We have some nice weather conditions on this Memorial Day weekend and with the most underrated month of the calendar year (June) coming up I am most definitely in a good mood today, so let’s Ambush the Competition.
On this day in 1982, Cal Ripken did not play. He would go on to play the next 2,632 games. It’s a shame he didn’t make it to 2,803 games.
On this day in 1995, Yankees SS Derek Jeter made his Major League Debut going 0-5.
On this day in 2010, Phillies SP Roy ‘Doc’ Halladay tossed a perfect game. He opened the game with a 3 ball count to three of the first four batters he faced.
These nuggets courtesy of @theaceofspaeder on Twitter.
[spacer height=”20px”]
WEATHER
The weather today is very nice and all games will play and with favorable conditions for hitting.
[spacer height=”20px”]
MAX FRIED
Lots of good high end pitchers on this slate today, but I trust Fried to continue his solid May run where you know you get 6-7 innings out of Fried, an efficient pitch outing and 6-8 strikeouts. The Marlins offense usually does better when they go into Atlanta, but outside of Cooper and Soler I don’t see much in this lineup that should have any chance of pushing Fried out of this game early. Plus, he’ll get plenty of run support.
LUIS SEVERINO
What’s more American on a Holiday weekend than going to Costco on a Sunday afternoon? That’s what we’re going to do here as we have a very nice pitching match-up between Sevy and Sugar Shane down in Tampa with two cold offenses in the pitcher friendly warehouse.
I prefer Severino for the cost difference because there are limitations with McClanahan being trusted to go deep and also the Yankee lineup looks like it could actually avoid a high strikeout game against McClanahan today based on some of my pitch type metrics. For the cost savings, Severino should match Shane and continue his resurgent season.
KYLE FREELAND
Rather than write up a third guy who is in the 8-10k range, we should take a gamble on a cheaper arm today. Freeland does a good job generally of keeping the ball on the ground and for $6,100 he has the best chance to deliver a 5+ inning game without a ton of damage off him. If he can keep Cruz from jacking out a HR today then Freeland likely walks away a winner.
[spacer height=”20px”]
My Fade …
TRISTON McKENZIE
The one thing you cannot do to the Tigers is just sit back and throw 4-seamers which is entirely what McKenzie does. The one good thing he has going for him is that he gets a good amount of swinging strikes outside the zone on his fastball and that’s where the Tigers help pitchers out, but I think there’s a ton of risk here today with a chalky McKenzie. I’ll fade and hope the good Tigers appear out of nowhere.
[spacer height=”20px”]
Other pitching thoughts
I don’t hate McClanahan and Cease but I think there’s runs in the Chicago game so I’ll pass on Cease having his big bounce back spot today and McClanahan to me might see a drop in K production today
[spacer height=”20px”]
TWINS vs ROYALS
Buxton, Polanco
Poor Zack Greinke and Sonny Gray, this game should be one of the better ones for DFS purposes this afternoon as Target Field is warming up and the Twins are not going to let the Royals just come in and sweep them at home. Twins OF Max Kepler left the game yesterday and went for an MRI, so if he sits that would be a shame but it also opens up some Twins OF value. The Royals bullpen is not good right now and so a short outing by Greinke only will lead to the entire lineup having more crooked innings later in the game.
WHITE SOX
Abreu, Anderson, Grandal, Vaughn
The Ambushh stack of the day. Chicagoo will blitz Stroman in the first inning as the Windy City battle continues and is going to fly way under the radar.
The White Sox have been banged up and quiet and the wind is projected to be gusting in at this game. No worries, take the over and watch Stroman have a rough time against the White Sox as Jose Abreu begins to finally have his heater.
BRAVES
Olson, Acuna, Ozuna
Sorry Eliese, we aren’t in South Beach here today. I am not sure how Matt Olson won’t finish with 3 hits today and one of them isn’t a double.
[spacer height=”20px”]
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Salvador Perez
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
This is a clear cut A or B option on DK while both of these guys are going to be my anchors on FanDuel in 1B/UTIL positions. The problem though is that I wouldn’t just blindly fade the catchers above as they’re good here too, but basically don’t sweat it either way as Abreu+Olson lead the way here today.
- Jose Abreu
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Whit Merrifield
- Nolan Gorman – DK Value
THIRD BASE
There are a lot of good hot hitters here in J-Ram, Witt and Austin Riley — not to mention Raffy Devers on a Sunday. But the value which Harold Castto presents also as leverage is very tempting to save $ today.
- Harold Castro
- Jose Ramirez
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Tim Anderson
- Javy Baez
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Some high priced guys in really good spots on DK today.
- Byron Buxton
- Max Kepler * – Questionable … If he is out and Alex Kiriloff is called up to take his spot and Kiriloff starts then he will continue to own the Royals and is a must start.
- JD Martinez
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – TIER 2
- Randal Grichuk
- Nelson Cruz
- Ronald Acuna Jr
OUTFIELD – Value
- Andrew Benintendi
- Andrew Vaughn
- Robbie Grossman
- Trevor Larnach
[spacer height=”20px”]
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Rockies
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
- BONUS ………….. Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORE BUILD
Max Fried
Jose Abreu
Jorge Polanco
Harold Castro – Best value pending the Twins lineup
[spacer height=”20px”]
OWNERSHIP ANALYSIS
SP ownership will be spread out a good amount although Triston McKenzie on DK should be one of the more popular plays vs the Bad Tigers offense. The Tigers are our leverage against him mostly because they offer value to secure two solid SP’s. Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes probably is lower owned than he should be however there are some elements which have me avoiding him today.
The highest owned offense will be the Red Sox for sure with the Twins second and the Nationals/Guardians up there as well due to value.
White Sox are the low owned team who has high upside.
[spacer height=”20px”]
BETTING PLAYS
Twins/Royals OVER 8.5
Braves + Twins + White Sox ML Parlay
Cubs/White Sox OVER 7.5
[spacer height=”20px”]