No Cubs home game this afternoon and two games on the 6pm Senior Citizen’s Slate, so we are smaller than usual on this Friday the 13th – but we have 13 games. So break out all the jinxes and superstitions you can handle tonight. Does this mean it’s a heavy narrative weekend? We’ll soon find out.
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WEATHER
All games are good to go! Very good start to the weekend. What could possibly go wrong?
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This is one of the most balanced and normal pitching slates we have seen in quite a while. There are 11 total pitchers who are 8k and above on DraftKings, six of them being 9k or more and three of them being 10k or more. So what if I told you that out of those 11 there would be a minimum of seven (7) who would hit 20+ DK Fantasy Points tonight and out of those 7 that four (4) would be in the 9k and above range.
Your answer should immediately be – okay, I will swim in that spot to take the path to getting 50+ points from my pitchers and worry about mixing in the hitters afterwards.
And I would say, Yes. Good job. Now get me a beer.
MAX SCHERZER
Max Scherzer should absolutely just love pitching in Citi Field on Friday the 13th in the Mets Black Uniforms against a young lineup. You know how the other night you were thankful you had Justin Verlander against the Twins? Similar spot tonight but with more strikeouts.
LOGAN WEBB
Here it is….. Guys…. Over here! I found it. It’s the Logan Webb start we have all been waiting for. Webb is very strong against RHB, which the Cardinals offense is mostly reliant upon and one of those is Tyler O’Neil which is Irish for 0-4 with 3 strikeouts. The Cards and Webb just met last week in San Francisco, when Buster Posey had to be all special and have his ceremony before Webb took the mound. It lead to a rough start for Webb in a warm afternoon and I bit the bullet on his less than dominant start.
But if you look closer at how he pitched, there was a lot of promise and whenever Hitters/Pitchers see each other twice in a row I tend to go with the side who struggled more the time before. So Webb in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium is my under the radar top end SP play today.
Ahead of …
KEVIN GAUSSMAN
Arguably the best pitcher in the game right now is not in my top 2 and why? Well, because I really like the guys above him here and I hate picking on the Rays at home on Friday’s.
To which you roll your eyes and I just sit back with a stare on my face after the Brandon Lowe lead off homer that never happened in Anaheim happens today. Gausman is great, he is one of the guys to get 20, but I don’t see him getting 30. So we do not HAVE to have him today. But yes, I would play him.
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They stink … but they will pitch better than you think tonight … These are cheaper guys without the same upside but if you are hell bent on forcing in a higher priced stack then have at it with these cheaper SP2’s on DK.
Nick Pivetta … Has not been as good this year but profiles well vs the Rangers.
Kyle Freeland … The Royals are a bad offense no way around it and will have some value chalk vs a guy who has been pitching fairly well this season.
CUBS
One human being should not like the Cubs the way I do tonight but they’re facing former Cub Zach Davies out in Arizona with the roof likely open tonight. Davies coming off a good start is when we want to pick on him and with his former Catcher Willson Contreras anchoring things we should see some long RBI producing innings from this lineup.
- [whoever leads off]
- Willson Contreras
- Ian Happ
- Patrick Wisdom
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Conspiracy Theory Section …
YANKS / WHITE SOX
So do you honestly believe that MLB is preventing juiced balls from sneakily making their way into stadiums for certain series as we approach the middle part of May? If so, I have a Falcons Super Bowl ring to sell you.
I doubt anyone touches White Sox but Abreu’s heater is coming and Josh Donaldson most definitely is homering first AB.
- NYY: Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge
- CWS: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
DODGERS
Ditto this. Literally ditto what I wrote above. 80+ degrees with wind slightly blowing out to right field.
- LAD: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Trea Turner
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Even with some good top end pitching I like a good number of 2 man type builds today, there’s a good amount of options tonight to be able to create a balanced 2-2-2-1-1 type build
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Will Smith
- Christian Vasquez
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FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Trey Mancini
- Frederick Freeman
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SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Max Muncy
- Jonathan Villar
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THIRD BASE
Very strong position and considering I do not have chalky Bobby Witt Jr #1 here he is probably the guy who hits for the cycle in Coors.
- Josh Donaldson
- Manny Machado
- Emmanuel Rivera – If you just want to find some cheap offense today instead of Witt he is the $2300 free square almost.
- Bobby Witt Jr.
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SHORTSTOP
Ugly spot tonight and one to get some cheaper players out of.
- Brandon Crawford
- Jorge Mateo
- Jose Iglesias
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Seiya Suzuki
- Ian Happ
- Cody Bellinger
- Teoscar Hernandez
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge
- Yordan Alvarez
- Nicholas Castellanos
- J.D. Martinez
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Verdugo
- Michael Brantley
- Tyler Nevin
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- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Yankees
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Jose Iglesias – SS – Rockies
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- BONUS ……………. Patrick Wisdom – Cubs
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Core Plays
The weakest position offensively is between Shortstop and Outfield. So find cheaper bats in the OF first before ramming in the donkey plays like Trout and Ohtani simply because… And yes, I know it’s Friday but that’s not a good park for them.
- Pay up on SP1 with Max
- I love Logan Webb tonight, he’s my SP2
- C – Willson Contreras
- 3B – Josh Donaldson
- Value at SS, OF2, OF3
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Expected Chalk
- Rockies, Yankees, Dodgers, Royals ($)
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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers
- Red Sox
- White Sox
- Cubs
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Favorite Bets
- Cubs/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
- Giants/Cardinals UNDER 7.5
- Yanks/White Sox OVER 8
- ML Parlay: Rays, Braves, Red Sox
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QUESTION: Dear, Stephen. I see that Walker Buehler is pitching at home on a Friday and is probably < 10% owned yet he didn’t make your mentions. How come?
Because this news came out actually right after I had finished with the pitching analysis and yes I will have a Walker Buehler lineup tonight, thank you for asking. You should too.
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