We kick things off on what should be a better week this week and it’s because this is May Appreciation Contest Week!
Look for the first contest to be tomorrow a fine random Tuesday, May the 24th with round two being on Friday and then the third round being May 31st.
Contest rules will be officially announced tomorrow but the contest will be weighted based upon how the Chairman Does in each of those nights. Look, it’s a free contest for you and I am the one paying out the prizes, so I am going to make up the crazy rules how I see fit.
Remember to use our new and improved Daily Lineups page for information on starting lineups and a quick snapshot of the match-ups.
MLB Lineups Page – Daily Ambush
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WEATHER
All games play, unless of course they don’t.
We could see a delay in Washington or Atlanta, but both are pretty low risk IMO.
Roof closed in Arizona. Greinke must be in town!
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Last Monday I mentioned that we likely were going into a week of Mt. Rushmore negative numbers from pitchers. Well, I personally think I found one a day and am glad to say that is out of our system now. Hopefully nobody is breaking down from our selection pool this week, but it sure does feel like the pitchers are breaking down lately.
The other thing which continues to stand out to me is that your going to be in the running each night if you simply take two good pitchers (assuming they dont have shoulder issues like Peralta) and ride them for 60 fantasy points as a nice floor. The days of needing that stack that put up 12 runs and 3 homers just aren’t consistent.
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ZACK WHEELER
So all of that leads me into Wheeler and Cole below this. These two are facing offenses that have high strike-out upside on them and for Wheeler he is trending up in terms of his usage and durability as he got a late start and is now looking like his 2021 dominant self.
Atlanta chases a good amount and all nine hitters have K% rates vs RHP sliders that are above 20%. Look for a potential 10+ K game from Wheeler today.
ADRIAN HOUSER
Prior to yesterday vs Alex Wood, the Padres had not beaten up any SP who was a heavy Sinker Ball usage pitcher against them. This is something that guys like Machado and Hosmer are not good plays against and to back things up historically the combination of Cronenworth+Profar+Machado+Hosmer+Myers & Kim are a combined 1-27 against Houser with 5 strikeouts.
GERRIT COLE
The Orioles aren’t a team to pick on when they are at home but on the road this young lineup definitely struggles. I trust Cole to repeat his performance from last outing against Baltimore on May 18th in Baltimore when he held them to 2 ER over 7 innings with 5 strikeouts.
They need a long performance from him after a rough double header sweep last night, which is where his major upside could come. Otherwise, he is not my primary lineup build tonight.
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SLEEPER PICK
JOSE BERRIOS
Put this one into the wild card / gut feeling category. This Blue Jays vs Cardinals game catches my attention given that it’s an inter-league game which tends to make it a spot for offense. But I see both pitchers doing well and Berrios is most certainly going to be the higher upside, lower ownership play who is worthy of taking a shot on today.
The Cardinals generally do not chase a ton, but they are a RH heavy lineup and that helps Berrios, who is known for being a slow starter each season but is coming off a 7 inning, 35% CSW game against a decent Seattle lineup.
If his breaking pitch feels good in a big park tonight, he could have a huge shutdown game against the team who just put up 18 runs on Sunday.
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Other SP Notes:
Miles Mikolas – Doesn’t throw a ton of fastballs which is good vs the Blue Jays but also has a hard time missing bats consistently.
Triston McKenzie – Pitching VERY well and nobody is really talking about it. But he is a tall SP which we don’t love vs Houston and they’re not a team who I want to attack with him tonight.
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We continue to not see too many “stacks” go off completely, but we will continue to look to identify which teams we’re going to target for big games and primary exposure of that one or two key players.
GUARDIANS (DK)
Jose Ramirez, Framil Reyes (CLE) … Myles Straw
Love both J-Ram and Franmil tonight under the radar… Franmil is someone we have been waiting for a break out game from and he has that RHP who throws mostly fast balls in as good of a park as we have on the slate tonight.
Javy Baez, Miguel Cabrera (DET)
Rowdy Tellez, Andrew McCutchen (MIL)
DIAMONDBACKS
Ketel Marte, David Peralta
Nice of the D’Backs to honor Greinke on his return to Chase Field by closing the roof for him. Doesn’t matter, at most he will pitch 4 innings and then some jack ass wearing a Royals uniform will come in and throw a bunch of fucking balls, load the bases and then Cal Eldred will take his old fat bald overpaid worthless existence out to the mound and say a few things like “how come you arent more like Brad Keller, you know back in my day I once struck out two dudes in the same inning, you should do that”, and then waddle back while the pitcher scratches his nose and then decides to throw a hanger that gets roped for a bases clearing double by Ketel Marte.
Other then that, the Royals are doing great.
Sincerely,
Mrs. Lincoln
DODGERS (Easier to play on FD)
Trea Turner, Freeman, Chris Taylor
L.o.A? Law of Averages on the LA Dodgers tonight? Outside of Mookie Betts and a Trea Turner double there wasn’t much excitement from this team on Sunday but the return of Trea to Nats Park and a SP in Joan Adon that doesn’t miss any bats + a moderate at best bullpen makes it hard to imagine the Dodgers not posting an 8 or 9 spot tonight with a bunch of 2 and 3 run innings.
Honestly, I would rather pay up for pitching on DraftKings than load up on Dodgers bats, but their bottom of the order has value in it. The top guys being Freddie and Trea if you are on FanDuel.
I would rank my preference on them as: Trea Turner, Freeman, Bellinger and then either Taylor or Lux has a HUGE game at the bottom of the order. Strong lean for Taylor as a 4th man in a stack.
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Also expect to do well offensively: Phillies (Segura, Bohm, Hoskins), Brewers (Tellez, McCutchen), Tigers (Baez, Miggy)
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CATCHER
- MJ Melendez – Road Catchers in Chase
- Keibert Ruiz – A little revenge narrative? Yes, but he is just hitting well and that’s why he is here.
- Adley Rutschman – If you keep giving me talent for free I will play the talent for free.
FIRST BASE
- Prince Frederick Freeman
- Miguel Cabrera
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
There are three tiers on 2B tonight and the mid tier is Marte only and the low tier is Gorman only. It’s a thin position as usual which should be prioritized below other spots if nobody is in a stack here.
- Jean Segura
- Ketel Marte
- Nolan Gorman – The 2k Price on Gorman along with OF Value is all the value one needs tonight for a Cole/Wheeler lineup.
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Alec Bohm
- Bobby Witt Jr
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Javy Baez
- Jeremy Pena
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
The Diamondbacks have 3 guys here in Smith, Peralta and Thomas that each are recommendations and should be prioritized based upon where they hit in the lineup.
Do not pay up on Outfield tonight.
- Franmil Reyes – Draws a 50% fastball pitcher, the 2 HR game is coming
- Pavin Smith
- Nick Castellanos
- Cody Bellinger
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Andrew McCutchen
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
OUTFIELD – Value
- Julio Rodriguez – Take my comments on Adley and apply them here.
- Chad Pinder – 3rd hole has a .228 xISO in the matchup split vs Marco Gonzales and is min price.
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- Jean Segura – 2B – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Javy Baez – SS – Tigers
- Franmil Reyes – OF – Cleveland
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Cleveland
- Chris Taylor – OF – Dodgers
- Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers
- MJ Melendez – C – Royals
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- BONUS ……………. Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers
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CORE PLAYS
I am definitely on the train that this is a 2 man build from under the radar teams facing mediocre/bad pitching tonight. My favorite three teams that fit that mold are the Guardians (J-Ram/Franmil), Diamondbacks (Smith/Marte) and Tigers (Baez/Cabrera). I can make a case as well for the Brewers (Tellez/McCutchen).
So for 3 entry-max builds the anchor of one of Cole/Wheeler is a must in 2 of the lineups and playing both becomes much easier when you start to build around those 2 man correlations above.
I will have Franmil Reyes, Javy Beaz and Pavin Smith as my three core hitters from those teams mentioned above across 1-3 lineup(s) along with the chairman, Jean Segura from the Phillies and then work in the Dodgers around that the most.
I do not believe you have to be stacking tonight to win, but I do believe you will want to build using a 2-2-2 approach to start and when filling in pieces it never hurts to add onto the teams you already have.
SP Combo Rankings (DK)
- Wheeler & Houser
- Houser & Berrios
- Wheeler & Cole
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OWNERSHIP BREAKDOWN
Wheeler and Cole will be good pitching chalk today and I do not see leverage attacking either one as much as you want to look at the name of the Braves and say, oh yes, lets stack them. I’m not biting.
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BETTING PLAYS
Detroit + Cleveland ML Parlay
Blue Jays ML
Guadrians/Astros OVER 8.5
Brewers ML
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