Welcome to the Monday Edition of the Dongers Club, which features the information we need for this fine 11 game Monday slate. Two games start early in the Senior Citizen’s slate and both are down in Florida, which feels just natural and is also why we name that the Senior Citizens slate.
Tonight’s slate kicks off games in Camden, SkyDome*, Fenway Pawk, Citi Field, Miller* Park, Wrigley, The graveyard in Texas, Kauffman, Coors, Not Coors (Oakland), and Dodger Stadiums.
From a pitching standpoint we have my favorite match-up in the past decade and a bunch of #3, #4 and has beens on the mound, including the possibility of Johnny Cueto pitching.
But that’s not even a blip on our radar for excitement.
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WEATHER
Cards at Mets – Big storm system coming through the east coast. This one has significant delay risk but likely low PPD risk. They should be able to watch the storms finish off & get the game in which could help St. Louis since they traveled late last night or back fire if they all fall asleep in the 5th inning of a game that started at 9pm EST.
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This is a dumpster fire for pitching tonight by my standards. The thing that I always prioritize is finding pitching that will go 6+ IP and tonight is the anti-depth slate in terms of guys going deep. This doesn’t mean they all get blown up, it just means that it’s hard for me to find a depth of guys who I am happy to use.
LUIS SEVERINO
I can tell you right now my gut says that Severino will not finish with some dominant score that makes you kick yourself for fading him. What you will be kicking yourself about is not taking Severino’s 6 innings of clean Baseball in a park which isn’t going off and a lineup that has a bunch of cold hitters right now since Jorge Mateo might be out due to injury.
NOAH SYNDERGAARD
I am just confident in taking pitchers against bad offenses. Unfortunately the list of bad offenses and opposing SP who can go 5+ IP tonight also seems to be limited, so despite Thor being on the road he is still in a favorable pitching park and if the roof is closed as expected then I think he gets through this Rangers lineup without any major damage.
- I don’t hate the idea of Jon Gray pitching well for Texas too, but he too has not gond deep in a while.
IAN ANDERSON
Both Anderson and his opposing SP, Freddy Peralta, are facing teams who have potential to drop 8-10 runs and also strike out 8-10 times. Peralta is the guy that many will point at for higher K% upside but it’s Anderson who I think flys under the radar and pitches his best game of the year. Anderson has been better vs LHB which is going to dictate his night against the top of this lineup.
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DARK HORSE …
MAD-BUM
While Mad-Bum has the highest risk against the Dodgers Lineup he is also somewhat of a crafty lefty now and if we have seen one big thing this year from Bumgarner it has been a much better approach on most nights allowing him to still pitch deeper into games and avoid the 1 1/3 -10 score which some other guys could see tonight. He’s my darkhorse arm.
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Not touching …
TONY GONSOLIN … Gonzo has not had bad luck against Arizona, which is an offense that has been better than I expected this year. However, Gonsolin has thrown 83, 75, 65, 84 and 84 pitches in his starts and the Diamondbacks are a good plate discipline team. He just got through 4 IP vs them in Chase Field earlier this season and you want me to pay 10.2k for him today? GTFOH
CHRIS ARCHER … Call me when Archer makes it into the 5th inning. Sure, Bumgarner might give up 2 more ER but he will pitch 2 more IP as well.
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MARINERS
Here we go! Yusei Kikuchi and I say against the Mariners? We have Kikuchi vs Chris Flexen and two offenses which have enough high end bats that can tear each of these frauds up big time. In the case of the Mariners they have the bonus of facing their former pitcher who is also coming off two very good above his paygrade starts vs the Yankees. Kikuchi has a correction tonight and it ends poorly. The Jays pen has also been a little shaky of late, so I can see Seattle putting up the most runs on this slate by a long margin.
- Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, Julio Rodriguez
- Jesse Winker – The $3200 price on Winker is comical since I think Kikuchi is gone early.
BLUE JAYS
Just keep your ass parked up north of the border, we have a second part of this fireworks show and it’s the Jays RH batters against Chris Flexen Kick in the Nuts. He has given up 6 HR to RH hitters and a .511 xSLG. Flexen’s moderate velocity is also something the Jays hitters should be able to square up and have a big night. I would bet the dog in this game after they are down 5 runs because you can easily middle it to where you have Seattle +200 and Toronto +200 at some point in this game.
- George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Teoscar Hernandez
RED SOX
In terms of weather the Dew Point factor in Boston is good for offenses today. I will expect heavy ownership going to the Houston side given their recent hot play but it’s Boston who I think we should be buying low on. Eggs Odorizzi, much like Kikuchi has had a couple solid starts above his pay grade in a row, which I expect to end tonight.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Rafael Devers
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CATCHER
- Luis Torrens
- Danny Jansen
- Will Smith
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FIRST BASE
- Ty France
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Paul Goldschmidt
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SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Jeff McNeil
- Trevor Story
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THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Rafael Devers
- Yoan Moncada
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SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Xander Bogaerts
- JP Crawford
- Royce Lewis – Young vs Young, cheap for $2100 could give you a couple hits and a run scored. This is a good position tonight though.
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Julio Rodriguez
- George Springer
- JD Martinez
- Yordan Alvarez … I don’t see why you would play Judge over Yordan for $1100 difference, but that’s just me I guess.
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mike Trout
- Joc Pederson
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Bryan Reynolds
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OUTFIELD – Value
- LaMonte Wade … Thanks for DK for pushing all the chalk into Coors. I believe this game will go under, so we don’t need it but Wade leading off for $3400 is viable. Duh.
- Jesse Winker … Could be batting lower in the order, which would actually be just fine. It means he faces Kikuchi at most once and the bottom of the lineup will need to have a couple big hits to turn it over. Winker is the key to Mariners stacks today.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Pavin Smith
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- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Jesse Winker – OF – Mariners
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Julio Y. Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- BONUS …………………………………. Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
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Core Plays
- Luis Severino
- Seattle + Toronto + Boston
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Expected Chalk
- Coors Field – It’s okay chalk, I would not have more than 2 hitters from either team though.
- Dodgers
- Yankees
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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers
- Blue Jays
- Mariners
- Red Sox
- Yordan Alvarez
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Favorite Bets
- Seattle/Toronto OVER 8.5
- Houston/Boston OVER 8.5
- Diamondbacks +195
- Mariners +135
- Mets -120 ML