Updates – 11:28 AM EST
- Trevor Story is in for Boston today, Xander is out. Swap Story in over Xander.
- I was too passive when talking about Aaron Nola, definitely have him in the top tier and expect him to be sub 10% on FanDuel where I am using him instead of Webb because of good value with the hitting.
- Go Pie-Rats, Ian Happ just as much a strong play as Suzuki from the Cubbies.
- KC/STL PPD
Good luck!
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We have DAY baseball and a BIG slate at that. If you want to call this the Early slate that is fine, if you want to call it the MAIN slate that is fine too. It’s the MAIN slate honestly but on the dashboard/tools it will show up as Early.
FanDuel actually has the bigger slate with 9 games but I cannot explain what they decided to do for the night slate later on tonight. The two extra games on FanDuel are …
- Houston at Arizona
- San Diego at San Francisco
These are both viable spots for pitching today and for FD arms consideration I would rank the four there ahead of just about everyone else on this slate.
WEATHER
Unfortunately our expectations for a fantastic early MLB DFS slate today are going to be hampered by weather.
CLE/CIN – There’s some weird storm going into Ohio. It’s not ideal for playing Baseball
KC/St. Louis – This has storms too and lots of humidity with it, but it could play if they just wait it out as I don’t think Zack Greinke has anything else planned for today. No desire for the game either way.
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I am going to cover the DK only arms first and then list the FanDuel guys below.
NATHAN EOVALDI
Big Nate checks in as number one on our list today as I projected him to go up to 85+ pitches today after throwing 76 in his first start vs the Yankees. The Tigers have four bats which project to have 25+ strikeout potential in Baddoo, Baez, Miggy and Victor Reyes, so that combined with Eovaldi overall consistency of 25+ K% and a big park on day with the winds blowing in has him #1. I would project 6 , 1 ER and 7 K from Eovaldi.
MAX SCHERZER
There are two Max(es) to consider between Scherzer and Fried and one is facing a bad lineup and the other is going to pitch well. The other is Scherzer here who is going to pitch well vs the Phillies in his second start as a Met. Obviously everyone here knows each other so yada-yada-yada, that’s great. I’m waiting patiently for Mr. I am homering on every pitch in Spring Bryce Harper to get his first Regular Season jack so that is a risk for sure but otherwise Scherzer has 7+ strikeout upside which is the floor that you just take and move on.
Who I am not using …
Yes, I am the Chairman of the Max Fried fan club. No, I do not like Max Fried today because we have big strikeout arms above him and I didn’t even mention my NL Cy Young pick in Aaron Nola either but Fried if he has a better game today will go 6 innings with 1 hit, 2 walks and 1 strikeout. I mean, he won’t suck per say, but he’s not going to match the other boys on Strikeouts….
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FanDuel Arm
- Logan Webb – He is very even w/ Eovaldi and Max but much cheaper than Max and probably lower owned than Eovaldi.
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This is a little unique slate to navigate through with weather impacting a couple premium offense games and some high end SP going. Do not be afraid to use a leverage team today.
CUBS / PIRATES
Vogelbach, Reynolds, Hayes (PIT) & Suzuki (CHC)
Seiya Suzuki is on a roll is he not? Two home runs yesterday and a torrid start to the big league season for the Korean import. Liking the Cubs and Pirates in April definitely feels like a rough way to start but Kyle Hendricks is bad away from Wrigley and I don’t trust the Pirates pitching staff here either. A nice 7-5 game is in store with the Pirates, yes, the Pirates, being my favorite stack on DraftKings.
DIAMONDBACKS (FD)
Marte, Kelly, Hummel
Framber Valdez’s out pitch vs this Arizona lineup today is going to be his very nasty breaking ball, but we are in a little altitude here and if that pitch isn’t breaking like it should then he can run into trouble. This is a nice leverage play on FanDuel.
INDIANS / REDS (Rain Concerns)
I definitely can see this game getting PPD but Cincinnati has a Looooong history of waiting games out as their stadium drains extremely well. I cannot remember a time when the Reds PPD a game after the start time as they are basically the OPPOSITE of the Nationals in that regard so we should know before this locks if they want to try and play.
Reason to like the Tribe … They’re getting a rookie SP making his debut and while the last top prospect (Hunter Greene) for the Reds was lights out and this one is a highly regarded one as well we still consider attacking them and the Tribe offense is hitting well. This is a Franmil Reyes game specifically.
Reason to like the Reds … Triston McKenzie still will have issues with walks and is not yet stretched out. I like India/Naquin here.
Given the weather risk if this game is delayed you want to be heavy in it or fade it entirely.
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CATCHERS
- Carson Kelly (FD as part of Zona stack)
- Willson Contreras
- Punt the damn position
FIRST BASE
- Daniel Vogelbach
- Matt Olson … Matt Olson in day games in 2021 hit .322, Matt Olson in night games in 2021 hit .236. A lot of that was driven by Oakland day/night splits overall but Josiah Gray is a nice spot for him too.
SECOND BASE
- Ian Happ
- Ketel Marte (FD)
- Jonathan India
THIRD BASE
- Ke’Bryan Hayes
- Bobby Witt Jr
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Trea Turner
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds
- Enrique Hernandez … Also known as Kike
- Tyler Naquin
- Adam Duvall
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nick Castellanos – Solo shot off the bullpen to blow the win for Max, oh you can see it coming a mile away….
- Seiya Suzuki
- Eddie Rosario
- Franmil Reyes
OUTFIELD – Value
- Darin Ruf – FD
- Cooper Hummel
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THE DONGERS CLUB
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates … Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
- Adam Duvall – OF – Braves
- Tyler Naquin – OF – Reds
- KeBryan Hayes – 3B – Pirates
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- Absolutely NOBODY – Catcher
- BONUS ……………………….. Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
I was thinking about this specific section yesterday, this should be more what my CORE mindset is for starting my initial lineups.
- Eovaldi & Scherzer are the anchors. The only pivot off them on DK would be considering Nola over Max because I trust Nola outside of his AB’s vs Lindor today. Not sure I trust the Mets to hold the win for Max either. But that’s the CORE on pitching, not messing around anywhere else.
- Lots of Pirates exposure, going up to as many four
- Shortstop is a pay up premium and contrarian position today. Really like Xander outside of the strong winds blowing in. E-Fraud vs his former team???? Cmon.
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Braves
- Astros (FD) – Do not love
- Cubs
- Dodgers
Chalk SP I would not use
- Hendricks
- Fried – Wont pitch horrid but wont be top arm on slate
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Pirates vs Hendricks
Favorite Bets
- Pirates ML +108
- Diamondbacks ML +134
- Dodgers/Twins UNDER 8.5
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