I don’t want to jinx anything but I think the real 2022 MLB season is arriving this week. Pitching is going to get harder, bullpens are going to get worse and offense is going to go up.
That said, I did a full breakdown on how we need to adjust our measurement of hitting in the new dead ball era that you should go read and I think that it will continue to hold true. But I cannot overlook three definitive things which are going to influence DFS for the next 3+ weeks or so.
- Bullpens have been reduced. Teams have to trim down their rosters from the expanded extra limits in the first month.
- Hitters are getting into their rythym. They have enough regular season + spring training PA to finally be in a good routine.
- Weather is much better.
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WEATHER
Weather should finally be nice this week and it’s about damn time. All games play!
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JULIO URIAS
Gimme all the Julio Urias today.
His recent game log chart has been trending towards a massive dominance game which he should be able to do against the Pirates. This is the first game on the slate and I am very pleased that DraftKings did the right thing including this spot today. Look for Dave Roberts to trust him to go deep here as well to buy another rest night for the bullpen and with how efficient he has been + the Pirates being his opponent, a 30 spot is not out of the question.
AUSTIN GOMBER
The entire world will rush to Carlos Rodon today. That’s nice. Yeah, Rodon vs the Rockies outside of Coors might feel like a no brainer spot but Austin Gomber is pitching extremely well and the weather/park in this situation is going to benefit both sides today.
Gomber has managed to only walk 2 batters over his last 18+ IP and the park shift will help reduce any chance of a HR off him as well. Load up on the Gomber as a contrarian Monday pivot off Rodon on DK.
MACKENZIE GORE
The Cubs are ice cold and Gore has shown he feels very comfortable pitching in PETCO Park.
Chicago played the Sunday night game and then had a long trip out to San Diego where they bring in a 30% strikeout rate over the last 10 games and a .173 average as a team. Depth is not a major concern for Gore either and with his price compared to Woodruff and Rodon he should be 2-5% owned tonight. He’s our pivot off those guys.
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PHILLIES
Going from the Mets pitching and Max Scherzer to Chris Flexen Deez Nutz is going to benefit the Phils. SafeCo/T-Mobile park is quietly one of the best parks right now and I don’t know if that has to do with the fish market influencing the Baseball’s or just some undetected shift in the universe but I do know that Flexen sucks vs RHB and Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto will keep the line moviong after Harper and Schwarber walk.
Phillies score 8 today.
- Rhys Hoskins
- JT Realmuto
- Alec Bohm – if he hits 2nd!
- Nick Castellanos
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MARLINS @ DIAMONDBACKS
Roof open in Chase Field with two guys that strike out hitters at an extremely low rate (Castellanos only 11% on lefties, 17% on righties & Elise is just 21% on lefties which the DBacks could roll 7 out tonight).
Ball In Play, Run(s)
- MIA: Splish Splash Jazz, Sanchez, Avisail Garcia
- ARI: Varsho, Smith, Ketel Marte
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BREWERS
The lock of the night is Milwaukee hitting a HR. Just guessing which guy it comes from off Luis Hyeena Castillo is a very difficult task. Rowdy Tellez makes a lot of sense here but 1B is deep, so I have my eye on Willy Adames, Luis Urias and hello Omar Narvaez
- Luis Urias
- Omar Narvaez
- Willy Adames
- Rowdy Tellez
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ATHLETICS
Our contrarian stack tonight is Oakland, hard to fit in on your primary lineup but #1 on your “what the hell, let me add another lineup because it’s a Monday in May”, lineup.
At some point this season Michael Pineda will give up 7 ER and then head himself to the IL never to be heard from again. So I can definitely see the Athletics doing that in this big park where the ball will find grass and just run. Just bummed Jed Lowrie isn’t playing.
- Sheldon Neuse
- Sean Murphy
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CATCHER
- Omar Narvaez
- Sean Murphy
- Daulton Varsho
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FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Rowdy Tellez
- Jose Abreu – FD
- Freddie Freeman – DK
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SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Jean Segura
- Splish Splash Jazz Chisholm
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THIRD BASE
- Luis Urias
- Alec Bohm
- Sheldon Neuse
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SHORTSTOP
- Josh Rojas
- Willy Adames
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Pavin Smith
- Avisail Garcia
- Christian Yelich
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Harper, Bryce
- Seiya Suzuki
- Randal Grichuk
- Tommy Pham
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Seth Brown
- Trent Grisham
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- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Trent Grisham – OF – Padres
- Nicholas Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- Pavin Smith – OF – Diamondbacks
- Sheldon Neuse – 3B – Athletics
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- BONUS ………………. Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
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Core Plays
- Julio Urias (DK)
- Rhys Hoskins
- Brandon Lowe
- Pavin Smith
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Expected Chalk
- Dont know
- Dont care
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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers
- Phillies
- Austin Gomber
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Favorite Bets
- Athletics ML
- Marlins/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
- Rockies ML
- Phillies + Padres ML Parlay
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