A very fine Happy Sunday in the Dongers Club to you and all those who celebrate this weekly tradition. Ten games on the Sunday Main slate today, which is just perfect before the TILT afternoon slate and then the TILT-TILT Showdown Slate.
I re-designed the optimizer before the season and of course did not get to implement the Showdown Version of it just yet, I plan to get that working before tonight’s Single Game/Showdown spot but if for some reason it’s delayed I apologize and it will be ready for sure by next Sunday night’s game.
WEATHER
All games play, here’s the most relevant info …
- Once again Windy and the only potential hitting boost is in Kauffman Stadium where the winds are 20+ MPH out to Left Field
- Busch and Wrigley both have some strong winds but I think they’re a little more cross wind to left than directly out to LF, but certainly viable spots there too.
Everything is chilly, offense should remain dormant due to that and hitters just not having their timing down yet.
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A quick early observation would say that almost every SP is doing well because offense is slow starting. Yes, but there are a few teams who are kind of validating the thought that they are just horrific offenses. Nationals, Athletics, Guardians specifically are just bad overall and probably will be bad in that order all season long which is making it pretty easy to just open up the slate and try and pick on them. Not referencing that specifically for today, but I’ve seen no indication that those three teams are going to be good offensively. I also believe Milwaukee is worse than everyone projects.
FREDDY PERALTA
What is it with Peralta and getting to play the Cubs early in the season every year to start his season off with some dominant outings? He once again gets to face Chicago in cold Wrigley and has as much of a chance at putting up a 30 on DK today as anyone (I don’t expect 30, but I said he has a chance)
ZACH EFLIN
One of the major elements to the Phillies starting pitching has been that Nola and Gibson have not walked anyone on Oakland and that has as much to do with the Athletics as it does the Phillies pitching. Eflin grades very strong against the A’s projected top of the lineup so a good start and a good second time through the order will land him near the top of our list today.
The Sunday Wild Card …
Every Sunday I always find there is a wild card SP who pops up out of nowhere as a very viable SP2. I gave some consideration to Pirates SP Bryse Wilson because he is much cleaner vs RHB than LHB and the cards strength lies on their RHB side, but it’s still too early to go down the Pirates SP rabbit hole. Similar scenario with Mariners, Marco Gonzales, but there’s just not any strikeout upside for him. Royals Kris Bubic looked very good in the Spring and faces a Guardians offense which is stuck in reverse overall, he almost made the cut but alas I am going with
Corey Kluber
Klubot combined with MLB players being allowed to use technology and pitching in Tampa could be the rebound story of the season. He went 8.1 innings over 2 Spring Starts with a strikeout per inning, draws the heavy swinging Orioles lineup and is in very pitcher friendly Tropicana Field on a Sunday afternoon. There’s a lot of solid options on this slate for pitching, but I see no reason in getting too cute. Attack the Birds.
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It’s setting up to be a nice Home Team Sunday …
Toronto Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Lourdes Gurriel, Matt Chapman
If Spencer Howard ever becomes a viable starting pitcher in this league I will eat my crow. Give me the Jays at home with the roof hopefully closed to tear him up.
Atlanta Braves
Eddie Rosario, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
There are 3 pitching prospects remaining in the Minors who are close and at one point will challenge my “DONT USE ROOKIE SP MAKING THEIR DEBUT” narrative. Greene isn’t on the level of them (GrayRod, Leiter, Gore) but he is definitely someone with a TON of arm talent and will be on our list at some point. That point is not today. Expect an Ambush from Eddie Rosario leading off this game and the day elements in Atlanta can hopefully propell a couple more homers out of the park.
KC Royals
Merrifield, Witt Jr, Perez, Lopez
Warmer weather and a wind boost in Kansas City helps a lot, so does Quantrill not being a strikeout pitcher so KC will put the ball in play early and often. If you want to get Nicky, Whit, Witt you can do a nice 9-1-2 stack for that ball in play runs stack which the Royals are mostly known for. Or you can ride the first homer of the season from Salvador Perez and hope for the long ball to suddenly show up for the Royals.
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CATCHERS
- Salvador Perez
- Mike Zunino
- JT Realmuto … So Schwarber, Hoskins, Segura and Castellanos have gotten their HR in so far this series … Who’s next?
FIRST BASE
Nobody pops off like Vlad Jr today. I get Pete Alonso could be chalky but if you cant fit in Vlad then this is where you just punt the position on DK.
- Vladdy G Jr.
- Ty France (DK)
- Spencer Torkelson
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Ty France (FD)
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Bobby Witt, Jr.
- Jose Ramirez
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
Stupid Phillies, should have started Didi today…
- Amed Rosario
- Wander Franco
- Kevin Newman
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Eddie Rosario
- Franmil Reyes
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Harper, Bryce
- Dylan Carlson
OUTFIELD – Value
- Marcell Ozuna
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- A-Rod’s Ex …. errrr …. Jennifer Lopez …. errr, J-Lo …. errrr, Josh Lowe (Rays)
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Finally, a full Dongers Club …
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Atlanta Braves – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Toront
- Amed Rosario – SS – Cleveland
- Ty France – 1B – Seattle
- Bobby Witt Jr – 3B – Kansas City
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Texas
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Atlanta
- BONUS ……………………………… Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
- Peralta and Kluber are the anchors today for me.
- Peralta & Eflin is the Primary build
- Peralta & Kluber secondary build
- Kluber & take your pick is the third build
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Jays, Braves, Rays, Cardinals
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Marcus Stroman paired with Peralta because despite Peralta having the strikeout advantage, I definitely see the Cubs stealing the game and sweeping Milwaukee.
- Game stack the wind in Kauffman with both sides.
- Fade Cardinals Bats
Favorite Bets
- Athletics/Phillies UNDER 9
- Nationals ML +122
- Cubs ML +107
- Home Team ML Parlay …. Phillies / Rays / Braves / Nats / Jays / Royals / Cubs
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