This is an odd Thursday for late May as just one afternoon game today and even the Detroit Tigers have a rare home night Thursday game tonight. It’s a bigger than normal Thursday slate too so we should enjoy what we have in that regard. WEATHER There are two games which have weather to monitor for PPD risk and definitely a delay risk. Each game has good SP options in them as well. Guardians at Tigers – Light but increasing as they go on. Phillies at Braves – Heaviest of the spots, highest PPD risk. Other notable weather items, but no risk: Brewers at Cardinals – Light rain, game should play fine. Dodgers at Diamondbacks – Roof Closed [spacer height=”20px”] I could list anyone first and your response is most likely going to be … Because that is just what we have tonight as we go through the various options on this slate. Let’s discuss them in greater detail though, shall we? MARTIN PEREZ Welcome to the Martin Perez show ladies and gentlemen, come one, come all. He isn’t just shutting down the Astros like he always does, he is shutting down everyone. On the season opposing RHB are hitting just .219 against his Cutter and .219 against his Change-Up. Oakland’s RHB? They’re not good vs either pitch either as no hitter has an xWOBA Over .283 against both pitches. Oakies bad. Perezezezs good. Thank you for coming. SHOHEI OHTANI Toronto has been better of late with lowering their strike-out rates and Vlad/Springer are hitting the ball hard again and soon Teoscar will as well, but he won’t hit Ohtani tonight. Ohtani has a life time 9-2 record at home with a 2.20 ERA, and that is notable because on the road it is 4.89 over his career as a pitcher. So there’s some logic to saying I’ll take Ohtani at home and with Toronto only sitting dead red or running into a hanging slider right now they’re likely to be chasing a lot of bad pitches today, giving Ohtani a nice strikeout floor in a nice 69 degree Anaheim Stadium. FRANKIE MONTAS Montas took a bad line drive off his hand the other night forcing him out after 1 2/3 IP and this is someone who the Athletics should be cautious with as he is their big trade chip that remains. Could the hand be flaring up? Possibly, but…...
Keep reading — and get the full war room.
The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:
- Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
- Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
- Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
- Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
- Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
- SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine
