Despite a quiet day overall, that was fun was it not? Do not take any Opening Day’s for granted and I certainly enjoyed the day. Now we get a split slate today as teams continue to have their Opening Day games so there are 5 early and then 5 late between the split slates on both FD and DK.
This article obviously covers the early one and given that they are only 5 games, it’s a little more direct and to the point.
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WEATHER
All five games early should play and once again we have temps in the 40’s/50’s with some windy conditions. My assumption is that all games will play.
Medium Risk …
- Brewers at Cubs – Upper 30’s, Wind blowing in and some light rain. I would guess they play through it without issue.
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With only five games we are kind of backed into paying for these pitchers today, but they won’t break the bank too much on either site.
AARON NOLA
The Oakland Athletics have a lineup, that is for certain. Boy is it quite the change though from what they were rolling out at times last year with Olson, Chapman, Marte and Laureano. Three of those guys have been shipped off and the other is suspended. So now you get the mighty Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Jed F’n Lowrie and potentially double-catchers hitting back to back in the lineup. Is it the worst lineup in the league? Maybe not quite and yes this is technically a positive park shift for them, but Nola was one guy who was getting some decent work in during the Spring and his sinker is pretty heavy reverse splits which will do well vs this lineup. My floor expectations for Nola today will be 5+ IP, 5 strikeouts and < 2 ER allowed, which we will gladly take with the choices today.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
Let’s get a couple thoughts out of the way real quick here. Yes, I said the Cubs will finish third and wow the Brewers offense is potentially worse than I expected. What does that have to do with Woodruff you ask though? Well, despite those two factors, I don’t see the Cubs winning a ton of back to back games all season and certainly shouldn’t hit the ball around the park vs Woodruff with the wind blowing in and sub 40 degree temps. If this game is clear as I expect weather wise to play then it’s really hard to dislike Woodruff.
JOHN MEANS
I was going to list Gerrit Cole here and I am actually okay with him as well. But we want that sleeper option as a third pitcher, and in April it should definitely be an underdog. The Rays lineup can still be picked on with LHP despite some changes in it and Means in a favorable park for Pitching is worth the second lineup usage today.
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PHILLIES
Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins
A somewhat new look Phillies lineup will take center stage and if you don’t know Bryce Harper’s Opening Day history it’s pretty darned good in terms of the long ball. That said, he was swinging at EVERYTHING in Spring taking no walks so I would think he’ll go 1-5 with 3 strikeouts today or 1-1 with 3 walks, but that 1 will be a HR. Schwarber and Hoskins are the other top Phillies on my radar.
TIGERS
Baddoo, Baez, Meadows, Barnhardt
I really like the Tigers as your contrarian YOLO stack today. Giolito is the weakest of the ‘Aces’ in my book going today and this new look lineup is much deeper than they are being given credit for. You have primed prospect Spencer Torkelson down at 8, new comers Meadows and Baez in the heart of the order and of course Mr. April Akil Baddoo leading things off. Tigers are winning and very sneaky today.
WHITE SOX
Abreu, Robert, Pollock
Traditionally this lineup has hammered LHP. I wouldn’t think they do that out of the gate with cooler temps in big Comerica and I am very optimistic that Tucker Barnhardt helps the Tigers pitching staff today — but Eduardo Rodriguez? No, I don’t think he tames the Chi Sox cleanly.
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CATCHERS
- Yasmani Grandal
- Tucker Barnhardt
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Rhys Hoskins
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Mike Brosseau
THIRD BASE
- Josh Donaldson
- Yandy Diaz
SHORTSTOP
Here’s something to remember all DFS season long. If Shortstop looks fairly thin and Wander Franco is on the slate just take Wander Franco for the sure thing points. I would use Baez only in a Tigers stack
- Wander Franco
- Javy Baez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Harper, Bryce
- Luis Robert
- Kyle Schwarber
- AJ Pollock
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Hunter Renfroe
- Nick Castellanos
- Ryan Mountcastle
OUTFIELD – Value
- Akil Baddoo
- Josh Lowe
- Tony Kemp
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With just five games and this early in the season we are limiting the Dongers Club to temper your HR expectations back to reality…
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Wander Franco – SS – Rays
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Yankees
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
- #1: Nola + Tigers
- #2: Nola/Means + Phillies
- #3: Woody + Phillies
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Phillies
- Rays
- Yankees
Best Leverage / Pivots
This time of year you want to have a 4 or 5 man stack to just put all your chips in one basket with offenses being limited and with only 5 games we have fewer spots that we need to fail in order to be on that sub 10% team. That team we are riding today is …
- The Detroit Tigers … Enjoy your Mom’s Spaghetti…
Favorite Bets
- Detroit Tigers +115
- Baltimore Orioles +156
- Boston Red Sox +145
- Red Sox / Yankees UNDER 8.5
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