Hot diggity damn we have a slate which begins at 7PM and has a decent amount of games on it and has no Pirates on it either, which is just how we like it.
WEATHER
Dodgers at Twins – PPD risk here. They play a day game tomorrow as this is a short two game series, but they likely would try to wait it out for a little if they can. If it delays, we fade, if it starts on time, we play. Although it is cold so there’s really not a TON to like here except for oh my god, yes, that is Andrew Heaney on the mound for LAD and that won’t end well for him.
Royals at Cardinals – The suckitude of the Royals pitching staff has brought with it some winds blowing out heavily to LF
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There’s a crap ton of “not my guys” on this slate tonight. Eric Lauer, Yu Darvish, Chad Kuhl, Chris Archer, Andrew Heaney, Yusei Kikuchi, I say stick a fork in my eye….
ALEX COBB
A new year makes a new man? Well, Alex Cobb now with the Giants showed up to Spring Training throwing straight heat and struck out 9 batters over 7 1/3 IP while allowing just 1 ER. Big deal you say, it’s just Spring Training, to which I agree except his velocity suddenly went from 92-93 MPH to 97 MPH this spring.
Either this guy has found the secret sauce, is about to go on the IL for the season or will be busted for PED later this year. In two of those scenario’s, he’ll reproduce it well enough today in the large stadium against a weak offense. And he is the other SP in what should be a low scoring game against the likely chalk SP1 tonight…
DAKOTA HUDSON
Hudson draws the Royals who were seeing the fewest pitches per AB through the first three games of the season and that has historically been a trend with that offense. Hudson needs to avoid a mistake down in the zone to Salvador Perez and he can get through 5 IP with likely having the lead to qualify for a win as well. The upside is limited, but I trust he wont be negative either.
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LONGSHOT ARMS
JESUS LUZARDO & PATRICK SANDOVAL
Alright, so we found “my guys”, but there are some glaring trouble spots with both of them. Both get damage done with their change-ups and both opposing lineups can do damage against that pitch. Warm weather and wind blowing out with earlier start time in LA presents big risk here. It’s either gamestack these two or fade completely but I wanted to at least mention they have talent that other guys going today do not in my mind.
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The best among the “trash” …
- Darvish … No, he isn’t trash but is there logic in just taking the safe floor with him + Cobb? Yes, there is. For larger tournament plays though you go full leverage with Cobb and no Darvish.
- Martin Perez
- Luis Garcia
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Now comes the hilarious part where you say okay so with all those bad pitching shouldn’t we have 10 stacks written up? Eh, not so much….
NY YANKEES
Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
I have never believed in Kikuchi and I am not going to start in Yankee Stadium after the Yanks just had to deal with the nasty stuff from Alek Manoah. Logic says Donaldson (.541 xSLG) & Judge (.679 xSLG) should hit his profile but my gut says Rizzo has the key hits tonight for the Yanks.
CARDINALS
Pujols, Arenado, O’Neill
I half expect that if the Royals coaching staff was given Pedro Martinez, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson and Walter Johnson in their primes right now they would somehow manage to screw them up. I have lost all faith already in the pitching player development and even with the best of the young kids right now, Daniel Lynch, going for the Royals they’re not a team to avoid targeting.
TWINS – RAIN RISK
Correa, Sano, Ssanchez
They won’t be striking out AT ALL vs Heaney and the lineup here should hit LHP very well. Specifically Buxton, Correa, Sano and Sanchez.
ORIOLES
Mountcastle, Mancini, Hays
I expect Lauer to remain chalky tonight and it will be another week or two before people realize that the Brewers are not that good of a team and look back to this night and wonder why they weren’t on the Birds.
Yes, the LF wall is a dumpster but the doubles will rain in tonight for Mountcastle, Mancini and Hays and who know, maybe even Chris Owings does as well.
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CATCHERS
- Kyle Higashioka
- Salvador Perez
- Mitch Garver
FIRST BASE
- Anthony Rizzo
- Albert Pujols – $3200 value on DK
- Ryan Mountcastle
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve – Best one off on the slate tonight. Altuve vs MadBum in Arizona is not that bad of a spot to take a one off given how weak 2B is.
- DJ LeMahieu
- Cesar Hernandez
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman – Softer tossing LHP fits him just perfectly.
- Josh Donaldson
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Carlos Correa
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Not the best OF slate I have seen but you can sense the theme tonight. Boppers and Boppers. Up top we are not messing around with anyone who is gonna go 2-4 with a couple singles and RBI. We want that HR here today.
- Juan Soto
- Aaron Judge
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Adam Duvall
- Tyler ONeill
- Kyle Tucker
- Austin Hays
OUTFIELD – Value
- Trey Mancini
- Pavin Smith
- Connor Joe
- Brad Miller
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THE DONGERS CLUB
- Anthony Rizzo – 1B – New York Yankees – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Whiz Khalifa – SS – Yankees
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
- DJ LeMahieu – 2B – Yankees
- Brad Miller – OF – Rangers
- Trey Mancini – OF – Orioles
- BONUS ………………………. Juan Soto
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
- Alex Cobb in 2 of 3 Lineups, Darvish in the other if you don’t go 100% Cobb
- Yankees 3+ Stack in atleast 1 lineup
- Cardinals 3+ Stack in atleast 1 lineup
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Rangers
- Braves
- Cardinals
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Alex Cobb > Yu Darvish
Favorite Bets
- Orioles ML +144
- Yankees ML -125
- Astros team total over 5.5
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