And now for the MAIN slate this Wednesday evening.
- Mets at Nationals
- Rays at Angels – 4PM Local start. Expect Shadows and 2 good pitchers going.
- Athletics at Tigers – Fan promo night. Show up to the game and receive $20 just for coming out.
- Red Sox at Braves
- Astros at Twins – Leave it to Minnesota to screw up weather
- Orioles at Cardinals
- Blue Maggots at Rangers
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WEATHER
Astros at Twins – Rain coming in this evening, will they play through it or wait? They have a day game tomorrow so a big chance they PPD and play 2 tomorrow.
Starts in Delay = Fade
Starts on time = Play
Either way I have one play in that game.
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It’s a pay up for pitching, but contrarian still kind of night.
SHANE McCLANAHAN
Shane makes for a good SP game stack or pivot off Ohtani. The one weakness the Angels do have at times is that the secondary pieces in their lineup drop off against LHP. Anyone else find it interesting that McClanahan is $1400 more than Ohtani? I know he has been great, but they are baiting everyone to take Ohtani and someone else at SP2.
IAN ANDERSON
This is a game I would invest in for a contrarian arm but full disclosure I definitely could be on the wrong side. Eovaldi has been boom or bust while Anderson has been much more steady and I would prefer to attack Boston with his change up than Eovaldi attacking Atlanta with gas all night.
All the warning track outs tonight for Anderson!
TYLOR MEGILL
One reason Megill is pitching so well is that he has held opponents to just a 20% Line Drive rate this season.
The Nationals come in with some good recent numbers which keeps his rating on the model down but long term this is a lineup that should strikeout more than the 18-19% they have lately and I expect that Megill will finish in the 25% range today — which projects to be about 6.5-7 strikeouts.
If he can finish exactly on 6.5 that would be damn impressive and we should just shut it all down for the Aliens to come in and put us out of our misery. That and he for sure gives up a homer to Soto
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Cardinals
I am definitely going back to one of the spots that failed last night and no I won’t mention the other (even though it looks very good again to me). The Cardinals will have B2B homers today.
- Edman
- Goldy
- Nolan
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Athletics
The alter-ego of Carson Wentz is pitching for the Tigers. Joey Wentz (LHP) will open it up for Detroit , he projects to be a watered down version of Yusei Kikuchi, only he is from Kansas and Kikuchi is most definitely not from Kansas.
- Chad Pinder
- Ramon Laureano
- Sean Murphy
- Kevin Smith
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CATCHER
- Sean Murphy
- Yadi Molina
- Keibert Ruiz
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FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Miguel Cabrera
- Just play Goldy
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SECOND BASE
- Jed Lowrie
- Jorge Polanco – I lied, 2 plays in this game.
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THIRD BASE
Love Bregman right now vs RHP, that’s where he is pulling the ball and this is a stadium you want to pull the ball in. If he is out, then Arenado is in play and if you are a 6’4 tall middle-aged fan of Taysom Hill then you can consider playing Bobby Witt Jr I guess.
I will have two guys here on FD.
- Alex Bregman
- Nolan Arenado
- Bobby Witt Jr
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SHORTSTOP
Royals starter is TBD as of my analysis. If it is Singer, then Seager is once again a thing.
- Francisco Lindor
- Corey Seager
- Elvis Andrus
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
If the HOU-MIN game plays the Astros probably are popular. Their OF is my fade tonight.
- Byron Buxton
- Chad Pinder
- J.D. Martinez
- Juan Soto
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ramon Laureano
- Hunter Dozier
- Kole Calhoun
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Brad Miller
- Anthony Santander
- Juan Yepez
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- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Tommy Edman -2B – Cardinals
- Byron Buxton – OF – Twins
- Sean Murphy – C – Athletics
- Chad Pinder – OF – Athletics
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Brad Miller – OF – Rangers
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- BONUS ……………….. Bobby Witt Jr – 3B – Royals
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Core Plays / How to approach the slate
I think there’s a strong case to take the top pitcher so far this season against a hot team in a spot where we project the visibility to become an issue by the 2nd/3rd inning. That would be Shane McClanahan, so he will be my SP1 tonight with the right value and Goldschmidt/edman around him.
Below are the main core pieces I would build lineups around tonight. Don’t need them all, but this is where I start
- SP1 = McClanahan
- Contrarian SP =Anderson
- Goldschmidt/Edman
- Athletics Value (Pinder/Lowrie/Murphy, 1 or 2, not full stack)
- Royals/Rangers Value (Miller if leading off, Witt if leading off)
Favorite overall one offs to spend up on are Bregman, Lowe, Lindor, Buxton
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Expected Chalk & Leverage Opportunities
- Ohtani should be heavy chalk today, he is your leverage opportunity. I don’t think he gets blown up though, so don’t go overboard with Rays hitters
- Chalky offenses – Houston, Texas, St. Louis
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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers
- NY Mets
- Oakland Athletics
- Ian Anderson
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Top Bets
- Orioles/Cardinals OVER 8
- Minnesota Twins ML
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