindric ($7,700) Starting 8th

Place Differential Targets

Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,800), Starting 2oth

Truex, the driver who won the first Phoenix race last year and nearly the second bout starts 20th on Sunday. Expect Truex to grab some fastest laps points as he makes his way through the field as one of the prime place differential candidates who has a solid chance at winning the race. Truex has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last nine trips to Phoenix.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,000), Starting 36th

The “Chalk-asaurus” of this race will most likely be Stenhouse who starts 36th after engine trouble causes the JTG Daugherty team to take a new engine. The issues came arise when Stenhouse posted a poor session in practice in which the driver realized that something wasn’t right. Like I mentioned Stenhouse will be popular so if you’re looking to be contrarian this might not be the play for you. However, at $7,000 with his place differential at hand, he’s a tough fade in cash games.

Chase Elliott ($10,700), Starting 19th

It seems to me that no one is talking about Elliott who is a contender week in and week out to win any race as a DFS play this week. It’s hard to believe that this will be Elliott’s 13th Cup series race at Phoenix and he’s won once, finished in the top five on five occasions, and top 10 eight times. The Hendrick driver has also been a lap leader finding his way to the front to lead 93 or more laps on four occasions giving Elliott upside on all fronts.

Todd Gilliland ($4,900), Starting 33rd

If looking for a “punt”, specifically in those lineups in which you want to try and nail three dominators in, Gilliland might be the guy for you starting 33rd at $4,900. Gilliland has finished 20th and 23rd in his last two races seeing his salary go down from $6,100 to $5,400, and finally to $4,900. Not quite a free square here but as close to one as you can get.

Also Consider

A.J. Allmendinger ($7,200), Starting 29th

Chris Buescher ($6,700), Starting 26th)

Bubba Wallace ($6,400), Starting 27th

Landon Cassill ($5,500), Starting 31st

GOOD LUCK!!