It is a ‘quiet’ Thursday night and our opponents are probably bummed that they did not have Cedric Mullins, Mookie Betts and 100% Milwaukee last night so they are once again sitting and lying in perfect position to be Ambushed today on a slate which is void of the easy button pitching of the first month of the season.
WEATHER
All six games will play.
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<Logan Webb was wrote about in this space. In fact, It was a hell of a write up if I do say so myself. The kind that would most definitely win me an award for the most thorough breakdown without actually saying a damn thing wrote on a day when Americans celebrate someone elses Holiday for their own… So we move on, away from Logan Webb as our no doubt about it number 1 tonight and we try to find a new SP2 since the guy below this becomes the SP1….>
SHANE McCLANAHAN
We will see where the ownership comes in when the slate locks and honestly I don’t care about sweating MLB ownership that much, but getting Sugar Shane at lower ownership than Robbie Ray will be glorious and our perfect leverage tonight. His path through Winker-Suarez-Crawford tonight is going to be the key and our projections have him cruising through them. It’s a little pricey for Shane coming off an 11K outing but results > value and he will give us strong results.
<… Well shit…. We have reached that point where I have to now find another SP that I want to use on my main lineup aaaaaand …?>
JESUS LUZARDO
Well, the saying Jesus take the wheel definitely feels appropriate here. Luzardo will fill in as my SP2 although he is equal to my third SP option today who is the darkhorse candidate in my mind (Skubal). For Luzardo the results this season have been very strong as he is pitching with a ton more confidence and has been virtually unhitable by LHB. He should do well against Machado and on a slate where I think the chalk SP will get beat up he becomes someone that can be good enough.
TARIK SKUBAL
When identifying cheap pitchers we focus on buying low on talent or attacking bad offenses. In this case I am opting for buying low on talent in Skubal.
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FADE
Aaron Nola – Phillies vs Mets
One of my random theories is that the Mets/Phillies games in Citizens Bank Park always go over in the first game of the series and there’s no reason for Nola to be this cheap against a lineup he can historically have some good games against. It’s going to be warmer than it has all season in Philly tonight and this re-match series is going to feature pleanty of overs. We are fading Nola and he is the only guy who can burn us.
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METS/PHILLIES
I am setting the O/U on home runs hit in this game at 3.5. Take the over. Nimmo owns Nola (and for good reason given how Nola pitches and Nimmo’s swing style), and McNeil, Dom Smith and Pete Alonso should all be automatics in a Mets build today. I would not be shocked to see this game put up 15 runs combined, so just look for a couple game stack lineups with this one and hope the Phinatic hacked into the humidor and put in some 2019 Baseball’s for us.
And oh yeah, Taijuan Walker is NOT repeating his brilliance vs Philly that he had back at the start of the season…
Mets
- Brandon Nimmo
- Pete Alonso
- Dom Smith/Jeff McNeil
- James McCann
Phils
- Nick Castellanos
- Kyle Schwarber
- Jean Segura
Tigers, Rays, Marlins, Orioles, Padres …
I am lumping all of these teams together as there really isn’t another spot that I would load up on tonight like Milwaukee/LA last night. But these teams all have individual players or match-ups that warrant thinking about them.
The Twins will be chalky vs the Orioles but outside of Byron Buxton I am not buying anything there.
Detroit gets to go into Houston where they seem to always hit well. Maybe it’s that long flight from the cold of Detroit to the warmth and stench of Houston that does it, I don’t know but Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario and Austin Meadows have to do damage vs Urquidy — a guy that people do not attack enough and someone who gives up way too much Hard Contact to still be pitching.
Baltimore is facing Chris Archer. Chris Archer fucking sucks y’all and I lose respect for anyone who had ever touted him as an Ace pitcher. Archer has to be more pleased with the wall changes in Camden Yards than anyone else because no team has hit more HR off Archer than the Orioles and no road stadium has destroyed Archer more than Camden Yards (16 HR in 11 games). Different times, different strokes, yada, yada, yada. F him. Tony Santander takes him deep.
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CATCHER
West coast Mike Zunino returns to Seattle and gets a LHP who I have been waiting for his one horrible start all season. Zunino obviously never caught Ray since they have never played together, but I still have this Tyler Flowers vs Chris Sale type feeling where Zunino (who has homered off Ray before) just see’s the ball very well in SafeCo(T-Mobile) tonight and wins someone all the live final seats today.
- Mike Zunino
- James McCann
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso / Dominic Smith – Welcome to my hell on DraftKings today where you can only pick one. $1100 difference here so make your decisions elsewhere and then just fill it in.
- Trey Mancini
- Yandy Diaz – For the Tilt/Tilt slate crowd.
SECOND BASE
- Jeff McNeil
- Rougned Odor
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Jeimer Candelario
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Brandon Crawford
- Miguel Rojas
- Francisco Lindor – Has gone Ice Cold, buyer beware but Love the Mets so if he is in your stack then ok.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Byron Buxton
- Brandon Nimmo
- Nick Castellanos
- Robbie Grossman
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Austin Meadows
- Kyle Tucker
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – Value
- Tony Santander
- Max Kepler
- Avisail Garcia
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- Mike Zunino – C – Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Jeff McNeil – 2B – Mets
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- Byron Buxton – OF – Twins
- Brandon Crawford – SS – Giants
- BONUS …………………………… Robbie Grossman – OF – Tigers
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Core Plays
- McClanahan & Luzardo, although going with a Skubal longshot is not a bad hail mary today.
- Mike Zunino
- 2 Mets: McNeil For sure
- 2 Phils: Nick Castellanos & Alec Bohm – if he is hitting 2nd.
Expected Chalk
- Houston
- Minnesota
- Philadelphia
Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers
- NY Mets
- Tampa Bay – Leverage on Robbie Ray
Favorite Bets
- Mets/Phillies OVER 9 … Nine? The total is NINE???? Fuck the moon, this game is going to Jupiter.
- Detroit +140 ML
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