We will have just this singular article today as this is the only slate I am putting much energy into for today. There is a moderate night slate tonight that is four games and includes Coors Field on it on DK.
Technically this is the MAIN slate for FanDuel and Afternoon slate for DraftKings. Both sites have the same set of 9 games on them and none of the games are part of double headers today either, which is nice.
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WEATHER
HOU vs KC: Kauffman Stadium could have a combination of Rain and Sewage today. The rain is being provided by Mother Nature and the Sewage is being provided by all hitters not named Bobby Witt Jr on the Royals. This game should play but with rain coming in as the game moves into the later innings.
All other non roof games are good to go.
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This is a very good pitching depth slate.
DYLAN CEASE
Cease got back on the path to his stellar season last outing and should continue that today vs the Rays. Most of the damage on Cease this season has come from RHH and the Rays RHH do not hit RHP very well, so he is expected to continue with another 30% strike out performance.
TRISTON McKENZIE
McKenzie is quietly having a season which deserves way more recognition than he is getting and he is the type of pitcher that if you haven’t faced him before you likely will struggle. His last three starts he has gone 7+ innings in each vs the Tigers, Astros and Twins and didn’t go over 100 pitches in any of them. He does this because he gets a good amount of swings up in the zone early and puts guys away with his Slider & Curveball’s which are both 30-40% strike-out rates vs LH and RH.
The Orioles are a good team for him to feast on and only Odor has a prior PA vs McKenzie. I wouldn’t be shocked if he struck out 7 Orioles the first time through today.
BETTER THAN SEX
MacKenzie Gore vs Aaron Ashby.
What an electric match-up between young lefties in Ole Miller Park. Logically they both should be very electric but with other guys having some soft match-ups I prefer the three guys above but wouldn’t hate it if you used either of these kids.
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What stands out the most to me on this setup is that the stack ratings aren’t very high and with some very quality pitchers going I think we could see some lower scores or more one off type builds today. That or a 2-2-2-1-1 construct makes a lot of sense.
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PIRATES
KeBryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jack “Sparrow” Suwinski
I think I mentioned before the story about Zach Davies now ex-wife outing him for just leaving her for some road skank and since then he has been lit up like a 40 year old French Hooker and I am being polite when I say that. The Pirates young kids have been hitting well and should continue that vs the head case Davies today. They are at the top of the model for good reason.
GUARDIANS
Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario
Much like last night the Guardians should be able to put the ball in play vs Tyler Wells (Very low 15% strikeout rate and .515 xSLG to RHH). Wells has had luck with his change vs LHH but Josh Naylor has a .257 ISO on that pitch this season and the park sets up well for him as well.
I could honestly see a Cleveland stack without Jose Ramirez doing well today too from a price perspective on DK.
ASTROS
Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
Houston vs Kris Bubic is not fair, it’s just not. Really if someone said give me the perfect pitcher for the Astros to destroy it would be Bubic. He might not last long because of them limiting him here or rain possibly too, but it’s hard not to play Altuve at 5100.
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Contrarian Spots
WHITE SOX
Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada
I wouldn’t be able to promote the White Sox heavy given how they have played, but they could find a nice little get right spot against a pitcher in Drew Rasmussen that has been expectantly solid. Ras’ gives up harder contact to the right side, which Vaughn/Abreu just leapt out at me first glance in this game.
It wouldn’t shock me to see the White Sox jump out and do better than the “too obvious” Astros.
GIANTS / MARLINS
The Giants and Marlins have lots of factors going in their favor today. The roof likely is closed in Miami but it has been playing fine for offense and Jesus Sanchez is hitting the ball hard for the Marlins which could be the low owned game stack of the day.
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Today’s BOOST+ players:
Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Garver, Joey Votto, KeBryan Hayes, Oscar Gonzalez, David Peralta, MJ Melendez, Cedric Mullins, Jack Suwinski, Jonah Heim, Josh Rojas.
Josh Rojas is no doubt homering.
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CATCHER
- Mitch Garver
- Tyler Stephenson
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Josh Naylor
- Michael Chavis
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
- Owen Miller
THIRD BASE
This is 50% of the equation when I said you can build the Guardians without Bubba Ramirez today. There are a ton of 3B options here today and they’re all considerably cheaper than Ramirez.
- KeBryan Hayes
- Josh Rojas
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
- Amed Rosario
- Rodolfo Castro
- Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds
- Juan Soto
- Jack Suwinski
- Jesus Sanchez
OUTFIELD – Contrarian / Tier 2
- Joc Pederson
- Kyle Tucker
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Chas McCormick
- Andrew Vaughn
- Oscar Gonzalez
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- Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Mitch Garver – C- Rangers
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Josh Rojas – 3B – Pirates
- Amed Rosario – SS – Guardians
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- BONUS ……………………. Josh Naylor – 1B – Guardians
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CORE BUILD
Dylan Cease
Jose Altuve
Jack Suwinski
Bryan Reynolds
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OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS
The Marlins/Giants game is not one I would roll on a main lineup, but in a 300-500 person field it’s a good second lineup game stack.
Otherwise I really don’t see any huge leverage spots.
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BETTING PLAYS
White Sox ML – 3 units
Pirates ML
Marlins/Giants OVER 7
…
…
why did I just get the urge to bet the Royals ML +150?
I’ll stop now.
Good luck!
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