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DAILY-AMBUSH · April 15, 2022

The Dongers Club – April 15th

Happy Friday from The Dongers Club.  It’s a great day today as MacKenzie Gore makes his Major League Debut for the San Diego Padres and the entire league is recognizing my guy making his debut by wearing #42.  Oh, wait, that’s for Jackie Robinson…  Right…

About Mr. Gore.  We have a strict rule here in The Dongers Club which has worked out FAR more than it has busted for us and that is we don’t chase a dirt cheap SP making his debut when they are chalk.  Here are all teh limitations with the rookies.

  1. The ceiling is a hard cap because they have a shorter leash than ever in their ML debut.
  2. The risk that a pitcher pulls a Mitch Keller or Jackson Kowar and can’t find home plate, let alone the catchers glove is extremely high and they’ll go through many full counts, have lots of walks and drive their pitch count up even higher.
  3. Advanced scouting on a pitcher is always easier than advanced scouting on a hitter and in game good veteran hitters can pick up when a pitcher does not have a third pitch after one inning.
  4. They get overhyped by “industry analysts” who want to be cool and think they did research overnight on a cheap SP to “pay up for all the bats”, which is not how you should play MLB DFS…

All that said, MacKenzie Gore has been the pitcher which I have hyped and touted the most.  He has gone through struggles in 2020/2021 with injuries and just being off with his command and timing, but his Fall work last year and Spring this year was back to the elite level which had him as the #1 pitching prospect in Baseball drawing comparisons to Clayton Kershaw.

Long, winding road makes it a 'little sweeter' as MacKenzie Gore prepares for MLB debut - The San Diego Union-Tribune

He’s a lefty who has a big leg kick and while the Kershaw comp is one I buy he really does his damage with his hard breaking Curve-Ball.  If he utilizes his Change or Slider more then he will dominate.

I expect Gore to have 1-2 innings tonight where he dazzles and one inning for sure where he gives up 2 hits, 2 walks and 1-2 runs scored as he gets into trouble, most likely the third inning.  I have waited for this day for a few years, so that’s why I gave the full breakdown in the intro unlike other rookie pitchers which we don’t need to waste too much space on.

I believe in Gore long term and will have him on a secondary lineup tonight, but I do not expect him to come out and throw up a 20-30 point game because that’s not what most rookies do.

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WEATHER

  • Roof will be closed in Toronto as the Jays welcome in the Athletics (due to precip)
  • Roof should be closed in Milwaukee between the Cards and Brewers (due to temp)
  • I assume roof close din Seattle between the Astros and Mariners (due to temp)
  • Below 60 degrees in Chicago (TB-CWS), Cleveland (SF-CLE)
  • TBD on Angels/Rangers game in Arlington, good chance roof is open and helps hitting (Plus Stadium in it’s third year = overs theory is doing well so far, ride it…)

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The theme tonight is a severe lack in trust on pitchers who will be going deep into games, so there’s a lot of potential out there for 3-4 innings of quality work from some guys and then they just come out because that’s all you’ll get (i.e., Gonsolin, Stripling)…

DYLAN CEASE

We are going to be using Dylan Cease a ton this year if I am correct and this is start #2, so we’re batting a 1.000 with that plan already.  His last start was vs Detroit, whom he has owned, and some will see Tampa and think they are better than Detroit — which they really arent.  Outside of Wander Franco this lineup has a lot of strikeouts in it and projects with a very low .236 xBAVG and high 26% strikeout rate against Cease.  He is worth the 10k on DraftKings too as he was more than stretched out in Spring and his first start.

Stretching GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

BRAD KELLER

Keller is better against LHB and I expect the Tigers to give him 6 or more of them tonight.  His slider is the key pitch which gets a 37% strikeout rate vs LHB and helps to keep the ball down when it gets weak contact.  With the wind blowing in at Kauffman tonight fairly well I would back either SP in this game, but Keller is coming off 6 IP and 69 pitches his last start, so if we can get that efficiency again we’re golden.  Skubal has more K upside but I like Royals bats to do some damage today.  So even though Keller isn’t ‘Mexican’, some people think he looks like it..

A Mexican GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

CARLOS RODON

Rodon is option 3 to pivot off Cease or Pair with Cease.  I don’t like the chances he gets the same strikeouts or length that Cease gets, plus Cleveland knows him well from his AL Central days which could result in a shorter outing today.

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Sleeper Pitcher

GERMAN MARQUEZ

We’ll see closer to lock what Marquez’ ownership looks like but it could be pretty low given that he is in Coors Field.  He pitches just fine there normally in night games and this game should be a battle of the ground ball guys as him and Stroman probably make this game going under a definitive bet today.  Rockies win and so we’re gonna back Marquez on DK.

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Nobody is scoring 10 runs tonight.  The model jumps all over the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres hitting today but I would opt more for riding a 3-2-2-1 or 2-2-2-2 type build today as it feels like a strong one off slate.

GIANTS

Yaz, Belt, Crawford, Joc

Cold in Cleveland but we still have Lefties in Cleveland (“LiC”)tm with a strong Lefty based lineup against Zach Plesac.  Side note, there are a ton of Zach’s pitching today.

DODGERS

Freeman, Muncy, Lux

LA is a FanDuel Stack team and should be whenever we are chasing the lottery play of 3 homers from this lineup.  I see the Mookie-Trea play being when we want the line moving and the Muncy-Freeman combination when we expect the long ball to be in play.  Vladimir Gutierrez is a long ball target with the lefties.

ANGELS

Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, Marsh

Ohtani is homering, this much I believe in for certain after he finished last night with a roped double.  Good chance the Angels jump out early again with Ohtani, Walsh and a healthy and too cheap Anthony Rendon doing the damage.  For a full stack go with Brandon Marsh.

ASTROS

Gurriel, Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve

Very much hope that Seattle plays in a controlled dome closed environment today.  Houston is playing their third straight road series but it’s all been in the Pacific Time Zone and this is a stadium they have hit well in previously.

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CATCHERS

  1. Robinson Chrinos
  2. Kyle Highashioka
  3. Yasmani Grandal
  4. Salvador Perez

FIRST BASE

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Brandon Belt
  3. Yuli Gurriel

SECOND BASE

  1. Gavin Lux
  2. DJ LeMahieu
  3. Andy Ibanez

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado …

His birthday is tomorrow and he destroys Miller Park – but he is homering today in celebration of that and for those who think he will do a birthday narrative, here you go…

  • Splits on April 15th – Hitting .381 with 8 hits, 3 home runs, 6 RBIs and 5 runs scored in 5 games
  • Splits on April 16th – His birthday … Hitting .238 with 5 hits, a homer, 4 RBIs and 2 runs scored in 5 games

It’s science….

There are other viable 3B tonight as well, Josh Donaldson, Matt Chapman being the best.

SHORTSTOP

Best position to punt tonight.

  1. Dansby Swanson
  2. Marcus Semien
  3. Bobby Witt Jr – The value here remains off the charts.  Young vs Young = Hitter wins.
  4. Chris Owings …I would much rather hit the Owings anytime HR prop than play him in DFS, so consider this a bet not a DFS recommendation.

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Shohei Ohtani
  2. Aaron Judge
  3. Kris Bryant
  4. Joc Pederson … Not a fan of the Cold weather but maybe he gets a LiC tonight to get things going.

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Trent Grisham
  2. Yordan Alvarez
  3. Marcell Ozuna
  4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Stephen Piscotty
  2. Cody Bellinger
  3. Tyler Naquin

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THE DONGERS CLUB

  1. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
  2. Robinson Chirinos – C – Orioles
  3. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers
  4. Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels
  5. Joc Pederson – OF – Giants
  6. Dansby Swanson – SS – Braves
  7. Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
  8. Stephen Piscotty – OF – Athletics
  9. BONUS ……………………. Brandon Belt – 1B – Giants

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Three Entry Max Starting Points …

  • Pitching Focused Breakdown
    • Cease + Marquez
    • Cease + Keller
    • Rodon + Gore (Throwing a dart on it)
  • Hitting Focused Breakdown
    • At least one build with Swanson/Ozuna or 3+ Braves
    • One build with Dodgers
    • One build with the Dongers Club hitters

Expected Chalk Offense(s)

  • Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels

Chalk SP or Teams I would not use

  • Coors Field
  • Limit exposure to Carlos Rodon

Best Leverage / Pivots

  • Braves vs Gore Chalk in at least one build.

Favorite Bets

  • Rockies ML
  • KC Royals ML
  • Cardinals ML
  • Angels/Rangers OVER 10
  • Yanks/Orioles UNDER 9
  • Parlay:  Rockies/Royals/Cardinals

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