Here is a sign of the times in Major League Baseball.
Minnesota at Baltimore, with an over/under of 7 flat. You read that correctly friends and no the pitching match-up is not Johan Santana vs Mike Mussina.
Simply put, it is what it is at this point.
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WEATHER
Update, the Pirates and Tigers has already been PPD but I refuse to delete what I wrote below….
Two inter-league games which are part of 2-game series which have low risk tonight. Neither one should have major PPD concerns but both do have return series later in the year where the home team tonight visits the road team to finish up their ‘rivalry’ series.
Who decided the Pirates and Tigers is a rivalry? Was this like the nerdy pimple faced kid who drools and the shy red-head girl at the middle school dance who watched Cleveland/Cincinnati pair-up and then Chicago/Chicago pair-up and Toronto decide for Atlanta (over Pittsburgh) and Milwaukee choose Minnesota leaving these two left staring at each other only to later become the best damn inter-league series every single season?
Yes, these are the things which keep me up late at night. Anyways, we have Pirates-Tigers tonight, rejoice!
Oh, the other inter-league game with light rain is White Sox-Cubs.
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JOE RYAN
Both pitchers in this game have been going very strong to start the season, but the main difference here is obviously that Bruce Z has to deal with Buxton/Correa and Joe Ryan – who is just dealing right now – has to deal with A Mancini/Mountcastle/Odor heart of the order which he should strike out in a row.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
The Reds are horrible. Just fucking terrible. We can ignore Joey Votto being a Miller Park beast and just calmly take Woodruff at home vs the worst offense in Baseball. Cincinnati has had something like 2 games this year where they have more than 2 batters get 10+ DraftKings points.
Woodruff is coming off a short 4 inning (21 BF) outing but he still struck out 6 and has a near 30% Called-Strike Whiff rate. A SP game stack with Mahle is of interest here too.
JULIO URIAS
A season ago we would have not touched a LHP vs the Giants and in this series we definitely wouldn’t have taken the bait of the Dodgers. But right now this Giants offense is dead to me and Urias should get up to 90 pitches tonight allowing him to go deeper and matching Rodon.
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Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
Look for some more offense in Houston today than what we had last night, and that’s not saying too much but Jose Altuve is the table setter for Houston that must have a big game for the Astros to knock Flexen out early.
Raimel Tapia – OF – Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will jump on Taillon today and even though he is good against RHB I expect the top of the order guys to manage to get on base setting up a potential big multi-RBI double for Tapia. The strongest pitch Taillon has to lefties is his curve-ball and Tapia has a .753 xSLG against that pitch through this season so far.
Whit Merrifield – 2B/OF – Royals
They sell high, we buy low. This has been a focal point of players in this section which is information that I hope carries over from day to day as we move along for you.
Whit Merrifield, like all the Royals, has not had favorable results thus far in 2022 and today they have dropped him down to 5th in the order. Many feel he just needs a day off but right now he has a current Ironman streak going and has actually showed signs of breaking out of his slump.
His contact rates are good and his hard contact is coming around as well. Look for the shift in the lineup lower in the order to provide a spark on Whit.
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We continue to not want to force stacks out there, but here’s the teams who jump out at me the most. Basically just pick on the worst possible pitchers we can find right now because stadiums/weather really don’t matter that much and until later this month the Bullpen’s dont seem to matter either.
HOUSTON ASTROS
vs Chris Flexen Deez Nutz
A scenario where the RHH should do well against Flexen and the LHH are the ones who are the best on the team right now. Everything opens up for Bregman or Altuve being a key core in this stack today.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
vs Jameson Taillon
George Springer/Bo Bichette
These two remain my favorite 1-2 combination to correlate together, but if the Jays do damage it will be clutch hitting with men on base and that opens up RBI chances for the middle part of the order like Tapia, Gurriel and Collins.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
vs German Marquez
A good value filler team, with Josh Bell off to a good start is the donkey stack of Washington in Coors. I believe Marquez pitches well but the bullpen should allow you to get 1 or 2 options out of this cheap lineup.
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CATCHER
- Mike Zunino
- Zack Collins
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- Josh Bell
- Yuli Gurriel
- I am going to go vomit in my mouth now
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Abraham Toro
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Matt Chapman
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Jose Iglesias
- Carlos COrrea
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Whit Merrifield
- Yordan Alvarez
- Raimel Tapia
- Nelson Cruz
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- George Springer
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Juan Soto – 4800 Soto in Coors, should end well, right?
- Charlie Blackmon
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Max Kepler
- Julio Rodriguez
- Yadiel Hernandez
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- Alex Bregman – 3B – Houston – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Jose Iglesias – SS – Rockies
- Josh Bell – 1B – Nationals
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- Mike Zunino – C – Rays
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Nationals
- BONUS …………………… Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
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Core Plays
Ryan and Woodruff
Houston: Jose Altuve / Alex Bregman
Toronto: Raimel Tapia / Bo Bichette
Favorite One Off: Whit Merrifield (OF)
Expected Chalk
Rockies
Angels
Astros
Nationals
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Blue Jays
Favorite Bets
Reds +1.5
Yankees/Jays OVER 7.5
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