Three drivers led the bulk of yesterday’s XFINITY Series race from Dover, 55 or more to be exact and that sort of trend is what I would expect for today’s Cup Series race. The Cup drivers will turn 400 laps for a total of 400 miles, therefore dominator points will be a factor when building lineups today. Dover is a one-mile concrete track with 24 degrees of banking in each turn. It’s one of the only tracks (along with Bristol) that is concrete all the way around. Last year the most laps led went to none other than Kyle Larson who paced the field for 263 laps en route to a second-place finish. Kevin Harvick led the most laps in the race here before that (223) in a race that he won while the race prior Denny Hamlin led 188 laps.
Most comparable tracks: Darlington Raceway, Bristol Motor Speedway
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
Kyle Larson ($11,800), Starting 3rd
The aforementioned Larson has been a force at this track with seven top-fives in 13 races here with one win. Larson has led 137 or more laps in four of his 13 races at the “Monster Mile” and starting in the top three today makes the driver of the number 5 Hendrick Motorsports car a strong candidate to lead a chunk of laps.
William Byron ($11,000), Starting 33rd
Larson’s teammate, William Byron should find himself as one of the highest owned drivers on the slate. After not finding a lot of success at Dover early on, Byron has grabbed the checkered flag in the fourth position in each of his last two trips here while starting 23rd in one of those races. On Sunday he’ll start 33rd leaving plenty of room for place differential points making him a more than attractive cash game/single entry play.
Tylr Reddick, ($8,800), Starting 22nd
Starting back at 22nd, Reddick finds himself at a track that he’s had moderate success at as he approaches his prime in the Cup Series. Reddick grabbed an eighth-place finish in his last race here and has two top-fives in five races at the XFINITY level here. Reddick blew an engine last week at Talladega but thus far has three top-five finishes and is a dark horse to win this race.
Chase Elliott ($11,300), Starting 4th
Along with Larson, Elliott is my pick to lead a good chunk of laps, and based on practice speeds, talent, and general equipment it wouldn’t be a shock to see these two stars lead the majority of Sundays laps. This will make lineup construction tough as Elliott, Larson, and Byron (a top place differential candidate) are all high-up in the pricing category. It’s not feasible to roster all three so there will be some tough decision’s to make. As far as the “Larson vs. Elliott” debate, I’ll have more exposure to Larson while sprinkling Elliott into some GPP lineups.
Aric Almirola ($6,600), Starting 27th
A.A. is simply a low-ceiling, solid floor cash play in a race where there’s a lot of questionable value. Almirola has had solid finishes in four of his last five races here and we’re simply looking for a top 18-20 finish to make rostering the Stewart-Hass driver worthwhile.
Harrison Burton ($5,000), Starting 35th
Joey Logano ($10,600), Starting 22nd
Todd Gilliland ($5,400), Starting 34th
Cole Custer ($6,100), Starting 30th