With a couple PPD games yesterday there are a couple double-headers today and on the MAIN slate DraftKings has included G2 of the Diamondbacks-Nationals double header while FanDuel has skipped it for their main slate.
This is a HORRIFIC hitting slate tonight. There is just no way around it and if there are a bunch of 12-7 games then come back tomorrow and I’ll gladly eat my crow on that one but nobody should sugar coat anything for you as this is one of the most boring slates we will have all season long.
WEATHER
Better than yesterday with no PPD risk spots today at least but it’s just cold, cross windy and blech.
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORBIN BURNES
A year ago there were times when we could look at the Pirates offense and argue that we don’t want to pick on them given that they are not one of the worst strikeout teams in the league. That was last year and this is also Corbin Burnes.
JOE MUSGROVE
At some point in this year there will be a Joe Musgrove home start where he burns people for one game and then goes back to his usual dominance in PETCO Park. That start should not be tonight. Despite having Joey Votto on their team the Reds project as a bottom 5 offense in the weighted top of the order rankings on the model and we know Musgrove is elite at home (2.92 ERA with 1.27 K/IP a year ago)
JON GRAY
My contrarian arm tonight is up on SafeCo (now T-Mobile) Park. A park which in recent years has shifted heavily towards the pitching and a Mariners lineup with limited SLG pop. Gray had a 28.9% CSW in his first start facing 16 batters vs a great Blue Jays lineup, and should be extended further today vs a younger and more favorable Mariners lineup. Expect a pitchers duel with Gray coming out above Robbie Ray.
[spacer height=”20px”]
Sleeper options to pitch well today – but not deliver enough in DFS – include …
Carlos Hernandez (KC)
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR)
Tyler Gilbert (ARI)
[spacer height=”20px”]
I really don’t like any offenses tonight and see this being another slate like last Friday where you are best off going with a 2-2-2-1-1 or 3-1-1-1-1-1 type build.
There is some logic tonight to also pairing Burnes + Musgrove and a 4 or 5 man anchor stack and banking on that one stack to give you a HR and some extra points if they score between 5 and 7 runs. This isn’t a slate where I project someone coming out with two stacks paired together that wind up producing 5 or 6 HR combined. Even though I’m sure that’s what 95% of the industry is going to tell you to do.
That’s not what I see, there for that’s not what I do. Monkey dont see. Monkey dont do.
And sadly, the options for that ONE team are limited to Coors and Coors Field only today.
ORIOLES
Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
Athletics SP Cole Irvin is near 40% on his fastball with a bad change-up and a bad Sinker as complimentary pitches. In fact, he gives up hard contact to RHH throughout his entire career and a bad lefty vs the Orioles usually means they can have a moderate day. Out of 11 games I never thought I would be going to Oakland Coliseum for a night game to mention the Orioles as the one outlier team, but here we are.
PHILLIES
Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
I would be under-exposed to the Phillies compared to the field tonight as most will go with 4 or 5 of them and these two are the ones I cannot get off of, but the only ones I feel I really must have.
ASTROS
Bregman, Gurriel, Siri, McCormick
Altuve is possibly going to sit tonight and hopefully that keeps people off Houston in one of the few good hitting environments. Sandoval is not terrible but the two lefties on Houston are both VERY good vs LHP and so I expect very few strikeouts and some long hard innings for Sandoval tonight — making Houston a team that can put up some crooked spots.
[spacer height=”20px”]
CATCHERS
- Mitch Garver
- Will Smith
- Austin Nola
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Kolten Wong
- Nicky Lopez
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Luis Arraez
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story – Batting 2nd and is the only Boston batter I actually would consider vs Kikuchi — as wild as that might sound.
- Trea Turner
- Marcus Semien
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Trey Mancini
- George Springer
- Nick Castellanos
- Mike Trout
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jo Adell
- Kyle Tucker
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Chas McCormick
- Austin Hays
- Adolis Garcia
[spacer height=”20px”]
THE DONGERS CLUB
While you may have lost the bet on which team features the first repeat Chairman, you most certainly won the bet of which team has a Chairman who ruins the Chairman streak. Damn Pirates!
Tonight is another low HR projection night.
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- George Springer – OF – Jays
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- Trey Mancini – OF – Orioles
- Trevah Story – SS – Red Sox
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORE PLAYS
Burnes & Musgrove will be the chalky combination and I honestly would ride it tonight, but for a third lineup there’s lots of value in looking at secondary SP options.
Jon Gray is my favorite sleeper (no blister issues) off Musgrove and I’m always a Buehler guy of course but this isn’t necessarily the best spot for him – although his ownership should once again be criminally low.
- Hoskins, Springer, Mancini favorite one off bats
- Orioles, Phillies, Astros favorite 4-5 man stacks
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Phillies, Brewers, Red Sox
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
- Dodgers, Orioles
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Jon Gray off Joe Musgrove
- Fading Coors Bats
Favorite Bets
Under? Can I take the alt-line under in all games? Seriously though …
- Jays / Red Sox UNDER 9
- Rays / Cubs UNDER 8
- Texas Rangers ML
[spacer height=”20px”]