Both sites have a 6 game evening/Main slate which includes G2 of the Brewers-Cubs Double Header.
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WEATHER
All games play without issue.
Roof projected OPEN in Chase Field and TBD in Texas.
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WALKER BUEHLER
A recent stretch of rough starts could keep some off Buehler but this is when he turns it around and just starts to trust his primary pitches against a weak lineup.
DAVID PETERSON
The Mets could use some length from Peterson today and the Nationals won’t strike out a ton against him but his 51% ground ball rate is 2nd highest on the slate to Aaron Ashby who is also a viable SP2 but will have some windy conditions in Wrigley to deal with. Good park, mediocre offense against him and a fair price point has Peterson as a comforting SP2.
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Other Thoughts … Zac Gallen has upside with how Atlanta strikes out a ton but with the roof open I will pass on using him at all today. Drew Smyly and Aaron Ashby are next best believe it or not on my list tonight but the wind should continue to push the ball out of Wrigley so I can’t really pull those triggers.
I am not on Drew Rasmussen vs the Rangers and think they will continue to hit well.
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AMBUSH STACK
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rojas, Smith, Varsho, Marte, Thomas
‘Zona will see Spencer Strider to open it up for Atlanta, who can be good enough to go 2-3 IP but this is a lineup that walks at a high rate and should be patient to not chase too many pitches. Given the price and how well Arizona has been this month I trust stacking them with Boston over other spots.
GOOD WEATHER, GOOD PARK, BAD SP
The Boston Red Sox
Xander, Devers, Verdugo, Story
I have this theory that the Red Sox at home are always the play on a Holiday and this concludes the 5th game of a long rare extended series, which means if they get into the bullpen they will continue to pile things on.
Boston has scored 7 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 games and has hit double digits three times in that stretch. The one downer was a 1 run effort, so there’s really no middle game with this offense right now.
SNEAKY GAME
Rays vs Rangers
TB: Kiermaier, Franco
TEX: Seager, Semien, Calhoun
If they do open the roof in Texas this game shoots way up on the list. Glenn Otto should be a good prescription to help cure some cold Tampa bats while the Rangers even back home should continue to hit. Semien, Seager and Calhoun are all locked in right now.
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CATCHER
- Daulton Varsho
- Christian Vazquez
FIRST BASE
- Christian Walker
- Freddie Freeman
- Ryan Mountcastle
SECOND BASE
- Trevor Story
- Christopher Morel
THIRD BASE
- Josh Rojas
- Brad Miller
- Patrick Wisdom
SHORTSTOP
- Wander Franco
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Mookie Betts
- Pavin Smith
- Manuel Margot
- Kole Calhoun
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Alex Verdugo
- Alek Thomas
- Starling Marte
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- Josh Rojas – 3B – Arizona Diamondbacks – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Manny Margot – OF – Tampa Bay
- Kole Calhoun – OF – Texas
- Trevor Story – 2B – Boston
- Ryan Mountcastle – 1B – Baltimore
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CORE BUILD
Arizona + Boston with Texas/Tampa as value.
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OWNERSHIP & LEVERAGE
Not much leverage tonight other than I will be fading Gallen and recommend it as well.
For hitting the Dodgers will be a fade.
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BETTING PLAYS
Arizona ML
If Texas roof is open then the over in that game.
Nationals/Mets UNDER 9
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