Welcome to another Sunday in The Dongers Club, a big afternoon with a couple very warm spots and then still some below average weather situations out there. We have FanDuel out here trying to throw back time as they have included two extra games on their Main slate today and DraftKings continues to act like FanDuel without the 3PM window of games.
That just means that DraftKings is truly appreciating our desire to enter a quality Sunday Tilt Slate before the Tilt-Tilt Showdown slate and I applaud them for that.
Remember to use our new and improved Daily Lineups page for information on starting lineups and a quick snapshot of the match-ups.
MLB Lineups Page – Daily Ambush
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WEATHER
All games play and here are the games which have the warmest conditions.
Camden Yards: Rays at Orioles – Near 90 degrees, wind slightly out to right center.
Fenway Park: Mariners at Red Sox – Mid 80’s, wind out to the monster.
Citizens Bank Park: Dodgers at Phillies – Mid 80’s, wind out to right field.
It is a big drop off after that with games in the 50’s/60’s in most other non dome spots. We could actually see them open the roof in Toronto, Miami and Houston today though which would help hitters in Miami and Houston. Milwaukee is iffy but the wind is blowing out there which could come into play if they leave the roof open all game.
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There are a couple interesting pitchers in the warm weather games, specifically Logan Gilbert and Nathan Eovaldi in Fenway Park and I have zero desire to use a pitcher in that stadium with that weather and how the ball has played this season in Fenway compared to the rest of the league. Eovaldi of course is coming off a horrific start against Houston and is prime to have a bounce back game with a good number of strikeouts or he just continues to have zero vertical movement and gets lit up again. Loan Gilbert will power his way through 5 innings but I don’t see how he doesn’t give up 3-4 ER vs Boston right now and so we’re just ignoring both these guys due to risk but I do acknowledge they are good and have upside.
Meanwhile the Reds are starting their head grounds keeper, it’s wild that they brought him with them into Toronto but honestly that’s gotta be who Douglas Ashcraft is, right? Seriously, who the fuck is that guy?
Oh, a quick look on LinkedIn and I found him. He is the Account Manager at Home Depot in Hawaii. Do you think that the home depot in Hawaii gets snow shovels sent to them every winter? At any rate, his MLB name uses his middle name which is Graham, but we’re on to you Douglas G. Ashcraft, Account Manager at The Home Depot and we know what you are up too.
On with the arms recommendations …
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FREDDY “MASTER P”-ERALTA
I thought the Nationals would go into Milwaukee and actually hit. Boy, what an idiot I am. They’re ice cold, especially Juan Soto, and Peralta is allowing just .184 BA against LHB with a 30%+ strikeout rate against all hitters. He’s always been a good Sunday pitcher as well and should be among the top scoring arms today on both sites.
SHANE BIEBER
Welcome to chalk city my friends. A comfortable 55 degrees with the wind blowing in at Progressive Field and the whole world will Flow on over to Bieber to save on their Pitching today. He’s just $8.6k on FanDuel, so expect about 60% ownership there and he is a flat 9k on DraftKings which will definitely push him into the high ownership tiers there as well.
All that said, who gives a shit about ownership in MLB DFS these days. Yes, it matters some on pitching if you want leverage but the bottom line is that Beebs is not going to throw up a horrible score today and so why are we going to fade him unless you stack the Tigers and why the hell would you do that my friend?
BRADY SINGER
Well, well, well…. There are some hitting options on this slate which I must have and thus the need for a dirt cheap SP2 who should be decent is going to make the list here. Singer is making his second full start of this week after he dazzled vs the White Sox earlier in the week.
Singer always had two very good pitches but needed to learn to trust his third, which he did vs the White Sox baffling them up to 9 strike outs. If he was 7 or 8k+ we wouldn’t even sniff him, but for $4900 on DK there’s no reason not to consider him when we factor in that the wind will keep the ball in the park and the Royals are winning today’s game.
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Sunday Sleepers Third Options???
Basic logic says that if you are fading one of those two pitchers above you should do it with a higher upside play. One spot which has two guys with upside is South Beach Sunday. I don’t normally attack the Braves in South Beach, but Sandy Alcantara has put together two very good starts in a row and usually does well vs the Braves — however I prefer the guy on the other side if you want to get crafty…
IAN ANDERSON
Anderson over his career is typically going to have K rates around 20-25% against RHB but in 2022 he has been hit by righties around .293 avg and only an 11.8 K%. You are probably wondering why I actually put stats in my article and wasted space with them without there being a 283 reference in there aren’t you?
Gotcha! Nope, I am simply pointing out that some positive regression is coming for Mr. Anderson and facing 7+ righties most likely in South Beach is a spot I would take a gamble on him having his change and curve working well — even against Jesus’ on Sunday.
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As for the person who is waiting for me to reference Yusei Kikuchi against the hapless Cincinnati Reds …
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DODGERS vs PHILLIES
LAD: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger
PHI: Castellanos, Segura, Herrera, Stubbs
Look what arrived in the city of Philadelphia! The old Baseball’s are BACK baby. That or someone finally let the balls sit out of the humidor long enough to soak up the current heat wave coming into town as the ball is leaving the park here finally and … holy god Zach Eflin is not the guy to be facing this Dodger lineup.
Both teams have a full compliment of players in line here and we should most definitely be looking for a good amount of offense out of this game. How does Freddie Freeman leave Philly without a homer? How does Trea Turner leave Philly without a 4-5 game? Look for Edwin Rios hitting cleanup at $3100 to definitely tilt the hell out of you, but Freddie Freeman is going to homer in his first AB, so don’t sweat that too much.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Adley, Urias, Santander
DK build with Urias being a core play on FD as well. Pricing makes this a fantastic pairing with the stars in the game above.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer
I pride myself on knowing prospects. But I sadly am not in tune enough with the Reds prospect system beyond the known guys they have called up already and I will do better with that. Here’s our scouting profile on one Douglas G. Asscraft.
Physical Description: Tall and sturdy. Muscular back. Thick core and lower body. Country strong. Composed and confident. Bulldog mentality. Maxed out. High character.
His best pitch seems to be his slider, but this guy just screams poor mans Brad Keller and nobody wants to be a poor mans Brad Keller. Simply put with the Blue Jays you cannot throw them fastballs and a kid making his debut not being able to throw a fastball when he has control issues is going to lead to lots of men on base and welcome to the season Mr. Teoscar Hernandez.
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Other favorable hitting teams: Boston, Seattle, Tampa, Milwaukee (in that order)
Nobody else is high up on my list at all besides these teams above.
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CATCHER
For $2,000 on DraftKings, the super-rook Adley would be our preferred play in a warm Camden Yards if they play him back to back games.
- Adley Rutschman
- Garrett Stubbs
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
Loaded position today and I would be shocked if you are happy with anything less than 18 DK fpts here.
- Freddie Freeman
- Vlad Guerrero Jr … Ice Cold, the big multi-HR game is going to come out of nowhere and they have moved him up to the #2 hole today
- Ji-Man Choi
- Edwin Rios … Probably the chalk play of the day on DK and a good stack option on FD with Freddie.
SECOND BASE
- Max Muncy (2B or 3B)
- Jean Segura
- Vidal Brujan
- Rougned Odor
THIRD BASE
Both Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers seem to be homering every day and both are difficult fades today if you are comfortable with a cheap SP2 like Singer (or yes, Kikuchi, fine…). But something tells me I would rather spend in the OF1 and 1B than 3B, so I will fade both today and pray….
- Ramon Urias + Adley is all the value you need today on DK.
- Justin Turner
- Brad Miller
SHORTSTOP
- JP Crawford
- Trea Turner
- Matt Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Some big names with big prices in the outfield today. But I am eyeing some players who I think will come up with lots of men on base in high leverage spots against the SP over guys who grade out well. Teoscar needs to see dead red fastball with men on base, which is the key for him and if he gets it, then just wait for that 3-run HR notification. Same is true for Castellanos and JD Martinez while Harold Ramirez is the best of the value plays on my list today.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Nick Castellanos
- J.D. Martinez
- Harold Ramirez
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
I almost threw Mullins and Bellinger into the Mt. Rushmore here, they are that good of plays.
- Harper, Bryce
- Cedric Mullins
- Mookie Betts
- Cody Bellinger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jesse Winker
- Marcell Ozuna
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Julio Rodriguez
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- Ramon Urias – 3B – Orioles 6th Hole – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Max Muncy – 2B – Dodgers
- Nicholas Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- JP Crawford – SS – Mariners
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- BONUS …………………… Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Rays
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CORE PLAYS
The dew point near 80 in Camden yards and Citizens Bank Park is the CORE build for me today above anything else. I want half my lineup(s) to come from those games and then build around Peralta or Bieber as your SP1.
Freddy Peralta
Freddie Freeman
Max Muncy
Nick Castellanos
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OWNERSHIP BREAKDOWN
The Yankees and Coors games probably don’t take as much ownership as you think on FanDuel but they do take some which is nice.
Shane Bieber insane chalk. Not bad chalk.
Expect the Rays, Brewers and Guardians to be popular, none of which I love today.
Low Owned Spots:
- Dodgers/Phillies good teams who are getting ignored.
- Gilbert/Eovaldi/Anderson/Merrill Kelly low owned SP’s with upside.
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BETTING PLAYS
Pretty good night last night indeed, Saturday’s have been nice betting wise, lets do it again today.
First off — whoever wins the first game of the CWS/NYY game is NOT winning the night cap game tonight.
- Baltimore Orioles ML +145
- CLE + MIL + KC Parlay
- Overs in TB/BAL, SEA/BOS and LAD/PHI
- Unders in CIN/TOR, ATL/MIA, MIN/KC
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