The sound in my head that keeps playing over and over is the beginning to the song Foreplay (Long Time) by Boston because it feels like it has been forever with the build up coming into this season, but we are finally here. As Vin Scully once proclaimed on Opening Day, we have had all the fan fare all the fuss and feathers but it’s time, it’s time for The Dongers Club…
Okay, so he said Dodger Baseball and not Dongers Club, but if you listen closely I think he just messed up obviously. None the less I don’t know if it was because of the lockout or because I went into a sad state of depression when Sean Payton retired in January but this has felt like the longest off-season I can remember. Sure, we are starting one week later than normal but what is one week really?
I’ll answer that quickly for you. Because one week from now we will be running at 100 mph into the season and finally getting into scenarios where pitchers are going more than 75 pitches and batters are getting their timing down.
For now though, this is extended Spring Training only the Pitchers cannot come back out after being pulled the previous inning and batters will likely be more patient at the plate instead of trying to get as many hacks in as they can like a guy who hasn’t played Golf in 8 months on the driving range before a big Tournament. (I am looking at you Bryce Harper).
Today’s slate is kind of quiet. It got reduced by 2 games with weather issues but we still do not have site synchronicity as FanDuel has the Brewers-Cubs game while DraftKings has opted for the 4PM start time instead.
It’s a long season, so let’s get this show on the road.
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WEATHER
All games which have not yet been PPD should play. The general summary in April as expected is cold but not too cold as we at least do not have any snow in the forecast this year. The wind will come into play in a few spots more than anything else.
Brewers at Cubs (Wrigley)
Wind is blowing out, but as I mentioned in the Manifesto …. oh wait, I didn’t publish that yet.
Well, had I published it, you would have heard me talking about how Wrigley Explosion games have equal to do with the temperature in Chicago as much as the Wind Direction. So don’t panic on FanDuel with that game.
Mets at Nationals (Nats Park)
The Mets and Nationals moved their game to 7PM to avoid some rain so it should be clear to go.
Indians, Guardians, Tribe vs Royals (Kauffman Stadium) and Pirates vs Cardinals (Busch)
Some heavier winds in both these parks. Chilly temps but big stadiums should somewhat limit the wind impact here.
Best Weather Environments for Hitting
Astros at Angels (Angels Stadium)
Padres at Diamondbacks (Chase Field)
ROOF OPEN
Alright, that’s a little more detail than normal for Weather, but it’s Opening Day so let’s have fun with it…
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Do not expect any Pitcher for the first week or so to give you a dominant outing. In fact, if you can get a guy to pitch 5 innings today you are doing well. This doesn’t mean that we automatically just punt pitching with cheap guys because the hitters are also cheap and we don’t have to risk going a 2 Innings arm when we can try to secure 5 IP, 6 strikeouts and pray for a win. But honestly do not bitch and moan when whoever you select winds up with just an average or blah stat line. That’s what I expect from everyone right now…
CORBIN BURNES (FD Only)
I do not mind the wind in Wrigley but I do fear that the Brewers lose as a road favorite here. But to my original point on just take the sure thing talent we have to love Burnes’ ability to register 1+ strikeout per inning vs the Cubs who all total I project will whiff a good amount today. He made 3 total Spring Training starts and the final one he was able to stretch out to 6 innings and was in great form. Hitting is cheap, so his 11.2k price tag is not a concern either on FanDuel given limited options.
ADAM WAINWRIGHT
The worst thing about the lockout delaying the season has to be that I will wind up using a pitcher in a Pirates-Cardinals game to start things off. In the last seven games when Wainwright starts against the Pirates the Buccos have scored a total of four runs with St. Louis going 7-0. What is crazy is that the over has hit in three of those games still because hey that’s what happens when these teams meet up for some reason. Old man Waino isn’t stretched out a ton and I think a 5 inning cap is definitely to be expected, but how do you not back the Waino-Molina Last Dance on Opening Day narrative against the Pirates??
SHANE BIEBER
Bieber is the logical SP1/SP2 however you want to break it down with Waino on DraftKings. KC doesn’t handle him extremely well unless they’re seeing him twice in one week and while Bobby Witt is a lock for me, there are still some easy outs in this lineup like Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor, Nicky Lopez and Hunter Dozier. However most of those are lower in the order and Bieber might only see them once, so even though he will be among the top in strikeouts today I don’t envision it being a must own spot.
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TYLER MAHLE – Today’s Contrarian Arm
At the risk of going overboard on the SP analysis here’s my 4th and final pitcher I want to consider today. Many will see Atlanta and think that this is a prime hitting spot but it’s chilly there for Atlanta and all the fanfare of raising the World Series banner and unveiling the new franchise 1st Baseman has me expecting a major let down offensively for the Braves bats. Mahle was well documented with his dominance towards lefty hitters a season ago and that should continue vs Albies/Olson today in the strikeout department and with the cooler temps I think any power risk vs RH batters will be negated enough.
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Others refer to these as … “Stacks”. But really we are talking about which Lineups we want to focus on for offense. Like the pitching, I want to keep this on three focal point teams if I can but in reality it’s going to expand to 4 or 5 most of the time.
PADRES
Roof open in Chase Field and Madison Bumgarner on the hill. A spicy way to start the season off with the only road team on this slate who did not have to get on a plane to travel to Opening Day. This means that unlike every other road team the Padres didn’t travel back home to their families/spouses and get all caught up with that stuff before heading to their first road trip of the season as they just stayed in Arizona at Spring Training. The D’Backs also carry a bullpen which we should be looking to target early in the season so the late inning upside is there.
- Luke Voit, Manny Machado Wil Myers
ANGELS / ASTROS
No, I did not forget that Kyle Tucker gets to open in his most favorite ballpark out in Anaheim. The Astros lefty along with Yordan Alvarez are really going to emerge even more as the faces of this franchise offensively and I expect a big year from them both. Ohtani is always dominant at home, but I expect those two to have good AB’s all game.
The Angels side is the really good ‘stack’ one. Why in the world everyone has forgotten that Mike Trout is one of the best all time players is laughable and with a healthy Anthony Rendon, Ohtani batting and potential sleepers in Jared Walsh, Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh we have a team that can do loads of damage. This is a good 2&2 spot to stack up.
- Astros: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez
- Angels: Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Jo Adell
METS / NATIONALS
My model really likes this spot but it’s also not heavily accounting weather just yet. What the data obviously loves is Mr. Megill vs Patrick Corbin. Chalk is a little tough to pick out on this Opening Day slate but I expect this one to carry some heavy chalk. Personally I will have it well below the spots mentioned above but if you are a ride the chalk fan, this is that game.
- Mets: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
- Nats: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz …. You have to be a crazy person to want to play any other Nats all season, especially on a day when everyone is cheap.
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CATCHERS
A tradition unlike any other friends…. Catchers rake in Spring Training and then go dead when the regular season starts.
- Austin Nola … Road catchers in Chase. He has to deal with catching Darvish (which is a reason I dont like Yu at all) but checks lots of boxes as a cheap catcher on the favorite stack, in a great park and has a split he should do well in.
- Omar Narvaez (FD)
- Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
I believe Voit will have a very fine DFS season given his power and certainly should destroy Bumgarner and D’Backs bullpen arms. He’s head and shoulders the play at First Base from our top stack. With the DH there’s no reason he shouldn’t get good playing time in this lineup.
- Luke Voit
- Bobby Bradley
- Pete Alonso
SECOND BASE
Welcome to 2022, when Second Base once again is a daily dumpster fire….
- Ketel Marte
- Tommy Edman
- Ian Happ (FD) … I doubt it comes off Burnes but tell me Ian Happ doesn’t sound like an Opening Day walk off HR guy?
THIRD BASE
Welcome to my hell on DraftKings deciding between Bobby Witt and Arenado and the guy who we all should be locking in against MadBum. FanDuel this is your UTIL spot position since Witt is SS over there and that brings Tony Rendon into the mix.
- Manny Machado
- Anthony Rendon
- Nolan Arenado … No, I don’t see a Nolan opening day homer today, just 2 doubles and 3 RBI for the NL MVP
SHORTSTOP
Oddly enough the deepest position overall in fantasy is one of the weaker ones today.
- Paul DeJong
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr (FD)
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Tucker
- Wil Myers
- Nelson Cruz
- Franmil Reyes
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mike Trout
- Nick Senzel
- Juan Soto
- Dylan Carlson – If he is leading off
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jo Adell
- Myles Straw
- David Peralta
- Seth Beer – Today is National Beer day after all.
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The Dongers Club section is where I list 9 players whom I have a little tinkle in my belly about on that slate. They’re likely gonna include players mentioned in the lineups to target or one position breakdowns because once again I don’t like to be a random fraud. But hey, if the position sucks I might go into left field with a call every now and again.
The Chairman is the top overall play. We expect him to homer. We expect him to do good things. And generally, he delivers. The full Dongers Club includes one per position and we want that 3+ homer night from the Dongers Club.
- Luke Voit – 1B – San Diego Padres – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Nationals
- Ian Happ – 2B – Cubs
- Franmil Reyes – OF – Cleveland
- Aaron Nola’s Brother – C – Padres
- BONUS …………………. Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
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The one pitcher I did not mention above who stands out as being good today is Max Fried. My concern with him was that he got hammered in his last Spring start and he is not a strikeout guy. Generally with Fried we play him hoping to get depth and lots of ground ball outs. Now the Reds are a lineup which has too many lefties in it most likely today so he should pitch favorable but he’s not gonna rack up the K’s that Bieber, Mahle or Burnes will and I’ll take Waino vs the Pirates instead. So my leverage off Fried chalk is riding Mahle instead.
Leverage / Pivots
- Mahle over Fried
- Nationals over Mets if you use bats in this game but note this is not where I am going and it’s not in my top 2
- Add in Arizona Hitters as well for Chase Field game stack
DK 3-Entry Max Pitching Combinations Ranked
- Waino & Bieber
- Bieber & Mahle
- Waino & Mahle
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Mets, Padres, Brewers, Braves
Contrarian YOLO Stacks
- Cleveland
- Cardinals not named Goldy/Arenado
Favorite Bets
I will be doing a bet the dogs in April journey all month long. If you want to tail me the process is to bet basically 0.25u on every +125 or greater Dog that we have — ESPECIALLY the home dogs during the early weeks of the season. That aside, here’s my top picks today
- Cubs +160
- Reds / Braves UNDER 8
- Padres / Diamondbacks OVER 9
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