We actually do have site synchronicity today (which means both DraftKings and FanDuel have the same configuration on slate sizes), but we do not have consistency with the naming convention, and certainly not in contest selection.
So for Early this means 1:00 PM slate with five games on it and there’s absolutely NOTHING to play on FanDuel’s (Very Early) version of this slate, so we’re 100% focused on DraftKings for this article today.
The Main slate tonight should be a normal balance between the two sites.
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WEATHER
It’s chilly everywhere except for Tampa of course which is inside a COSTCO warehouse and it’s extremely cold in Detroit.
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Very clear cut for me on this early slate with just 10 options and two of them are Pirates/Orioles pitchers, so let’s be honest — it’s 8 options, no?
DYLAN CEASE
I laughed in 2019 when everyone raved about Dylan Cease making his debut and just smiled while he struggled out of the gate like all rookie pitchers do. Then in 2020 and the start of 2021 I remained patient while he started to figure things out and now this year I have bought 100% into Cease proclaiming him as my American League Cy Young Winner this season and bought into him in all seasonal & dynasty formats.
So of course I should be looking to target him in DFS now and of course I want to target him against the Detroit Tigers – who as an organization he has absolutely dominated. Yes there are some new faces here, but with the weather and that Tigers ML win yesterday I have no doubt in Cease living up to the hype in his season debut today. Lock and load in a pitching duel with Casey Mize (viable as an SP2 in a gamestack)
BRANDON WOODRUFF
Woody was on our list yesterday before the PPD announcement came down and the weather has not adjusted in any way to dislike him today.
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The only wild card choices would be Justin Steele (Cubs) and Miles Mikolas (Cards) neither of whom I am enamored with compared to Woodruff and Cease so there is no reason in wasting any more space or time on this topic.
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RAYS
Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Wander Franco
Jordan Lyles … I am not a fan. He will see 8 left/switch hitters from the Rays and he allowed nearly a .500 xSLG vs the lefties in 2021 and had a sub 17% strikeout rate. With the indoor environment helping this game climb up on the rankings compared to others we should make this our top target today. Get on the top of this order for sure.
TWINS
Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco
Logan Gilbert is another SP I am confident will be good — but this is not the best of spots for him and he was not quite in good form yet during his final Spring tune-ups so look for the Twins to have a relatively decent day, just not a ton of homeruns because it’s cold in Minnesota.
PIRATES / CARDINALS
Reynolds (PIT), Goldy/O’Neill/Dickerson (STL)
Process of elimination this would be the third best spot to look at and equal to the Orioles/Rays in terms of game stacks. Love Bryan Reynolds vs Miles Mikolas for Pittsburgh and Goldy/O’Neill either are gonna walk all day or have another solid game like they did on Opening Day.
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CATCHERS
- Francisco Mejia
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
- Ji-Man Choi
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Hunter Renfroe
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Luis Arraez
THIRD BASE
This is a thin position today, Arenado is the default if Hayes is out but $5700 for him is very steep on DK, so I would opt to just punt with Eugenio Suarez instead.
- KeBryan Hayes * – Should be back in lineup
- Eugenio Suarez
SHORTSTOP
- Wander Franco
- Jorge Polanco
- Cole Tucker – Value
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Austin Hays
- Tyler O’Neill
- Bryan Reynolds
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Value
- Josh Lowe
- Max Kepler
- Corey Dickerson
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With just five games and this early in the season we are limiting the Dongers Club to temper your HR expectations back to reality…
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Rays
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Corey Dickerson – OF – Cardinals
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
- Cease and Woodruff in 2 of the 3 lineups with Casey Mize in a third as your contrarian SP
- Exposure to the Rays/Orioles game in each lineup
- One offs from the Cardinals & Twins
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Rays, White Sox, Cardinals
Best Leverage / Pivots
Not much on the ‘leverage’ options, but here’s a couple contrarian plays.
- Orioles (Hays), Pirates (Reynolds)
Favorite Bets
- Orioles/Rays OVER 8.5
- White Sox / Tigers UNDER 8.5
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