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DAILY-AMBUSH · May 14, 2022

The Dongers Club – May 14th

Here come the runs, do de do do, here come the runs, do de do do, and I say, that’s alright….  Yep, a big scoring night last evening and there’s going to be a lot of over-reaction to that by others, but we must remember that we expected Bullpens to start to wear down and the combination of hitters getting into a consistent routine is going to lead to more teams scoring 7+ runs going forward.

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WEATHER

The Mariners/Mets game could have some rain, but I expect that they will find a way to get it in.

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SHANE BIEBER

This is a team Bieber can handle and a stadium he has usually had some hot starts in.  Let others fade Bieber off a really bad start as he bounces back tonight vs a suddenly ice cold Twins offense.

ZAC GALLEN

A mix between Hendricks and Gallen tonight and I’m sure there is some type of mixed drink with Hendricks but I am personally not going to recommend it.  The side to prefer is Gallen right now over Kyle Hendricks, who I do think pitches okay, but Gallen is in a very good routine right now and with the Cubs high strikeout potential I don’t want to fade what should be a 7 to 9 strikeout performance from the Milk Man.

MICHAEL LORENZEN *

We want to keep an eye out how the first game of this double header plays out.  But there’s a lot of positive things for Lorenzen starting with the Oakland offense being terrible and this being the evening game of their double-header.  If the first game is an Angels blowout though I wouldn’t mind fading Lorenzen as most double headers are being split.

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Darkhorse Pitchers (Secondary Lineups)

  • Glenn Otto
  • Ranger Suarez

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I don’t see stacks doing what they did last night.  Expect these games to still feature good upside for the overs but not as explosive as yesterday.  The entire world will go to the Yankees/White Sox in a game with Jordan Montgomery and Dallas Keuchel, and while this game could still finish 5-3, I would tell you that early Saturday night games in Chicago always tend to play down to offense.  It’s just a thing with the lighting around 6pm when they start the games there on Saturday.  So yeah, the Yanks are hot and Rizzo probably has a LvL crime vs Keuchel, but buyer beware on going overboard.

ASTROS & NATIONALS

Should be humid again in Nats Park which is one stadium that explodes when the humidity comes into play.  Houston is on a tear right now and big ole Erick Fedde is not going to be the one to completely shut them down.  Don’t ignore Washington here too, Cristian Javier doesn’t have an H in his name but he gives up plenty of hits to lefties and Soto/Bell/Yadiel should do decently.

  • Houston:   Brantley, Bregman
  • Washington:   Soto, Bell

ROCKIES

Coors Field with two bad teams, such a fun treat.  I do not believe the Royals will blow up German Marquez and I honestly don’t believe that the Rockies drop 10+ off Carlos Hernandez who is pitching better, but is prime to have a bad inning in this game tonight.

  • Rockies:   Cron, McMahon

PHILLIES

There’s a lot of value one offs here on the Phillies, a team who is hitting the ball well and playing in a warm park again this evening.  Urias is not someone I would recommend going heavy on a stack against but with the prices on a couple of these guys how do we not bite?

  • Realmuto, Bohm, Hoskins

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Even with some good top end pitching I like a good number of 2 man type builds today, there’s a good amount of options tonight to be able to create a balanced 2-2-2-1-1 type build

CATCHER

  1. JT Realmuto … This is a free square today.  Realmuto is $3400 but should crush an opposite field double off Urias
  2. Willson Contreras
  3. Martin Maldanado

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FIRST BASE

  1. Josh Bell
  2. CJ Cron
  3. Anthony Rizzo

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SECOND BASE

  1. Trevor Story
  2. Ketel Marte
  3. Marcus Semien

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THIRD BASE

  1. Alex Bregman
  2. Andy Ibanez
  3. Alec Bohm

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SHORTSTOP

  1. Jeremy Pena
  2. Bobby Witt Jr
  3. Josh Rojas / Nick Ahmed – Lineup order dependent….

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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Michael Brantley
  2. Juan Soto
  3. Luis Robert
  4. Giancarlo Stanton

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OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Kyle Tucker
  2. Yordan Alvarez
  3. David Peralta
  4. Mookie Betts

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OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Nick Castellanos
  2. Alek Thomas
  3. Yadiel Hernandez

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  1. Michael Brantley – OF – Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
  3. Josh Bell – 1B – Nationals
  4. Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
  5. David Peralta – OF – Diamondbacks
  6. JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
  7. Trevor Story – 2B – Red Sox
  8. Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
  9. BONUS ………………………………. Andy Ibanez – 3B – Rangers

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Core Plays

  • Shane Bieber
  • Michael Brantley
  • Josh Bell
  • Luis Robert

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Expected Chalk

  • Yankees, Rockies/Royals, Astros

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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers

  • Phillies/Dodgers

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Favorite Bets

  • Phils/Dodgers OVER 8.5
  • Astros/Nats OVER 8.5
  • Rangers + Mets ML Parlay

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