A Sunday without Coors on either site and a quiet 3 game afternoon tilt slate today. So this should be a good Sunday slate which has a little bit of weather that you’ll have to monitor.
WEATHER
I think all games will end up playing but there will be lingering rain that could come into play at these spots
Cubs vs Yankees – Rain could cause slight delay.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies – Very light precip chance.
We also have some pretty warm spots, including a Dew Point of 84 in Kauffman Stadium, 81 in Busch Stadium and 78 in Truist Park. Expect some HR boosts today.
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MICHAEL KOPECH
The Chicago White Sox remain the biggest waste of talent in the 2022 MLB season. But in DFS we trust the talent despite the teams struggles and Kopech against the Rangers is a scenario where he’ll need to be their steady force.
I don’t think Kopech has a problem with Seager today and so only Marcus Semien likely has a chance to hit him hard in a lineup which has lots of strikeouts at the bottom.
RANGER SUAREZ
Suarez is dominant against lefties, although early this season he was iffy vs them, but that’s what he’s going to do. The Diamondbacks are a lefty heavy team who is at the end of a long road trip and ready to get on a plane and go back to Arizona.
So it should go something like this… Ground ball to short, throw to first, one away… Pop fly caught by Bohm in foul territory, 2 down. And now the 1-2 pitch, Strike 3 looking on the outside corner. Suarez goes 1-2-3 in the first off just 9 pitches and the Phillies are coming to bat.
Rinse, repeat for 8 innings…
The streak continues today with a 1-hit (Ketel Marte double), 5 strike-out shutout by Suarez and whoever they decide to let pitch the ninth inning today.
JUSTIN VERLANDER
It’s highly unlikely that you’ll find an article today which does not mention Justin Verlander simply because the choices are very thin today. The Astros should have put up about 20 runs already in this series but just haven’t had any breaks go there way and this feels alot like the Pirates/Dodgers series from a week or so ago.
But even if there is weird stuff causing them to get swept at home by the Marlins I wouldn’t think that weird stuff is Verlander struggling against a RH heavy lineup.
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Sunday Sleepers …
This day is loaded with garbage names and honestly I wouldn’t fault you for taking a longshot play on any of them but I just have no desire to really get that cute today. They all feel blah and boring. Paolo Espino for $4k against a bad Brewers offense right now probably gets someone to roster him. Don’t be that guy.
Kyle B. Nelson is making his first start for the Diamondbacks today. More like Kyle B giving up homers.
Sure, Jose Quintana is a veteran who knows how to pitch on Sundays. The Braves also haven’t lost to a lefty since the Carter Administration.
Jon Gray? No, it’s not 2017.
Graham Ashcraft is 9600. He could put up a 20 and you still wouldn’t convince me that he was a good paly.
Dean Kremer vs Brad Keller is like watching two pigs fuck in a blanket at your Girlfriends house while her parents are in the room with you.
Jeffrey Springs and Bryson Sands. You might feel some Pride and Joy if you manage to roster one of these players without a negative score, but it won’t be DFS related.
Ditto for the stripper Ross Stripling. I mean yeah, the Stripper is $6900 and facing the Tigers… Soooo. Okay, there we go. There’s our Sunday Sleeper. Chalky Ross Stripling. Awesome.
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There are two teams who haven’t lost all month facing LHP that they should smoke in the Braves and Phillies. My honest gut opinion is that they both fail to put up some 13 run game that everyone else is going to be assuming they will do and thus they’re great Sunday fades from a stack perspective. But snabbing a one off here or there from both lineups is extremely logical.
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Tampa Rays: Margot, Diaz, Arozarena, Paredes
Twins SP Cole Sands hasn’t had easy starts vs Yankees/Astros at home but even though this is the Rays I don’t like this spot for him either. They saw him in Tropicana Field earlier this year so they have a feel for what he’ll do and getting whiffs is not part of what he will do. Look for a big game from Margot & Diaz to get on with Arozarena and Paredes having bring htem home potential.
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Brewers/Nationals: Adames/Yelich … Hernandez/Soto
Despite high humidity and dew point it’s not incredibly warm in Washington today. But over the last week or so the major trend in MLB is blown leads after the 5th inning. The Brewers middle bullpen is struggling and the Nationals middle bullpen’s middle name is struggle. There’s potential for lots of crooked numbers in this game.
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KC Royals: Merrifield, Perez, Dozier
Five of the projected hitters in the Royals lineup have strong power upside against Dean Kremer, granted one of them is Michael A. Taylor so his power is basically a rope to the shortstop but with great weather and a couple Royals hitting better of late I can see this team paying off today.
Hunter Dozier is a must.
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Today’s BOOST+ Players
Ronald Acuna (oh dear)
Christopher Morel
Anthony Santander
Byron Buxton
George Springer
Dansby Swanson
Cedric Mullins
Yandy Diaz
Ike Parades
Santiago Espinal
Adam Duvall
Randy Arozarena
Ketel Marte
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CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Willson Contreras
- Victor Caratini
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FIRST BASE
- Hunter Dozier
- Vlad Jr
- Daniel Vogelbach
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SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Christopher Morel
- Isaac Parades
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THIRD BASE
- Yandy Diaz
- Alec Bohm
- Josh Donaldson
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SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Jeremy Pena
- Javy Baez
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OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez … If Edward Cabrera (a 6’5 rookie) throws Yordan Alvarez a fucking Change Up today then just laugh all the way to the damn bank.
- Randy Arozarena
- Teoscar Hernandez … Ah. I see what you did Toronto. I see and I likey Teoscar sliding down one spot.
- Nicholas Castellanos
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Manuel Margot
- Christian Yelich – $4200 price on DK, expect big time chalk here.
- Cedric Mullins
- Austin Meadows
OUTFIELD – Value
- Victor Reyes
- Adam Duvall
- Michael A. Taylor
- Jesus Sanchez
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The Dongers Club
- Randy Arozarena – OF – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Manny Margot – OF – Rays – Co-Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Hunter Dozier – 1B – Royals
- Javy Baez – SS – Tigers
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Victor Caratini – C – Brewers
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- BONUS ……………….. Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
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CORE BUILD
Go underweight on the “Hot” chalk: One Brave (Ozzie), one Phillie (Casty or Bohm)
Ride or die with your Sunday sleeper SP, Suarez/Kopech both low owned. I am going with both + Rays RH stack.
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OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS
Verlander likely 40% or higher. I like fading him on a main lineup with one out of 3 in a 3 entry max using him.
Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Royals top owned offenses. Astros mid range.
The Braves likely due to pricing on DK aren’t going to be as highly owned as you would think.
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BETTING PLAYS
Tampa Rays / Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5
Braves + Phillies ML Parlay
Brewers + Blue Jays ML Parlay
White Sox + Rays ML Parlay
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