Sunday Dongers Club – May 1st

We made it to May!  Finally the weather is going to start warming up, right?  Right???  Sigh.  Not yet, but close my friends, close.

In a shocking twist we have another Sunday slate where DraftKings has said no thank you on the Rangers home game and FanDuel has opted to put a waiver claim in adding it over on their slate.  Neither site, thankfully, has included the Reds and Rockies game in Coors Field today.

As always, just the one main article for Sundays with thoughts on the afternoon slate posted in Discord if I find it relevant and then we go into the Showdown Tilt Tilt slate which should be a very good game tonight in Citi Field.

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WEATHER

About that weather, here are the spots today which are worth monitoring for rain.  I expect that these games will try to get played.

Padres at Pirates

This has the higher rain % chance which could impact the pitching options today.  Basically if they give it a go from the start they will play through it as much as they can with some later afternoon storms getting stronger.  If they start in a delay, we will fade pitching and sadly one of the hitters here.

Red Sox at Orioles

This will play, but a stray shower or two might drop in to say hi.

ROOFS

I expect closed in Toronto, Milwaukee and Ugly in Tampa.  Miami is TBD.

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SANDY ALCANTARA

Happy South Beach day everyone!  We get the team who has the longest trip out of everyone to South Beach going up against one of the best SP in the NL right now as Sandy Alcantara is going to remind everyone that he is the Marlins Ace and not Pablo Lopez (but we like Pablo too) and Sandy will lower his ERA from whatever it is (1.78, damn) because he won’t give up a run this Sunday afternoon vs the Mariners.

CORBIN BURNES

With offense down there is an argument which might be said about why bother paying up for pitching and it’s just dead wrong.  First off, we aren’t paying that much for our SP2 in most cases and second off with offense being limited it has only further made the top end guys that much more reliable and dominant.

Case in point is Corbin Burnes, who has been shot out of a cannon to start this season after opening day vs today’s opponent the Cubs.  He has ramped up with 8, 10 and 11 strikeouts over his last three throwing 107 and 106 pitches the last two starts.  Definitely signs that he could finish in the 90’s today with just 7-8 strikeouts against a Cubs lineup who has been decent in their plate approaches, but there’s also verry little in this lineup that makes me think he wont hit his 25 point floor today.  Had he been 12k like he should be then I could argue a fade.

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Other Thoughts on Today’s Pitchers

I have lots of other thoughts on guys today.  Joe Musgrove is the clear #3 for me today if we ignore weather, but sadly we cannot ignore weather and for that reason I am not looking to push him out there.

Kevin Gausman has been throwing gas in his start as a Blue Jay and seems to be really comfortable pitching up at home in the Rogers Center, but we can easily argue that the Astros are not a team to pick on two days in a row and I really like the over in this game as well, I’ll take Burnes and Sandy instead.

Logan Gilbert, Luis Severino and on FanDuel Max Fried Kyle Muller are all going to pitch well but I suspect all might not win.

Same too can be said for Mitch Keller and Jordan Lyles, but they also can suck really bad and both have specific hitters who I want to target against them today, please, do not use these guys.

Dallas Keuchel should pitch better too, but … again, dont use this guy.

So our Sunday sleeper choices are really pointless for me today.  I am not going back to the Daniel Lynch well, you missed that.  Although I can see rostering Sandy and Danny together as some weird Grease narrative but Josh Donaldson will make you regret it.

I am not going to push Michael Lorenzen as the sleeping Giant White Sox are about to pop off, so if you want a sleeper…..  You really want me to give you a Sunday sleeper?

Are you sure?

Really sure?

I mean… Okay.

I just gotta make sure you are ready for this.

Alright.

Your Sunday Sleeper is …

…

…

…

Just play the studs above you moron.

There is no point in using a Sunday sleeper today.

And here you thought I was going to recommend Marcus Stroman and his 6 inning, 7 K, 1 ER allowed performance today.

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The Hot Corner …

As I went through the games and look over my analysis there were three guys who just leaped out at me as – oh that guys going to be a problem today for that pitcher.  Unfortunately all three are at the same position, but fortunately one of them has been on my radar for a few days now and I will stick to my original thought in that regard.

The players would be Rafael Devers who is going to drop a home run ball into the right field bleachers at Camden Yards today (as shown in the cover photo), Manny Machado who if the weather holds off will continue his NL MVP hot start and as mentioned above, Josh Donaldson taking a Daniel Lynch pitch and driving it out of Kauffman Stadium.

So there is your HR parlay for today, and in DFS we will want to make sure we have the right one off at 3B today and I didn’t even mention Matt Chapman who for those keeping score at home is next up in line among the Blue Jays to hit a HR today after we correctly nailed Vlad on Friday and Springer yesterday.  So happy 3B day, and if all this pans out as I suspect then I guess Alec Bohm is your guy who takes Max deep tonight on SNB.

Double down on Third Base at FanDuel.

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Given the layout of the slate with limited offense and some top end pitching, it’s very hard to try and justify a 4 man stack that requires paying up at all the spots and I have strong one off or 2 man combo vibes today.

But there are a few teams which I see having ‘blow up’ potential, so here’s those potential spots.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

We begin with exclusive video of Jose Abreu and Yasmani Grandal this morning as the light has been shined by Tim Anderson and Luis Robert yesterday sparking the revelation that it’s time to get the 2022 season going in Chicago …

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Kevin Kiermaier

I will be honest, Josh Winder, today’s spot starter for the Twins is not someone whom I have been aware of much.  He’s not going to last long and he has the face of someone who definitely took a massive dump in the teachers lounge bathroom in high school.

Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco should welcome him to COSTCO today.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Manny Machado, Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth

Taking a chance on Musgrove is too risky in this spot but I love Machado and the Lefties in PNC will hit today for sure, it’s just a matter of will it be Grisham, Cronenworth or Hosmer.  If the game is delayed to start this isn’t one I would take too much risk on for your main lineup.

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CATCHER

1. Yasmani Grandal
2. Ryan Jeffers
3. PUNT with the spinning wheel as your last pick if you dont go Grandal.

FIRST BASE

1. Jose Abreu
2. Ji Man Choi (Or Yandy Diaz for $1200 cheaper)

SECOND BASE

1. Brandon Lowe
2. Jake Cronenworth
3. Ramon Urias

THIRD BASE

Love em all here today, but Devers is our King.

1. Rafael Devers
2. Manny Machado
3. Josh Donaldson
4. Matt Chapman
5. Angry Nolan
6. George Brett
7. Chris Sabo
8. Carney Lansford
9. Roger Dorn

SHORTSTOP

1. Carlos Correa
2. Bo Bichette … It’s Bo or Chappy, one of them takes Framber deep
3. Wander Franco

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

We gotta hit the cheap bats in the OF today with the way this slate sets up, so given that it’s Sunday we should be able to do that.  These guys are all in that value to mid range and I would get 2 of these guys here with the studs in the IF being the anchors.

1. Gavin Sheets
2. Andrew Benintendi
3. Josh Lowe
4. Trent Grisham

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

1. JD Martinez
2. Lourdes Gurriel Jr
3. AJ Pollock
4. Tyler O’Neill

OUTFIELD – Value

1. Jackie Bradley Jr
2. Jason Heyward
3. Pavin Smith
4. Anthony Santander
5. Kyle Garlick

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1. Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
2. Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
3. Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
4. Andrew Benintendi – OF – Royals
5. Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
6. Gavin Sheets – OF – White Sox
7. Beaux Bichette – SS – Jays
8. Tyler O’Neill – OF – Cardinals
9. BONUS ………………………….. Manny Machado – 3B – Padres

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Core Plays

Sandy Alcantara SP1, can mix and match the SP2 choices between Corbin Burnes/Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman/Nick Pivetta as cheaper guys…

• Sandy Alcantara SP1
• Rafael Devers
• Gavin Sheets
• Brandon Lowe
• Dont be afraid to take min priced plays at C, one IF spot and one OF spot to get Burnes + Sandy.

Expected Chalk

• Angels
• NY Yankees
• Cardinals
• Red Sox

Best Low Owned Offense(s)

• White Sox … We are ahead of the curve on this.  Ride it.
• Twins … In my NFL articles I always say something like, Who is getting overlooked and why is it ________.  That would be the Twins today.  I just think the Rays side is better but Fleming out of the pen hasn’t been great this year.

Favorite Bets

• White Sox ML
• Rays & Jays ML Parlay
• Rangers ML

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