Five games for our mid week MLB DFS itch and we’re going to enjoy this slate my friends as all five games will play without issue and the pitching options force us some tough decisions.
There is a Double Header today and we only have to deal with 1 of the games for DFS purposes as the White Sox (Keuchel) will play two against the Tribe (Beiber). Those are the projected SP that I see for the early game.
WEATHER
No issues as the roof should be closed in Milwaukee, with wind blowing out in L.A. and Cleveland but not insanely bad in either spot, while it’s 67 and sunny San Diego, of course.
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This is another slate where one can justify just going up top and shooting for a 50 point combination between the top two guys.
SHANE BIEBER
I am probably less of a Bieber guy than most, but I love that he is at home against a lineup that doesn’t have a ton of lefty power and has also gone a couple days without hitting as these teams missed both Monday and Tuesday. Not to mention the Chi-Sox had scored 3 or fewer runs in the last 4 games before the rainouts and Bieber should get through 7 innings today with 10-12 slate breaking strikeout upside.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
If you pivot off a pitcher, it would be Woodruff, but if you do that you best be riding the Pirates bats and I just would not do that. I believe this game will go under with both Woodruff and Keller pitching well, although maybe not dominant. I project Woodruff to pitch 6+ with 5+ strikeouts and he should Win.
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MACKENZIE GORE
Back to my guy making his second start, this is a big drop down from the confidence in the top two arms but if you are struggling with value from hitters today then Gore is the Dongers Club fan-boy favorite pick here unless you want to do a Keller+Woodruff game-stack in the Brewers game or Keuchel with Bieber.
Specifically for Gore, he was very solid with his command in the Spring and also in his ML-Debut last Friday night. As long as he keeps that up he will deliver solid results even with the high probability that he gives up a HR today to Brandon Drury, Kyle Farmer or Nick Senzel.
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BRAVES vs DODGERS
We get the secret sauce of a day game in Dodger Stadium and I think that even on a 5 game slate this spot is low owned. We love the day games in L.A. due to the extra carry that the ball gets with the weather and the Dodgers are historically one of the best day game teams, but it’s the Braves side that has all the ‘data’ to back them up & the Dodgers side which has my gut/instincts riding them. I want 4-5 hitters in this game, and with paying up for pitching being a safe route I will want to be smart on the value here.
Thanks to DraftKings, they have kept the Braves free, and here are my top 3 from each side ($ factored in)
Braves: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Alex Dickerson
Dodgers: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
PADRES
I mentioned above there is likely a HR or two from the Reds side, but the better ‘stack’ has to be the team with the white-hot Manny Machado on it. He’s locked in so much and Vlad Gutierrez is weaker vs LHP that the combination of Machado & Cronenworth today will serve you like a Legal Defense team specializing in providing 30 DK fantasy points combined.
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CATCHERS
There are a good number of decent catchers projected in lineups today and so they’re all kind of pricey. Grandal gives you LiC but vs Bieber being locked in I am not going there and if Austin Nola hits 2nd he is our favorite choice.
- Austin Nola
- Elias Diaz
- Omar Narvaez – a little salary relief.
FIRST BASE
Welcome to my hardest decision today as Mr. Hump Day Eric Hosmer has a good match-up but do we think Freeman doesn’t get another HR against a SP he should be comfortable with?
Oh and Matt Olson has hit all his HR in day games (at the end of series) so far this season. So yeah, tough calls here and basically fill it in last where you take the cheapest option.
- Freddie Freeman
- Eric Hosmer
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Kyle Farmer … Great value
- Trea Turner
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
OF is deep with value, pay up in the infield and spend down in the OF on your primary/main/SE lineup.
- Cody Bellinger
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Castellanos
- Trent Grisham
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Dickerson / Eddie Rosario / Adam Duvall
- Cody Bellinger
- Brandon Drury
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THE DONGERS CLUB
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Alex Dickerson – OF – Braves
- Jake Cronenworth – 2B – Padres
- Kyle Farmer – SS – Reds
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
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CORE PLAYS
I am all over that Phillies vs Dodgers game, with limited exposure to the Brewers-Phillies-Rockies likely chalk hitting options today.
Primary Build is around Bieber/Woody, value OF.
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
Phils, Brewers, Padres
Braves (because they are so damn cheap)
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Dodgers
Best Leverage / Pivots
Tony Gonsolin against the dirt cheap Braves on DK
Mitch Keller as SP2 vs a Brewers lineup which is very jeckyl and hyde.
Favorite Bets
Pirates/Brewers UNDER 8
Braves/Dodgers OVER 8.5
White Sox/Tribe UNDER 8
Guardians + Dodgers ML Parlay
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