There are three “slates” today.
2PM: Three games. This is considered the Early on the Dashboard
4PM: This is considered the MAIN on the Dashboard. This is FanDuel’s MAIN which includes the 7pm games as well (larger slate) and on DraftKings it includes 8 games.
7PM: This is considered the LATE and is really only worthwhile on DraftKings.
There is a double header today between the Padres and Rockies, Game 1 is on both the DraftKings and FanDuel 4PM slates. Game 2 is on the DraftKings 7PM slate. MacKenzie Gore is pitching in game 2, so that’s a bummer on FanDuel.
This article is covering the 4PM Main slate, which will include analysis for the FanDuel/7pm games.
It’s okay if you are confused… I was too.
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Here’s the main games
4PM
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) vs Phillies (Wheeler)
Brewers (Lauer) vs Nationals (Corbin)
Pirates (Thompson) vs Braves (Morton)
Athletics (Montas) vs Guardians (Plesac)
Blue Jays (Gausman) vs Tigers (Brieske)
Marlins (Garrett) vs Astros (Valdez)
Orioles (Wells) vs Royals (Lynch)
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7PM
Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Giants (Long/Bullpen)
Yes, there could/should be some shadows that come into play in this game and it’s an interesting one to consider on the DK night slate later tonight but for the FanDuel MAIN afternoon slate I have zero desire to touch this game.
Cubs (Swarmer) vs Yankees (Montgomery)
Similar scenario here, except without the shadows. These teams played stupid baseball last night not knowing how to play the extra innings rules and thus burned through some relievers. Look for Montgomery to pitch very well in a low scoring Yankees win.
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WEATHER
All games play.
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ZACK WHEELER
Wheeler is back off paternity leave and will look to keep the Phillies hot streak going. He definitely should win the game today with the way the offense is swinging the bats and the Diamondbacks will continue to swing and miss as they have lately which puts Wheeler in a position to have a double digit strikeout game.
KEVIN GAUSMAN
The Tigers are the worst offense in the league right now. Worse than the Athletics, worse than the Brewers, worse than your local little league team who shows up with fancy uniforms and 8 coaches but plays like the bad news bears.
Lately on DraftKings it’s been better off taking the mid range pitching but it’s very tempting today to just lock in on Wheeler and Gausman and move on.
ZACH PLESAC
Among the mid range value options today Plesac and the Royals Daniel Lynch are the two who have the best chance to not get blown up too bad.
It’s Plesac though vs the Athletics who I would trust more as they project to have a .296 xWOBA against him and outside of a couple innings each night they’re putting up lots of 0’s.
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This is going to smell a lot like last night’s article in terms of some of the target teams we are looking at today.
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Houston: Altuve, Gurriel, Pena, Alvarez
The Astros left lots of men on base in critical situations last night and it was mostly due to the bottom of the lineup players not being able to get a key hit off Pablo Lopez early in the game. Today they should be able to survive better as Garrett does not have a good off-speed out pitch which was killing the bottom order guys like Chas, Maldy and Pena last night. I expect Houston to put up 8+ runs today.
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Toronto: Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Chapman, Gabe Moreno
Hello, I am here to once again lock in Teoscar Hernandez and stubbornly play the “he’s due” game. The Blue Jays should once again be able to tee off on the Tigers.
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Milwaukee: Adames, Urias, Tellez
Back on the Brewers vs Patrick Corbin for some good value in a nice splits spot. Do not sleep on Yelich going yard work here and he fits in as the final piece of a 5 man Brewers stack with McCutchen, Adames, Urias and Renfroe.
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Other offenses:
Philadelphia – Realmuto (Lock), Hoskins
Atlanta – Acuna, Olson, Ozuna
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Today’s BOOST+ Players
Oscar Gonzalez, Luke Voit, Hunter Renfroe, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette, Rhys Hoskins, Yuli Gurriel, Alec Bohm
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CATCHER
After getting a rare day off last night Realmuto should be back in the lineup today and draws a favorable spot vs MadBum.
- JT Realmuto
- Gabriel Moreno – 2K … Expected to make debut today for Toronto. A good prospect worth taking for min price.
- Victor Carantini
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FIRST BASE
The Astros cant score 8 runs without Yuli having a clutch hit or two.
- Yuli Gurriel
- Rhys Hoskins
- Matt Olson
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SECOND BASE
Very simple analysis here. For $3400 on DraftKings we lock in on Luis Urias. And for $3800 on FanDuel you lock in on Jose Altuve. Got it? Thanks.
- Luis Urias
- Jose Altuve
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THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm
- Matt Chapman
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SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Jeremy Pena
- Willy Adames
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OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Yordan Alvarez
- Christian Yelich
- Jorge Soler … Remember that first pitch in the world series when Soler hit a ball off Valdez? I don’t think it has landed yet still.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Andrew McCutchen
- Hunter Renfroe
- Jurickson Profar
- Jack Suwinski
- Lane Thomas
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The Dongers Club
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Brewers
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
- Bobby Witt JR – SS – Royals
- BONUS …. Jorge Soler – OF – Marlins
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CORE BUILD
Primary SP Combo: Wheeler & Plesac
Top Studs – JT Realmuto, Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez
Top Value Hitters – Milwaukee Value … Urias/Adames/McCutchen
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BETTING PLAYS
Milwaukee + Houston + Philadelphia ML Parlay
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