The MLB has decided to have all their games in the afternoon today, likely avoiding the big NFL Draft event tonight and that is just fine with me because Thursday’s should be about day games.
Unfortunately, we do not have Site Synchronicity as DraftKings is the one who left off the Boston-Toronto game.
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WEATHER
It is absolutely miserable. Not rain or terrible winds but it’s just cold and it really just adds to the damper on the lack of offense right now.
But all games play.
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ZACK WHEELER
There are a good number of pitching options today and none of them stands out to me more than Wheeler. Do you remember this past Sunday when Gerrit Cole had his best start of the season off his worst start of the season (yes, I know its been a short season thus far).
Well, that is what we have here. Wheeler on a Thursday afternoon home game vs a get-away spot for Colorado and cool temps, wind blowing in and a potential 10 strikeout spot. Next question.
FREDDY PERALTA
Yo. So like, what are we doing here? This is a great slate in terms of the number of games, but with the dead ball and the Pirates as the opponent we shouldn’t be left with a scenario that induces an 80% owned SP1 on DraftKings. Heck, Peralta should be 40%+ on FanDuel as well.
He is just dirt cheap and I get that this season he hasn’t had that massive game yet but he also hasn’t been pitching terrible either outside of the Cardinals getting to him early in his second start. A 90 pitch day from Peralta with the Pirates on tap should result in 7+ strikeouts.
TREVOR ROGERS
Based on the price and the upside of the two guys above I see no reason to really use a third option but I am a man of routine and I want to go on record for our third best option today.
Look for another low scoring affair between the Marlins & Nats in another bad weather spot (theme) with dead balls and quiet offenses.
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Who else might pitch well today? Honestly, everyone pitches well these days, but lets highlight a couple…
- Michael Kopech
- Patrick Corbin – This isn’t a name you expected to see here today, but this will be a good start for Corbin, at least by Corbin’s standards.
Who do I not want to touch with a 10 foot pole?
- Justin Verlander
- Nick Martinez
- Jameson Taillon
- Jalen Beeks – I don’t care if he is “cheap” and allows you to “pay up for bats”. That is a stupid phrase and shows ignorance because guess who else is cheap? Zack Wheeler and Freddy Peralta. Both of whom are facing worse offenses and will pitch longer and better. So move on now.
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The one thing you can try to do with the new dead ball era we are in is look at the tiny stadiums and try to load up on those if you are looking to run out some deep stacks.
Today’s spots would include Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium in NY. No spot has amazing weather beyond the Astros/Rangers game in Arlington or the Mariners/Rays game inside Tampa’s largest Costco Warehouse.
PADRES vs REDS
Naquin, Pham, Votto – CIN
A bad offense yes but we are looking at picking on Nick Martinez in a small park.
Machado – SD
The Padres have been hammering Reds pitching and have hit a TON of home runs against them dating back to last season. But the better side to look at might be the Reds side today. They’re showing some signs of life offensively and Tommy Pham looks REALLY pissed off every AB vs his former team right now.
ORIOLES vs YANKEES
Mullins, Santander, Mancini/Mountcastle
Yankee stadium is playing extremely tiny — which it is — and with a big strong wind gust out to RF the Orioles will get a HR from Cedric Mullins and maybe that HR we missed last night from Mancini or Mountcastle.
Judge, LeMahieu
Today’s roulette wheel on the Yankee hitters to poke 340-ft homers lands on DJ and Judge leading things off.
BREWERS
Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe
Milwaukee should absolutely take Jose Quintana out back and smack him around, but dead balls of course. Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe would be the main targets.
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CATCHER
- Kyle Higashioka
- Jorge Alfarro
- Martin Maldanado
FIRST BASE
- Joey Votto
- Miguel Sano
- Keston Hiura
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- DJ LeMahieu
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Colin Moran
- Rafael Devers – FanDuel
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Tim Anderson
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Trent Grisham
- Cedric Mullins
- Aaron Judge
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Randy Arozarena
- Hunter Renfroe
- Andrew Vaughn
OUTFIELD – Value
- Julio Rodriguez
- Andrew McCutchen
- Tyler Naquin
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- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- DJ LeMahieu – 2B – Yankees
- Tim Anderson – SS – White Sox
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Miguel Sano – 1B – Twins
- Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
- Trent Grisham – OF – Padres
- Kyle Higashioka – C – Yankees
- BONUS ……………. Colin Moran – 3B – Reds
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Core Plays
- Wheeler and Peralta
- Manny Machado
- Cedric Mullins
- Jonathan India
Expected Chalk
- Yankes
- Astros
- Marlins
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
- Rays
- Orioles
- Reds
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Reds
Favorite Bets
- Brewers + Phillies + White Sox ML Parlay
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