I really used to hate Thursday’s but I’ll be honest, they are growing on me and when the bulk of the games are all in the afternoon I kind of like them even more as we have one Main slate today and this is the only article for this fine Thursday, April 21st. Joc Pederson’s birthday.
Arizona at Washington – This game is only on DK, otherwise we have site synchronicity…
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WEATHER
All games will play without PPD risk and are slightly warmer finally but just comfortable — not hot.
- BAL @ OAK: Chilly and light drizzle chances
- ARI @ WAS: Wind blowing out to dead center
- TOR @ BOS: 14+ MPH wind out to left
- CWS @ CLE: 15+ MPH wind out to RIGHT!!!
- NYY @ DET: 16+ MPH WIND out to LEFT CENTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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It’s kind of a weak slate on ‘easy’ pitching options today and Day games can do that often times.
DYLAN CEASE
DYLAN CEASEAfter being swept in their double header yesterday, the White Sox will show up today and put a beat down on Cleveland. We’re riding the AL Cy Young all season long, or at least through the first couple of months while he is in terrific form.
Cleveland is not striking out much and isn’t a disaster offense like everyone thought but Cease will act like a true ace and shut things down today giving the White Sox an easy win. Expect them to be much more focused defensively as well.
JOE RYAN vs ZACK GREINKE
So I was watching Ryan’s last start which was in Boston and Dennis Eckersley on NESN commented how Joe Ryan’s mannerisms were very much like Zack Greinke and then I just couldn’t un-see this perfect observation by Eck. This has nothing to do with DFS other than — yep, he is facing ole Greinke today so I wanted to highlight this as it gives me a great reason to justify watching these miserable offenses today.
Ryan is the far better DFS play than Greinke because Law of Averages on the Twins bats has them putting up 3 runs in the first inning and Ryan is much more likely to get whiffs and has a 36% K rate against the Royals RHB today. Is a SP game stack in order? Probably not, but you could do much worse if you wanted to just full stack some hitting spots.
Also one other note here. The Royals finally moved Bobby Witt down in the order, which might not pay off immediately today but should soon. Keep an eye on his AB today.
PAUL BLACKBURN
I can honestly see Blackburn going 6 innings today without giving up a ton of damage. No ballpark had a bigger jump from night games to day games a year ago than Oakland, but a lot of that influenced by the Athletics better lineup a season ago as well as the fact that this park is so dead at night time that it’s naturally going to have a jump in day games. It’s not warm out in Oakland and this is a get away road game for the Orioles before they head down to warmer L.A.
Blackburn could run into issues with Mancini or Mountcastle, two guys who hit sinkers well, but the Orioles lack of being able to string together long innings is a big plus for him. He’ll need Ryan or Cease to blow up though for him to be able to finish top 3 today.
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Today is a fine day to stack up….
NY YANKEES
Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Joey Gallo
Ahh, the Comerica Wind theory! This nice big park needs a wind boost for it to become a HR park and the easiest path besides a direct pull for lefties down the right field line is the wind tunnel out to left center field. I have named this spot the Soler Panel because Jorge Soler destroyed it in his AL Central days and today it might get re-named to the Judgement zone.
New York will be facing a former Yankee pitcher and not just any former Yankee pitcher. Michael fucking Pineda himself, who is making his season debut with this wind and against his former team. Hopefully we get Hicks leading off with Judge/Rizzo to follow.
WHITE SOX
Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Leury Garcia
Tim Anderson was so bad in the field yesterday that he should make up for it with a first pitch homer today if he is feeling better. The rest of the CWS lineup should not strike out at all vs Plesac which leads to lots of doubles and a Yasmani LiC bomb as well.
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Bad teams vs bad Pitching?
Diamondbacks and Nationals if you are into that sort of thing.
CATCHERS
- Yasmani Grandal
- Carson Kelly
- Sean Murphy
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Anthony Rizzo
- Miguel Cabrera … 1 hit shy of 3,000.
SECOND BASE
There won’t be another slate this season where 2B is this note worthy.
After taking a pitch right on the side of the helmet and staying in last night, Trevor Story is now leading off for Boston. He probably won’t be that highly owned given that they’re facing Kevin Gausman, but it’s an interesting move to try and jumpstart an offense which is missing JD Martinez today.
- Jonathan Schoop
- Leury Garcia … This is somsone ALSO in a great lineup spot split between Anderson/Robert & Abreu/Grandal/Eloy.
- Trevor Story
- Ketel Marte – One of the highest individual matchup advantages today is Marte vs Rodgers — however he is ice cold to start the season.
THIRD BASE
- Sheldon Neuse
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
- Tim Anderson … Gonna cost you a pretty penny and will drop a 20+ today on DK.
- Marwin Gonzalez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Aaron Judge
- Luis Robert
- Aaron Hicks
- Joc Pederson – Birthday Narrative
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Eloy Jimenez
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Adam Haseley … Batting 9th but 2k LiC
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Max Kepler
- Brandon Nimmo
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- Tim Anderson – SS – White Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jonathan Schoop – 2B – Tigers
- Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
- Joc Pederson – OF – Giants
- Carson Kelly – C – Diamondbacks
- Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
- Aaron Hicks – OF – Yankees
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
- BONUS ……………………………. Ketel Marte – 2B – Diamondbacks
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CORE PLAYS
White Sox and Yankees hitters, must have a total of 5+ of these guys today and unless you are paying down for SP2 then you’ll wind up needing 2 out of Aaron Hicks, Leury Garcia, Marwin Gonzalez or Adam HaseLiC.
If you are paying down on SP2 on DraftKings then your choices are Greinke (5 2/3 IP, no win, 3 K, bleh), Houck (High K upside) and the disasters of Zach Davies and Tyler Wells which…. Just, no.
- Favorite SP Combo: Cease & Ryan
- Second Favorite: Cease & Greinke
- Third Favorite: Cease or Blackburn & Houck
Expected Chalk
This is nothing more than what I project the ownership will go on, these are not recommendations and are just informational only…
SP: Jordan Montgomery, Dylan Cease
Top Stacks: Nationals, Yankees
Second Tier Stacks: Diamondbacks, White Sox
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Giants, Tigers
Best Leverage / Pivots
Tigers against Jordan Montgomery
Giants against Carlos Carrasco
Favorite Bets
White Sox ML
Athletics ML
Twins ML
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