Friday MLB DFS is the best kind of MLB DFS and you can never change my mind on this fact. The summer time weather is rolling in and although next weekend is a 3-day holiday weekend for many I still contest that any day when there are 15 baseball games and a 2:20 PM EST Wrigley Field home game that we should mark that as the beginning of an unofficial 2.5 day weekend for every hard working American.
Shoot, we’ll even let the Canadiens in on this since they have a home game tonight and we have warm weather everywhere …. except for Coors Field. What in the wide world of weather is going on in Colorado where it’s now 32 degrees and SNOWING? Oh, the Polar Bear must be in town of course and so we’ll likely be able to cross off Mets-Rockies from our radar this weekend as they deal with snow. In May.
From a DFS perspective there are 2 games on the Senior Citizen’s Slate with the Cardinals/Pirates (bet the over!) and the Braves/Marlins playing in the earlier time window and thus are not on the main slates tonight.
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WEATHER
NYM at COL: PPD – Snow.
CWS at NYY: PPD – YES!!!!!
Much warmer, a little humid and wind blowing out in a few spots – most notably
LAD at PHI: Upper 70’s, wind out to left center.
TB at BAL: Mid 80’s, wind out to left center.
DET at CLE: Mid 80’s, strong wind out to right center.
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A couple nights ago was Ace’s night and tonight is #2/#3 starters night as we have a lot of C+ to B level pitchers going and it’s Lefties night. Nestor Cortes, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Julio Urias, Robbie Ray, Ranger Suarez, Jalen Beeks, Tarik Skubal, Eric Lauer, Daniel Lynch, Devin Smeltzya later, Martin Perez and Sean Manaea to be specific on Southpaw Friday.
I guess Charlie Leibrandt, Jamie Moyer, Johan Santana and Jimmy Key are on the COVID list and were unavailable to go tonight.
Oh, and Luis Castillo is pitching.
On, a Friday.
This GIF is of course in reference to that one time I said Luis Castillo was going to tear up his opponent and used another Hyeena GIF to describe it and of course Castillo went -13 on us and castrated our lineups. So we do not ever use Luis Castillo on a Friday, it’s just bad and no, I wouldn’t want to use him vs the Blue Jays either.
So let’s dig into this Pitching Slate and find our 3 guys.
I will say this right now, pricing on pitching isn’t a big deal today. We have in my mind a dozen or so pitchers who are all going to have a potential to finish in the same boat and this is a great slate to be taking some risks on pitching. My approach is actually to start with the hitters I want to use and then work my way back from there into the SP I will take a shot on today. Everyone has risks tonight, it’s a matter of minimizing those risks.
This is a choose your fighter SP1 slate on DraftKings.
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LUIS CASTILLO
F*** it man, if Mike Zunino can homer as the Chairman then we can go back to the Luis Castillo well on a Friday and just test fate. Castillo is VERY good vs RHB and that is the entire Blue Jays lineup. Toronto is also a free swinging team so if anyone is going to get a big K boost today, it’s the hyeena himself.
JAKOB JUNIS
The Giants are letting Junis use his third pitch, what a novel concept this is. And he has now learned how to not try and strike out every single batter he faces with his extremely good slider. That pitch though will still get him through the Padres lineup in one of the better pitching parks tonight given weather and other elements. Junis is the poster child for this pitching slate tonight. Won’t give you 100 pitches, wont give you 7 innings, but also will strike out a batter per IP and give up 2 or fewer ER for fairly cheap.
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High Confidence But Low Upside SP2 Game Stack!
DEVIN SMELTZER
The Royals will be without Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor, George Brett, Danny Tartabull, Kevin Seitzer, Willie Wilson and of course Frank White tonight against the Twins. That is my way of jokingly saying they aint got shit in this lineup besides Bobby Witt Jr that I think can hit Smeltzer making a spot start. He went 5 IP in his last spot start and should be effective here tonight as well.
DANIEL LYNCH
Lynch has been VERY good in his second year for the Royals. This game is going under and he will pitch just fine. Everyone will see that the Twins have a loaded lineup of RHB but Lynch gets more strikeouts vs Righties and this stadium is going to keep the ball in the park with ease tonight.
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Also expect to pitch well
Chase Silseth … You know I do not love young pitchers and seeing the same team twice in a row like a lot of other guys tonight isn’t encouraging either. But Oakland is straight dumpster trash.
Martin Perez … Astros height theory. Short pitchers do well vs Houston.
Lots of risk, lots of upside:
Tarik Skubal … Lord Tarik is facing tonights Chairman. So you can play Tarik and Bet the Chairman HR or fade Tarik and play the Chairman. Cleveland doesn’t K a ton and the wind is blowing out, so I am not playing Skee-ball tonight after being on him last start.
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We have seen a few stadiums tend to play well for offense, which brings out the conspiracy theory in regards to the new Baseball’s and Humidors, but now with the weather being equal in most spots it should mitigate those differences some.
This is more of a one off slate than a stack slate but if you are looking at the games which could feature the most offense these stand out to me.
Mariners vs Red Sox
Boston has been the best park all season IMO. Most of that has to do with the Red Sox horrific bullpen which is going to get tested tonight for sure. I think Robbie Ray is one of the big upside SP’s going tonight but Boston has always done favorable against him and they’re heating up + good Dew Point here makes me believe Boston has 2 HR in them tonight as well.
- SEA: Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Julio Rodriguez
- BOS: Enrique Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
Dodgers vs Phillies
Last week in LA they claimed the balls were dark and hard and while your mind is now in the gutter let me freshen it up with the prospect of Mookie Betts drilling the first pitch into the left field seats to start this game. Philadelphia has had weird results at home with offense being extremely down there and both these lefties can throw up good starts every once and a while. However I am banking on the big jump in warm weather and seeing each other twice in a short span to result in a good offensive game on both sides.
- LAD: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
- PHI: JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos
Nationals vs Brewers
Eric Lauer sucks. Alright, so he doesn’t suck that much, but when he does it is with walks and the Nationals are doing that one thing kinda well right now. Washington is not the team you want to pick on and they’ll hit well here.
The Brewers though have the DFS winning potential stack. It’s either all in on the lefties here or fading them entirely.
- WSH: Soto, Cruz, Bell, Franco
- MIL: Yelich, Wong, Narvaez, Tellez
Angels
Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh
It’s extremely difficult in my mind to see the Angels not scoring 5+ runs today, but I don’t see this as an automatic I gotta have Trout and Ohtani and move on. Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon are my favorite Angels as the middle of the order will need clutch hits with men on base against Paul Blackburn – arguably the Athletics 2nd best pitcher this season. I prefer them for their prices over Ohtani/Trout/Ward vs a decent pitcher.
Tigers vs Guardians
Huge wind boost and warm weather in Cleveland. I expect both SP to be a little chalky too so there’s nice leverage if this one gets out of hand with the ball in the air. Mostly a one off game though.
- DET: Grossman
- CLE: Franmil
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CATCHER
We have three catchers tonight on our radar who have HR upside. Realmuto is the coldest of them all compared to his potential talent but seeing Urias for the second time in a week should help him out and at $4,000 this is a great chance to jump on someone who has been a little too quiet. If Harper returns to that lineup it adds to potential men on Base for 2 run RBI.
Omar Narvaez is part of a Brewers Lefty stack that has a chance to tear up Erick Fedde and Mike Zunino shouldn’t mind the big wall out in left in Camden. Overall, catcher is decent and worthy of spending on at DraftKings where the cheaper SP options allow us to lock in better upside plays at C.
- JT Realmuto
- Omar Narvaez
- Mike Zunino
FIRST BASE
I recognize that Josh Bell has quietly been having a nice start to the season and although his power comes from the left side he is only striking out 5% against LHP. All that said though, isn’t it curious that he is over 5k against someone who is pitching well like Eric Lauer? The Nationals are one of my sleeper teams tonight and they don’t do anything without Bell and others not named Juan Soto having timely hits.
- Josh Bell
- Jared Walsh
- Ji-Man Choi
- Ty France
SECOND BASE
It is May 20th and any player who is good but has not done much of anything is likely about to start turning it on. You saw that with Trevor Story last night and now we should see that with Marcus Semien tonight.
- Marcus Semien
- Kolten Wong
- Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
We made Suarez the Chairman and he got hot, so even vs a RHP he is in a good spot but Anaheim is one park we somehow should be considering and Rendon is a good pairing with Jared Walsh for the Angels. I won’t sell you too hard on Maikel Franco other than the fact that I am the Maikel Franco whisperer and …. well, that’s all I’ll say about that
- Anthony Rendon
- Eugenio Suarez
- Maikel Franco
SHORTSTOP
The best position on this slate? Shortstop. You have three studs at the top who each hoave a DCPA rating of 80% or higher with Turner being in the 94th percentile. Trea will get on base and obviously has prior history hitting well in Citizens Bank Park.
- Trea Turner
- Wander Franco
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Franmil Reyes had two moonshots yesterday afternoon to the deepest part of the stadium that just managed to stay in. He is looking far more comfortable at the plate and is perfect leverage tonight against Tarik Skubal coming off his best performance of his bright young career.
Oh, and white hot Mookie Betts in Philadelphia. Should end well.
- Franmil Reyes
- Mookie Betts
- Kyle Tucker
- Juan Soto
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nick Castellanos
- Christian Yelich
- Robbie Grossman
- Teoscar Hernandez
OUTFIELD – Value Plays
- Julio Rodriguez
- Enrique Hernandez … Also known as Kike
- Jesse Winker
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- Franmil Reyes – OF – Cleveland – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Mookie Betts – OF – Dodgers
- Maikel Franco – 3B – Nationals
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
- Jared Walsh – 1B – Angels
- Robbie Grossman – OF – Tigers
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- BONUS …………………… Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
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CORE PLAYS
No pitcher should be in a ‘CORE’ for 3 entry max tonight and I would spread out your SP ownership if doing more than one lineup.
Based on position depth, these are my top 3 hitters tonight.
2B – Marcus Semien
OF – Mookie Betts
OF – Franmil Reyes
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OWNERSHIP BREAKDOWN
Pitching
It will be spread out but this is not the type of slate you want to be on too much high ownership when it comes to pitching.
For some reason the world will be on Manaea, Civale Lauer the most tonight so consider that when picking two pitchers. Honestly, if you are paying up just go full Robbie Ray experience and hope your pants are still on after 9pm. Otherwise swim in the middle range.
Hitting
Rays – I get that Baltimore is going to play better with the warm air, but this lineup is hampered without Brandon Lowe.
Astros – Facing a short pitcher, great fade spot.
Best Low Owned Offenses
Dodgers / Phillies
Brewers
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BETTING PLAYS
- Dodgers / Phillies OVER 0.5 runs in first inning
- Twins / Royals UNDER 7, Under 6, Under 5, Under 4, Under 3, Under 2.5…. and there’s your 2-0 Twins win.
- Nationals Brewers OVER 8
- Reds / Jays UNDER 8.5
- Tigers / Guardians OVER 8.5
- Texas Rangers ML
- Angels + Twins + Parlay
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