Monday, May 2nd
Just six games on the MAIN slate(s) today, which will begin at 6:40 PM down in South Beach with the visiting Diamondbacks taking on the Marlins. All total there are three games with totals below 7 tonight, a clear sign that Vegas is done buying into the MLB theory that games are going to suddenly start going over. Buyer beware though, I don’t trust the MLB to not be working hand in hand with Vegas, but maybe that’s just the conspiracy hat going off in me.
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WEATHER
Three domes and games in Baltimore, New York and Oakland means the only thing we care about is RAIN and unlike the rest of this week there is none tonight thankfully.
We could see both domes in Miami and Houston open though.
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MAX FRIED
It is time for Fried Day in the Dongers Club. I/We missed out on his big start in LA two starts ago but I will be all in on Fried against the Mets who are coming off a big Sunday Night Baseball win and are a team which Fried has really pitched well against. It always seems to take Fried a few starts to get into the season and now he is rolling along. Expect 6-7 strong innings with limited damage (if any) and 6+ strikeouts on his way to a win.
Fried is the anchor SP today.
PABLO LOPEZ
The Marlins vs Diamondbacks game will draw lots of SP ownership and for good reasons. Pablo Lopez has been dominant to start the season and is just a damn good pitcher against both sides of the plate.
Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks are not the team that you always want to pick on given how many pitches they take and how well they’re putting the ball in play and thus I am tempered one xpecting Lopez to throw up a dominant outing, but he is much preferred over Gallen.
ZAC GALLEN
Yes, it is a “revenge” narrative if you want to go down that route for ole four eyes and he is extremely good against RH bats which is the core that this Marlins lineup provides. I just think we can easily find the right CORE hitters to pair with Lopez and Fried and that combination gives us lower ownership (due to Gallen’s price) and the same upside that Gallen has — if not less risk.
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Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
Poor Julio Rodriguez has been victim of two crimes this season. He has had the most non strike called third strikes on him among any player and he has the wrong photo on both FanDuel and Draftkings last I checked. This is the real J-Rod and this is the kid who is making his mark early.
Rodriguez has started to show power and has the luxury of having seen Odorizzi already onc ein his short career, so with Eggs being a guy that doesn’t have a put out pitch I trust J-Rod to square one up tonight off him.
Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
Twenty-two of Mullins thirty home runs a year ago game at home in Camden Yards and they didn’t change anything about right field where most of them landed. Not to mention 21 of the 30 came against RHP and Chris Paddack allows a .307 ISO on his fastball to RHB. Square one up first pitch tonight Big Ced.
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SEATTLE MARINERS
Rodriguez, Frazier, Winker, Kelenic
The Mariners are swinging the bats very well and the prices on the 7-8 combination of young Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are auto plays right now. Rodriguez in particular is white hot and is out performing everyone else in his own teams lineup but remains a major discount
The ‘reverse splits’ eggs over-easy match-up should benefit Ty France who I left off here only because he is 6k on DK, but in my mind it’s buy time on Jesse Winker and between Adam Frazier and JP Crawford you wont win a tournament on the Mariners without one or both of them. Great lineup to stack around today and this is coming from a guy who rarely tells you to stack-stack-stack blindly.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Stanton, Donaldson, Hicks
All streaks come to an end. Some people say you ride a streak until it dies though and that is a great scenario we have tonight. The Jays are not the team you think they are against LHP, so don’t be on the wrong side in this marquee game opening things up today.
The Yankees roll in and win 7-2.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Mullins, Santander, Hays, Odor
Until I see a visiting team come into Baltimore and drop 8 spots on the Orioles pitching at home I will not be recommending the visiting teams. And until Chris Paddack pitches 90 pitches and 6 innings in back to back starts I won’t give him credit for being an improved pitcher. Yes, he is throwing a curve ball more now but he’s still not going deep and he is still going to fail to get away with that first pitch “get me over” fastball to Cedric Mullins tonight.
This is also bad news for all of you because if the Twins do put up an 8 spot that means the flood gates are opening up right before the Royals come into Camden. Sooooooo, lets go Os!
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CATCHER
There is not much worth spending for on Catcher today, so we are really just bargain hunting.
- Robinson Chirinos
- Ryan Jeffers
- Kyle Higashioka
FIRST BASE
- Ty France
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Adam Frazier
- Ozzie Albies
THIRD BASE
- Josh Donaldson
- Jose Miranda – For $2k we get a rookie making his debut vs the Orioles today. Not the worst save money spot in the world.
SHORTSTOP
- JP Crawford
- Carlos Correa
- Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Julio Rodriguez
- Max Kepler
- Cedric Mullins
- Giancarlo Stanton
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jesse Winker
- Aaron Judge
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Value
- The Mt. Rushmore is the Value tier sans Giancarlo Stanton….
- Trey Mancini
- Aaron Hicks
- Anthony Santander
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- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Yankees
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Nobody – C
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
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Core Plays
Max Fried
Julio Rodriguez
Cedric Mullins
Ozzie Albies
Top Value: Jose Miranda and Robinson Chirinos
Expected Chalk
Twins
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Orioles, Mariners, Braves
Favorite Bets
Twins/Orioles OVER 7.5
Braves ML
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